Two year old sales should be retired

[dray33]

dray, I gather that you are involved at some level in pinhooking. If so, can you tell me the preview times of your horses?

I am a pinhooker. For about 4 years now Noor. This year I took 8 to the sales, and targeted Calder only. 4 of them we breezed the "traditional" way, consigned by Hoby Kight. For the first time, we decided to slow-breeze 4 of them (what we call Zephyr breeze). These were to be two-minute licked without the use of a whip. We also requested that Fasig-Tipton announce the strategy before the work, and shut off the clock. These horses went "un-timed". You can see the results here:

http://fasigtipton.sitespace.com/

One of the 4 horses needed more time before the show, so take a look at the following:
Hip 15: Smarty Jones filly
Hip 30: was our scratch.
Hip 75: More than Ready filly
Hip 166: Menifee colt

Look at the breeze, notice they are un-timed, unforced and un-whipped. Also, in my humble opinion, notice how beautiful they look. The first horse on the track was the Menifee colt, and the rider really gave him a choke hold, for fear of going too fast. The two fillys he was more comfortable, and they moved perfectly.

The aftermath is: we received many compliments on the group, and compliments on the physical nature of the horses, and how well put together and bright/alert they were at the barn. However, I doubt we got any serious bids, they all fell far short of my reserve (which was BELOW my purchase price). I was willing to sell them at near break even to people who liked the product, just to kick start the program... but I was NOT willing to GIVE them away after 6 months of development. They were all but ignored (except by Terrence the announcer, who was very kind, a real gentleman about these horses).

I kept them all, and will happily race them. Of the other 4 traditionally breezed horses, I sold 3. 1 at a loss, 2 with nice profits. The market is hungry for perfect, fast young horses. And nothing else. I would like to think there are horseman willing to step up and notice these type of horses and be willing to buy them fairly... there is not. Not YET at least. I think eventually, there will be... i HOPE there will be.

Dray did the response you got at the sale change the way you'll do things for future in training sales? Will you be sending any of those 5 to CA for training?

Thanks for asking Diane. If the horses I keep go on to do well, yes, I will do this, year after year until people take notice. If the horses I sell traditionally do well (which they have so far) then I have a lot to think about. So, basically, I am not sure how it will all play out.

The experiment continues.

[dray33]

... these babies are pushed along to get to the sales while their bodies are crying out for just one person to say "stop" . Just somebody with an ounce of common sense and patience to notice a particular horse that would benefit by NOT trying to get to the sale because this is insane!!...

This is the worst of it all, sadly.

[Noor]

dray, good for you for stepping outside the box. In your estimation, what is the best way to forge a reasonable format for 2 year old sales?

Imposed by sales co.? Imposed by racing jurisdictions? Imposed by hosting racetrack? Negotiated between the above and the principals?

Since we agree that the killer works are detrimental to the sport, what can be done to change the system that promotes it?

[Jenny]

The really sad thing is that these are living, breathing animals not race cars with changeable parts that can be removed and fixed. Once these horses are injured it is game over. I think it is sick and cruel to push these animals when clearly they are not ready. Injecting baby's joints!!! you should be ashamed of yourselves!!!!

[Bid]

I also applaud Dray's efforts. As a buyer I'd prefer the horses not be worked. I know my people are going to handle them correctly after I get them. I just don't want them ruined. Unfortunately, the only way to stop this is regulation. Many of the buyers probably aren't aware of the issues. They give tons of money to an agent. The agent justifies spending it by telling the buyer "I got you the fastest horse at the sale". We all know about the back room deals many make to skim money. I've seen it firsthand. An agent agrees to buy a horse for X dollars with the promise of a kickback. I'd like the opportunity to compete with these guys if they actually had to buy on pedigree(God forbid) and looks.
You would probably see the overall quality of racing improve if these horses weren't pushed. Imagine how many talented horses we have never gotten to see race because they were ruined by starting too early. Maybe the answer is to not allow racing until November of a horses 2yr old season. Then not allow 2yr old sales before September. Just a thought. They'd still be ready for the 3yr old races to Derby prep. I realize what that does to the Breeders Cup, but just run it in Dec.

[dray33]

I think the whole issue here can be summed up with Noors words: "what is the best way to forge a reasonable format for 2 year old sales?"

That's what this really is about after all. It's easy to jump on the bandwagon and bash the two year old sales. Believe me, you can do the same in the development of yearlings. You can't trash the juvenille market and remain silent on the issues affecting the yearling market. We can't eliminate yearling sales, right? Responsible horsemanship in both markets, thats the thing. And there is no guarantees, so as always, it's buyers beware. Know your consignor, know the horse.

The issue goes back to what can be done.

First, regulate it all. Eliminate steroids from the sales. If a horse needs steroids to recover from injury, they should not be allowed to sell. They need time off, period. Yearling or Two-year old.

