Zenyatta HOY

[diomed]

I've been skeptical that RA could get 1-1/4 and I'm skeptical whether it's the synthetics or that distance that kept RA out of the Breeder's Cup. Both Jackson and her trainer probably had an inkling early on that she would not last against better competition at that distance which they were going to get in the BC.

Matchemforever, you know I generally love your posts and we are usually on par most of the time, but PLEASE explain to me why you feel Rachel can't get 10f.
Up until Saturday Z hadn't tried it either. I KNEW she could get the distance because her pedigree Screamed it.
In all of my years following this sport, the pedigree is the indicator above all else in determining distance capabilities....DESPITE RUNNING STYLE.
Seattle Slew did it, Dr. Fager did it. Big Brown did it. Very few that had the ability AND the pedigree failed.
Some have outrun their pedigree(Smarty Jones) but very few do.
Rachel Alexandra's pedigree SCREAMS 10f.
I can't wait for the day.
Oh and Just make sure you eat your crow when she does.

[JimbleBrimble]

I can't see Zenyatta as HOTY for two reasons - her overall season vs. Rachel's and the field she ran against yesterday.

The season argument is obvious - Z ran 5 times, at 3 different tracks in 1 state, 4 G-1 wins and one win against males. Rachel ran 8 times, 7 tracks, six states, five G-1s and 3 against males.

As to the field, I just can't get over that the majority got beat by Gitano Hernando last month. Of the ones who didn't, there were two 3yos who had proven synthetic problems (Summer Bird & Regal Ransom), one who had a ton of question marks (Girolamo), two second-tier Europeans and Gio Ponti.

they both won some very impressive races. Rachel just won more of them, over a longer period of time. Rachel went out and did things that horses just don't do anymore and she did them more often than big Z. The bottom line is I won't trade one amazing day for a whole season of them.

Have you been drinking?

Only three runners in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic have ever raced against Gitano Hernando.

By all means, feel free to list any "impressive races" you think that Rachel Alexandra won this year.

Meanwhile, here's another list for you to ponder:


Symbology:

1-for-7 so far in 2009, won a $20,000 N2L claimer at Lone Star


Star of War:

1-for-5 so far in 2009, won a maiden race at Evangeline Downs


Missy Lou:

1-for-6 so far in 2009, won a maiden claimer in the slop at Churchill


Garden District:

0-for-6 so far in 2009, a second and a third


Each of those nags has beaten Rachel Alexandra.


Here's another list, of those who have beaten Zenyatta: (enjoy the read)












































.

[winds]

She doesn't look like she can get 10f because of how she won the Woodward. First, if she goes up against the boys again next year you know they won't let her go on an uncontested lead. She was barely able to win the Woodward, another couple of jumps and she would have been beaten. Zenyatta on the other hand had never reached her bottom and didn't in the Classic. That's the difference.

If she proves me wrong then great, but for now, after being in the business over 30 years, my experience says she can't get the distance. And no, if she does get the distance, I'll tell you now, I won't eat crow, I'll be jumping up and down with joy.

winds

[spinround]

By all means, feel free to list any "impressive races" you think that Rachel Alexandra won this year..

Gee, I don't know - winning the KY Oaks by 20 lengths, winning the Mother Goose by more, beating males in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward, that's something that happens all the time. Totally unimpressive.

Meanwhile, here's another list for you to ponder:


Symbology:

1-for-7 so far in 2009, won a $20,000 N2L claimer at Lone Star


Star of War:

1-for-5 so far in 2009, won a maiden race at Evangeline Downs


Missy Lou:

1-for-6 so far in 2009, won a maiden claimer in the slop at Churchill


Garden District:

0-for-6 so far in 2009, a second and a third


Each of those nags has beaten Rachel Alexandra.


Here's another list, of those who have beaten Zenyatta: (enjoy the read)
.

See this is my problem - we are talking about Horse of the Year 2009. The only way Zenyatta is in the conversation is by taking her cumulative record into account. Being undefeated on your career is a great achievement. But her career encompases more than 2009 and for HOTY discussions the only things that should matter are performances in 2009. None of the horses you mentioned beat Rachel Alexandra in 2009. It is totally irrelevant to the discussion.

The bottom line - Rachel won more races, G-1s, vs. males over more tracks in more states during 2009. That counts for something, IMHO a golden eclipse

[tmacew]

Jimble,

In junior high I once outscored a future NBA player in a game. Should that have been held against the NBA-er when he was drafted? Because that is the equivilent of the horses who beat Rachel when she was a 2YO. She hasn't been beaten this year and we are talking about this year.

