What if we cut off drugs?

General on-topic discussion.

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Gallop58
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Postby Gallop58 » Thu May 15, 2008 12:39 pm

Per May 6th NY Times online blog:

"The big difference is when it comes to fatal accidents. In the United States, there are 1.5 fatal accidents for every 1,000 starts, according to an estimate from the University of Pennsylvania’s New Bolton Center. In Britain, the rate is 0.65 per 1,000 starts, according to the Animal Health Trust, and in Hong Kong, where horses face the heaviest schedule, the rate is 0.00035 percent, according to Hong Kong Jockey Club figures."

There is good discussion on this in the comments sections for your reading pleasure...

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Postby Nerd » Thu May 15, 2008 1:14 pm

Gallop58-- Now there's an interesting statistic. I have trouble believing it (seems a couple orders of magnitude off), but if it is true it sure ends the debate, doesn't it.

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Postby louis finochio » Thu May 15, 2008 1:36 pm

Our Santa Anita vet told me those Euro Tb can train on Lasix up to 3 days before they run, they can train on Bute 6 days before they run. What % of those Euro Tb are given these meds?
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Gallop58
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Euro and HK stats

Postby Gallop58 » Thu May 15, 2008 2:02 pm

Sorry, forgot to post the link...

http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/0 ... in-europe/

But to summarize:

NA = 1.5 per thousand starts
GB = .65 / 1000 starts
HK = .35 / 1000 starts

But as in all things, there's an asterix beside everything that needs to be considered.... (Like none of those places race on American dirt for starters)

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Postby Nerd » Thu May 15, 2008 2:40 pm

Aha, I get it... the 0.00035 is per start, not per 1000 starts... that's why it's orders of magnitude off... Still, it's a huge difference.

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Postby teb » Thu May 15, 2008 10:12 pm

Your vet told you Euro horses are allowed to run on bute 6 days before a race. Well aren't I glad for my vet here in Ireland who will tell you exactly how long something stays in the system for. Like Bute given orally will stay in the system for 20 days. Our horses in England have had to miss a race the odd time due to something unforseen needing bute and then having to wait until it clears the system. And you know what, I'm sure there are some cheats over here because they're everywhere. But the people I deal with are upfront and care about the integrity of the sport thus don't try and get away with anything.

Terri

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Postby louis finochio » Fri May 16, 2008 5:47 am

Teb: My vet told me that the med given to all Tb doesnt cause weak or low bone density. Your friend Mike Marlow told me to give you a high 5, Mark is currently training 16 Tbs, he had a Smart Strike but it was a 20,000 claimer. Breed a Champion. Louis.
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madelyn
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Postby madelyn » Fri May 16, 2008 7:23 am

Your vet is the one making all the money on the meds so maybe the info is suspect.

If the meds permit a horse to win with less training, they are indirectly responsible for weak bone or lack of density, which is ONLY built with training.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....

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Postby DDT » Fri May 16, 2008 7:27 am

louis

Nobody is saying that meds contribute to weak bones or low bone density directly, what may be happening is that horses racing on medication go to stud with racing records that would not be as good but for the medications. These stallions then go on to produce foals that have weak bones or a lower bone density. The medications may not be a direct cause but in effect the medications are the cause.

DDT

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Postby BenB » Fri May 16, 2008 8:15 am

Louis, the best program remains the German.

They specificate the minimal number of starts a horse has to make before
considering stud duties, the level at least gr 1 level placed or won.

Racing throughout their career absolutely clean one time medication during a race ends the possibilty from stud duties in Germany.
The use of lasix is forbidden

Besides that a crooked one, the front feet turning out or in are outlining the hoses from a stud opportunity.

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Postby Gallop58 » Fri May 16, 2008 9:36 am

Best practical idea I've heard to date: Just adopt the German system.

With all the data crunchers out there, one would think that we'd be able to tell if they are producing above their expectations due to these factors. You need to factor in the bloodstock they start with and other factors, but you'd think the data would show whether the approach moves up the class and durability of German horses over the long term.

Anyone know the German start and breakdown rates? (can't just take them at face value, but it would be interesting)

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Postby teb » Fri May 16, 2008 10:52 am

Also note Germany does buy stallions from Ireland from time to time so they can't be on drugs either, Black Sam Bellamy comes to mind.

Louis,
Do tell Mike I said hello and give him a big hug for me. You can also tell him my first ever homebred was a 2yo winner this year second time out. She won by 5 lengths! Also by a very unpopular stallion but yet thought he was a great cross with the mare! By the way she was second her first time up!

Terri

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Postby louis finochio » Fri May 16, 2008 3:08 pm

Congrats Terri on your good fortune, I said hello to Mike this morning, he said to give you his best, he has many pleasnat memories of you from the Lukas days.

If Mr. P. who was a very crooked individual, Danehill back of the knee, & Strom Cat very undesirable were not given a chance in the breeding shed because of their conformation faults, the breed would have lost many superior runners & Many GR 1 SW.

A breeder has to compensate the conformation faults of the stallion, by breeding away from those faults with mares that are not of those same faults.
Those without sin cast the first stone.

Louis Finochio

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Postby Dave C » Fri May 16, 2008 3:11 pm

I appreciate the German system and try to take advantage of German breeding when available. I also have no interest in seeing their system widely implemented. Danzig and Nureyev spring to mind as two sires that would have never been permitted to stand at stud if the German system had been in place in NA.

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Postby soundfast » Fri May 16, 2008 4:58 pm

The breed would not have lost any G1 winners if Storm Cat had not gone to stud. Those races that his offspring won would have been won by other horses who would hopefully have been sired by sound horses who produced sound horses. Storm Cat's offspring average only 11 lifetime starts. His son Giant's Causeway's offspring average only 8 and Forestry's 9. According to TB Times active sons index for 2008 Storm Cat's sons have 43% winners 4% stakes winners average earnings of $39,287. Sons of Mr. Prospector have 50% winners 5% stakes winners average earnings of $52,991. Sons of Danehill have 37% winners 3% stakes winners average earnings $30,136. Mr. Prospector led the broodmare sire list 8 or 9 times and his daughters have been responsible for producing a lot of the runners some people give Storm Cat credit for. Mr. Prospector has some sons that sire offspring with above average soundness and the breed would have been worse off without him but would have been better off without Storm Cat.