Second, full disclosure. This effects the yearling market amd the juvenille market. This includes surgeries, cosmetic and otherwise. Medications. A full sheet.

Third, for the two-year old sales: Limit breeze times. They do it in Japan. Do it... nothing under 11 seconds. Personally, I could care less if they eliminated the clock and the whip all together, but short of that... LIMITS.

I would hope that slow breezing horses would matter a bit. But no one really cares. At least not yet. Will they? Maybe. You can say "I'm all for it" but are people willing to spend money? Not yet. The MARKET, thats us, we DEMAND big, healthy, strapping yearlings, conformationally perfect. And we DEMAND lightning fast two year olds. Nothing changes that fact. Today. Maybe it'll change tomorrow, I have no idea. I'm skeptical.

It's not about killer works. Everyone is against "killer works". That's like saying "I'm against flag burning." No kidding. Let's talk tougher issues. Unsound breeding practices, breeding speed to speed without concern of soundness. Jacking up weenlings and yearlings. Breezing horses too fast. It's not one thing, its all things. It's not about the responsible MAJORITY of breeders, yearling and 2YO consignors , it's about the irresponsibility of a few. The horses can suffer at all points along the way, not just at the fast breeze show. Of that you can guarantee. The market will speak, the market will react.

What is sad is the market is continually becoming polarized. Theres the big ticket, big score, crazy levels, and the rest is dead. Silent. Dropping out.

I don't have the answers. I just know what side of the fence I am sitting. Responsible horsemanship is a guiding principal... like most in the biz i think.

[Bid]

Dray, I agree it's a combination of everything and the buyers drive the market. I also realize it happens at yearling sales. I don't wish to eliminate the 2yr old sales. As you mentioned, it's not the breeze at the sale that ruins the animal. It's the push to prepare for that work- starting too soon, drugs etc. that does the harm.
I believe that more people would breed differently if the speed work wasn't the driving reason to buy at the sale. Buyers might be more inclined to buy pedigrees that show soundness and run classic distances. Heck, they might actually put up money for a turf horse.
You're right in that it will continue as long as people tolerate it. And it will be tolerated as long as people are making a quick buck. I too fear for the market below the few headliners at the top. The sport seems to be hollowed out to some extent. Sounds too familiar to my other favorite sport of boxing.

[dray33]

I react negatively to anything that smacks of blame-ism, like saying "Two year old sales have to stop". That's a one-sided reactionary statement, and worse, it's a blind one. I don't need to go into all the supporting evidence of how the 2Yo sales is a buyers best shot at recouping his/her investment dollar. It's simply fact. But we would be just as blind not to agree that some horses are NOT cut out to be in these sales, that there is pushing, injecting and all the other badness that accounts for the unsoundness of the horses.

So let's focus on JUST the 2YO sale. Here's an issue: Nearly every horse breezes within a range, lets say 10.0 (ish) to 11.0 (ish). Nearly every horse is bred for speed. The bell curve is ridiculous. So now, buyers are left to distinguish based on that, which horse is best. Now they clock the gallop-out. Everyone knows it. Again, the ever maddening desire for speed. So horses that breeze 1-2-3 eighths are actually breezing 3-4-5 furlongs! Watch the videos, some are whipped to the wire, and asked for speed after. For pinhookers to turn a buck, they need to find precocious, perfect animals, ones that can withstand the rigors of training, present them, have them vet, have them breeze within the acceptable range, have them spotted and bid on. Yikes!

This year I lost money... but I have great horses to lessen the blow It would have been a disaster but my El Corredor colt sold very well, bringing my numbers up. At first, he almost didn't make the sale, Fasig-Tipton thought he might be too weak on pedigree, and asked to consider if he should be in. I pushed the point... and it saved a dismal year for me, he is a monster talent.

Bid, you said: " I believe that more people would breed differently if the speed work wasn't the driving reason to buy at the sale. Buyers might be more inclined to buy pedigrees that show soundness and run classic distances. Heck, they might actually put up money for a turf horse." BRAVO. THAT is where I would like to go. I think I did a bad job of bringing the "right" horses to slow-breeze at the sale this year. Next, I am going to try and pick the most UN-typical horse to show at the sale. The large, rangy, two-turn type, and see what happens. I love those types anyway.

As for the widening spread between the top and middle... it's gonna get worse. And eventually we will ALL be forced to make changes... breeders, consignors alike. I would have been happy breaking even on the horses I was selling, even that is a stretch. But if these 4 go on to great things (and I think they can), then next year might be better (but not much better I would guess). Regardless, its a tough, tough game for everyone.

Another thought. It's rarely the big-ticket horses that go on to do anything. The 5 million dollar yearling (or the 8 million one) the 3 million dollar juvenile (or the 16 million dollar one). It's the 40k one, the 63k one, the other ones that rise up and bite the big guys in the arse. Like a good freind told me, if it were about dollars, the Darley and Coolmore guys would win every race. They do not. We play in the void, and hope to get a big horse. Such is the game. SMART buyers can/should take advantage of this.

