Two year old sales should be retired

[AscotStud]

When a Tb breeder breeds for speed only, the soundness is sacrificed.

Slightly off topic, and I'm not trying to be an ass. But Louis, are you saying that if you breed a mare who sprinted and started 40 or so times to a stallion that sprinted and ran 30-40 times you would be breeding an unsound horse. As opposed to breeding the same mare to a router who started only 15 or 20 times. You would be adding stamina, but a less durable horse to the equation...IMO

[dray33]

I've started a new thred specifically about the Barretts Sale. A summary of the race records of Barretts' grads whose previews were the fastest. dray, I think it addresses head on some of your arguments. If nothing else, it points out how few lifetime starts most of these horses made.

Welcome back. I read the data. So I have to ask, do you believe it is a better investment, statistically, for a buyer to buy from a yearling sale or a 2 year old sale?

[Noor]

In 2006, 3,107 2 year olds were sold at public auction for an avg price of about $70,000

In 2006, 10,142 yearlings were sold at public auction for an avg price of about $57,000.

Which 3,107 of these yearlings should be compared?

[dray33]

Not sure what that means, but I would guess a comparison of all horses bought as yearlings vs. all horses bought as 2 year-olds. Year after year, where's your best shot, on average, in your opinion? I'm talking simple ROI metrics.

[Crystal]

when you take on Dray when it comes to statistical sales data,, you better have studied for the SATs...

[Bid]

Dray- getting back to your question on distance stallions, certainly AP Indy and El Prado are tops. With my wallet, I have to find value in horses like Louis Quatorze and Regal Classic etc. Of the young guys, I'm interested in Louie's son Repent. I really like Perfect Soul and Artie Schiller. I'm not sure they will get the mares to help the cause. Even with the Mr. Prospector, if I had 25K to throw at a horse English Channel makes a compelling case.
With the exception of Repent, everyone of these had 18+ starts. There's something to be said about that. I for one am tired of the 4 starts and off to stud environment that we have now. I know it's unfair, but I measure every horse by the greats of the 70s and early 80s- especially Bid. Those horses won more Gr.1s than horses today have starts. Again it's the fast cash and the speed breeding without regard for the sport.
I'd be interested in the group's thoughts on distance sires. I just don't see many left.

[dray33]

Pleasant Colony is a source of stamina, right? Interesting you mention Perfect Soul. I dont know much about him, but his racing data looks impressive. I think a fave of mine, Broad Brush was a major distance sire, I just happen to have one of the few sprinters he threw off! El Prado is the real deal. And I agree, it's important to have the race record to back up the pedigree in a stallion, shows some sturdiness. Something about a horse that makes 4 starts becoming a sire seems wrong.

[Bid]

I went to FT Timonium in Dec to buy a Perfect Soul weanling out of a Riverman mare. He went out of my range. As I mentioned, I'm a small player. Someone else must think something of him, because there wasn't any money there. He just seems to have the combination I look for. I forgot about the 2 sires you mentioned. Any young distance you like? BTW- I started a thread on the Lasix theory.

[zinn21]

You would think after several decades of 2yold in training sales the market would just dry up with ROI numbers a financial black hole-instead they thrive with discussion of regulation as a means of ending the insanity.

These sales are one of the best arguments that the rich are undertaxed.

[Bid]

Zinn- you mean there is a return on investment in racing? I'm a project manager in my real life and I would have crashed this project years ago if ROI mattered. People are always going to want to buy the finished product rather than wait for the younger horse to develop. You buy a car off the lot even if it lacks options you want rather than wait for one off the asembly line. The arguement that there needs to be responsible horsemanship is valid although unattainable when money is involved. As a rule I shy away from regulation on anything. But limits can be set on breezing and drug use to protect the horses and the buyers.

[Noor]

dray, you didn't answer my question. Which 3,017 of the yearlings should be compared to the 3,017 2yo's which sold? Surely you can't believe that a comparison of the select group of 2yo's which have been hand picked from the 10,142 sales crop is a valid one? That would be like asking how do Harvard graduates compare to all college graduates.

[Fireslam]

All of those 2 year olds sold were not from select sales, if you are talking all 2 year olds sold. Many of those sales are not select sales.

[cewright]

These sales are one of the best arguments that the rich are undertaxed.

Perhaps these sales are an idiot tax on the wealthy like the state lotteries are an idiot tax on the masses.

Chuck

[Noor]

Fireslam, true, but from the data I've seen, between 90-95% of the Barretts 2yo's sold as yearlings. It's fair to say that percentage would generally hold true for the other 2yo sales.

Clearly, comparisons are fine so long as you're doing with correct methodology. Comparing a sub-group to the entire group is fallacious.

[geowarrior]

I think you're right about the tax, now should it be called the Snaafi Dancer Tax or the Green Monkey Tax?