And until Saturday who did Zenyatta beat all year? Cant have it both ways. If you are going to criticize the company Rachel kept, you have to do the same to Zenyatta. "Rachel" didnt hide from competition all year until the end. "Zenyatta" hid from competition all year, until the end. What is more impressive. Tough call.

The fact of the matter is that they both did absolutely everything that was asked of them.

I would give a nod to Zenyatta for HOY, but not by much, and if I am being honest, probably unfairly as I am probably letting the emotion of Saturday coupled with the fact that Rachel can still win one get to me. And really, how can you not win HOY when you cap off an undfeated career by winning the BC Classic (even if the Classic was run on more or a turf course than dirt course)? Probably the most accomplished 1-2 finish in Eclipse Award history, although I am sure some historians on here mght be able to give some more perspective on that.

[Matchemforever]

Diomed:

If pedigrees were everything then the Man O' War/Fair Play that is abundant further back in RA's pedigree would carry her any distance she ran. Sadly, the lines that those genes come down through seem to be mostly sprinters/milers. I said once that RA reminded me of a ghost from the past in the way she ran- took the lead and never looked back. But she's not in THAT league.

RA barely beat MTB in the Preakness who did not get the best trip. Another few jumps and Macho Again would have had her in the Woodward. No, I don't think she's got 1-1/4 in the tank unless the race goes all her way or she's running against vastly inferior horses.

They had several opportunities to run RA at 1-1/4 and they declined. They could have specifically campaigned her to run in a race that length and they did not.

I love RA, don't get me wrong there. She's a gutsy, game filly. But she does have to answer that question. Although after what Zenyatta just did, RA needs to do it against the best of the boys. I'll be happy if she does. I've yet to see RA really kick in another gear. Kind of reminds me of another horse, Precious Passion. High cruising speed and odds are, that's going to win you some races at the right distance. We're talking this point in time, however, and Zenyatta did answer the question and did it overcoming several disadvantages in the race.

As for who raced more this year? It's probably more a matter of the campaign you're looking at. Zen was pointed towards the Breeder's Cup. She needed the campaign she got and she's an older, BIG mare. RA was campaigned to beat the boys and, IMHO, avoid the classic distance. The BC was at that distance. If I were in the RA camp and wanted HOY, what they did was smart and spot on. I think both camps were brilliant in their strategies and there is NOTHING wrong with that.

[tmacew]

Did you really just compare Rachel to Precious Passion?

Seriously though, I think your point about both camps playing the "game" well is dead on. As they say in politics, now it is all up to getting out the vote!

[JimbleBrimble]

And until Saturday who did Zenyatta beat all year? Cant have it both ways. If you are going to criticize the company Rachel kept, you have to do the same to Zenyatta.

I guess we should start with the simple ones here:


Earth the tmacew, the Breeders' Cup is a 2-day affair these days.

Maybe you missed the biggest filly & mare race in North America.

They ran it on Friday.

Curiously the winner of that race had been toyed with 3 times previously this year by Zenyatta.

[JimbleBrimble]

By all means, feel free to list any "impressive races" you think that Rachel Alexandra won this year..

Gee, I don't know - winning the KY Oaks by 20 lengths, winning the Mother Goose by more, beating males in the Preakness, Haskell and Woodward, that's something that happens all the time. Totally unimpressive.

Haven't we gone over this before?

Rachel's opponents in that Kentucky Oaks have managed just 2 combined wins since then. The runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks had something near to a 77 Beyer Figure.

The Mother Goose was a 3-horse race, in which Rachel sat last with a torrid pace up front. (but your true perception is beginning to become clear to us, when you say that the winning margin in the Mother Goose was "more" than that of the Kentucky Oaks)

The males in the Preakness have combined for just a single main-track win since Preakness day. That was at Charles Town

The males in the Haskell, all put together, have not won on a fast track since the Haskell.

Nobody who raced in the Woodward has won any race of any kind since then.


Now please, go and rethink your sense of what constitutes "impressive"

[spinround]

Lol you're right. Because totally destroying outclassed opponents in fast times is just not impressive. My mistake - beating them by a head or a length in slow time is just so much better. But since we're talking about 'fast' track wins - how many horses did Zenyatta beat who came back to win on a fast dirt track?

[subrosa]

Watching RA's last race left me feeling sorry for her. Yes, she won but she was whipped hard all the way down the stretch. Compare that to Z's stretch romp - what joy!

[Dave C]

Lol you're right. Because totally destroying outclassed opponents in fast times is just not impressive. My mistake - beating them by a head or a length in slow time is just so much better. But since we're talking about 'fast' track wins - how many horses did Zenyatta beat who came back to win on a fast dirt track?