Best to all...

[Noor]

dray said "I don't need to go into all the supporting evidence of how the 2Yo sales is a buyers best shot at recouping his/her investment dollar. It's simply fact."

Sorry, can't agree with you on this point. For the reasons similar to those you cited later in your post (about the 2yo's being bred for speed), it simply is not a fair comparison to measure the "cream of the crop" yearlings (i.e. bred for speed, athletic, precocious, higher than average priced) against the yearling population as a whole.

I am certain the facts stand in contradiction to your belief. While the pinhooked horses may in fact be the most talented ones to enter the sales ring, the structural and mental damage done to them in the pursuit of the sub 10 second quarter mile often has greatly compromised, or eradicated, their ability to reach their potential.

[dray33]

This is a game of averages. I'm not comparing the cream of the crop yearlings to the rest as a whole (not sure how to do that). I was actually comparing the whole yearling market to the whole 2 YO market. In that regard, yearling versus two year old, the numbers speak for themselves. That's of little importance, except to say where your best odds are.

Cream of the crop yearlings usually don't go into the two year old sales, those better pedigreed, perfect horses are too expensive to take that route. Rarely do you see 500k+ horses in the 2YO sale. That's the exception, not the rule. And I wouldn't say "the pinhooked horses may in fact be the most talented ones to enter the sales ring". I doubt it. They are simply representative of what some people (pinhookers) think would make good early pinhookable horses... that's about all the credit i would give there. Pinhookers aren't magicians, the good ones pick out the horses that work within the program, thats it. Are some of the horses good? Sure. Some aren't. Kinda like the yearling market.

Does it hurt some horses in the process? YES. It needs to be addressed. But it's no different that what breeders are doing, and yearling consignors. It all needs to be better. Blaming one without the other? Not right. I am sure if you were a breeder, or a seller of yearlings, you would rather see the market focus on two year old sales. I am sure if you are a two year old consignor or pinhooker, you would rather discuss steroids, cosmetic surgeries and damage to yearling/weenlings. Thus, blaming ALL of it on 2 year old consignors, or yearling consignors, or breeders is wrong.

The idea that the pinhookers grab all the good horses is victimism. They buy what they like, as does any yearling buyer. Sad part is, right now, there isn't much buying at all regardless. It's like a recession.

Noor, you wrote:"the structural and mental damage done to them in the pursuit of the sub 10 second quarter mile often has greatly compromised, or eradicated, their ability to reach their potential." What horseman is buying these damaged horses? If they are not ready to sell, they simply dont. There isnt a pinhooker in the world that wants to stress a horse to the point where they cant sell it. Bad business AND horsemanship, no?

[Bid]

Again, it's a combination of things all driven by fast money. Until the demand dries up the cycle continues. People pay outrageous money for horses that are bred strictly for speed. The potential for breeders, agents buyers etc to make money fuels it all. Unless you're breeding for yourself, why would you risk breeding distance or turf or even soundness if it interferes with the pursuit of speed?
Dray, the more I think about it, the one way out of the cycle is for a superhorse to emerge. It will have to come from a person breeding to race. He'll have to have the pedigree we talked about earlier and be so dominant that it changes the mentality of the community. He'll have to not only win the Triple Crown, but dominate it. Then the owner will have to have the guts to run him as a 4 yr old and he'll have to be dominant still. Only then will people try to copy the formula and demand will change.
My fear is that it isn't possible with lasix and the other enhancers we use now. I think the ability to breathe used to separate the great horses of my youth from the rest of the pack. That is why we haven't had a Triple Crown winner or even what I'd consider a great horse for so long. But, that is fodder for another thread.
BTW-if you find one of those huge, gangly distance/grass breds you mentioned earlier, let me know what sale he'll be in so I can plan to attend. I've been breeding that way for some time and just haven't gotten the combo right -yet.

[dray33]

If only, Bid. If only. I wonder about lasix. I wonder about all the throat surgeries to racehorses too. Why can't they breathe right? I hope the one day make an American Triple Crown on the Turf, or something like that.

Leads me to ask you... What stallion would you consider to be classic distance type nowadays? AP Indy? El Prado? Who throws ONLY distance? Who throws stayers and has no commercial appeal? Thoughts?

[wilf]

I still don't get the 2yr old in training fascination when the big money is in 3yr olds and up going long.

[Noor]

I've started a new thred specifically about the Barretts Sale. A summary of the race records of Barretts' grads whose previews were the fastest. dray, I think it addresses head on some of your arguments. If nothing else, it points out how few lifetime starts most of these horses made.

[louis finochio]

When a Tb breeder breeds for speed only, the soundness is sacrificed.

When a Tb breeder breeds Tb that have a blend of speed & stamina, the soundness returns., but those individuals will not break the sound barrier in those sales previews.