I had done this study many years ago from another CA. list and the results were basically the same.
I have stated on this forum what I have thought helps tremendously in producing a quality runner and that was the female family...more directly or influential was how well the 1st dam ran and her dam as well. I have stated that, more often than not, if the dam was a QUALITY runner (2.00 or more, is considered top 8.4 % of all runners QUALITY) or her mother was an above average runner or BOTH ...then more than likely you have a higher chance of producing a quality stakes horse. This is probably true since these are the more up close genes, unlike Nieces and Nephews, Aunts and Uncles etc. Focusing too far back in ones pedigree is focusing on a diluted gene pool...although I agree with mxing of the genes, inbreeding and sex balancing. The Dam and Sire deserve the most consideration.
The sire is important, but not as much as the female family. The sire you choose to go to, should be to improve the quality you already have, not to make up for what you DON'T have.
My study concluded this to be true. Out of 70...2006 CA. SW's looked up on my APR I found that 78% of the horses had this in common. I had added the 6 horses that had unraced dams and unraced grand dams, yet came from quality female famlies. Since there is NO WAY of knowing what actual talent that horse would have had if it had raced...judging from it's siblings there is a good way of determining whether it would be good or poor.
I found that 12% came from average families and 10% were exceptions to the rule. A lot of people would love to focus on the "exceptions" to the rules to justify owning or buying a poor quality mare. As a buyer I would want to focus on what has shown to work in producing a quality runner or runners. I want to stack the cards in my favor so to speak and this is one way of doing it. Whether I would race the offspring or sell...to me there is no diffence, when it comes to BREEDING. When it comes to selling there are many different things to look at, while at the same time NEVER forfieting the female families race record.
Below is my study......2.00 or more is what I would consider a benchmark although 1.75 is very good too, still being above average. In order to get a Standard Starts Index (ssi) a horse has to have 3 races or more...so a few that show unraced had less than 3 starts.
O.k., here goes...my mare, first commercial mare I've owned is called Verreaux.(by Silver Hawk o/o Glaze) How do you think she'll fare as a broodmare? What potential does she have for producing runners, based on this info? Any thoughts (any and all) welcomed!
The statistics above on Ca. Stakes Winners (not sires) alone prove there is something to what I say. I didn't pick any horses at random, I didn't choose horses from a state where they are quality bred.