Life is Sweet, the winner of the BC Distaff.

Horses don't choose their competition, their humans do. Z stayed in Cal. and that is a negative for her chances. That the NA turf champion was the runner up in the classic and a euro was third will also be held against Z. But lets not forget Gio Ponti is as good of a racehorse as they come and Life is Sweet proved that those races of Z's earlier in the summer were a lot tougher than they looked.

I don't often agree with JimbleBrimble (he comes across as a grumpy old man) but in this case he is right. RA beat up on weak fields (not her fault) and didn't show up on the day when she could have proved that that didn't matter.

I imagine neither Z nor RA would like the taste of the trophies so they go to the owners. The whole point of stakes races is the owners putting up their money to prove that their horse is the best. RA's connections did not do that and therefore the trophy should not go to them.

[diomed]

Diomed:

If pedigrees were everything then the Man O' War/Fair Play that is abundant further back in RA's pedigree would carry her any distance she ran. Sadly, the lines that those genes come down through seem to be mostly sprinters/milers. I said once that RA reminded me of a ghost from the past in the way she ran- took the lead and never looked back. But she's not in THAT league.

RA barely beat MTB in the Preakness who did not get the best trip. Another few jumps and Macho Again would have had her in the Woodward. No, I don't think she's got 1-1/4 in the tank unless the race goes all her way or she's running against vastly inferior horses.

They had several opportunities to run RA at 1-1/4 and they declined. They could have specifically campaigned her to run in a race that length and they did not.

I love RA, don't get me wrong there. She's a gutsy, game filly. But she does have to answer that question. Although after what Zenyatta just did, RA needs to do it against the best of the boys. I'll be happy if she does. I've yet to see RA really kick in another gear. Kind of reminds me of another horse, Precious Passion. High cruising speed and odds are, that's going to win you some races at the right distance. We're talking this point in time, however, and Zenyatta did answer the question and did it overcoming several disadvantages in the race.

As for who raced more this year? It's probably more a matter of the campaign you're looking at. Zen was pointed towards the Breeder's Cup. She needed the campaign she got and she's an older, BIG mare. RA was campaigned to beat the boys and, IMHO, avoid the classic distance. The BC was at that distance. If I were in the RA camp and wanted HOY, what they did was smart and spot on. I think both camps were brilliant in their strategies and there is NOTHING wrong with that.

Thanks for your reply.
I think we see different things, both in the pedigree and visual dept. Rachel is not an unrateable speed demon. Her natural cruising speed is very relaxed, she is tractable. She will get even more mature and relaxed as she gets older, which is very scary in a good way. Bad for her competition though.
The horse is a freak, and her running style reminds me of Cigar but only faster.
She will get the 10f easily because I think she takes very much after her sire and is probably better than him.
The hickory comes from Momma.
You remember the old school tough as nails tbs with great bone density? She has that in spades.
Can't wait to see her run next year. We are all in for a treat.

[da hossman]

It is unfortunate that RA and Z had their equally fantastic years in the same year - imo both deserve HOY. I was in RA's camp prior to the BC and actually would have bet against Z had I bet. After witnessing her performance in the Classic I do not know how anyone can vote against Zenyatta - She is the Horse of the Year!

[spinround]

Lol you're right. Because totally destroying outclassed opponents in fast times is just not impressive. My mistake - beating them by a head or a length in slow time is just so much better. But since we're talking about 'fast' track wins - how many horses did Zenyatta beat who came back to win on a fast dirt track?

Life is Sweet, the winner of the BC Distaff.

Horses don't choose their competition, their humans do. Z stayed in Cal. and that is a negative for her chances. That the NA turf champion was the runner up in the classic and a euro was third will also be held against Z. But lets not forget Gio Ponti is as good of a racehorse as they come and Life is Sweet proved that those races of Z's earlier in the summer were a lot tougher than they looked.

I don't often agree with JimbleBrimble (he comes across as a grumpy old man) but in this case he is right. RA beat up on weak fields (not her fault) and didn't show up on the day when she could have proved that that didn't matter.

I imagine neither Z nor RA would like the taste of the trophies so they go to the owners. The whole point of stakes races is the owners putting up their money to prove that their horse is the best. RA's connections did not do that and therefore the trophy should not go to them.

Life is Sweet won on a synthetic track, not dirt. And while LIS won the Distaff, Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach (who finished ahead of LIS in the Lady's Secret) hardly flattered that form.

Rachel's owners put up their money to prove she was the best three times more than Zenyatta's owners, and she did prove their point. She proved it in one more G-1, two more victories against males, at four more tracks in five more states than Z did.