Is the Breeders Cup a "Suckers Bet?"
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Is the Breeders Cup a "Suckers Bet?"
Well, it is that time of year again to nominate our '08 foals to the Breeders Cup. I have done this every year that I have had foals but, when one looks at the odds, I am beginning to think it is a "suckers bet" for breeders. We front the money to pull off the whole show in the hopes of the breeders' bonus should our horses ever win. That is an expensive bet when one considers the odds.
If the only payback was from the BC Championship races, I don't think too many people would nominate. The BC National Stakes program improves the odds of getting a breeders bonus somewhat. The real payoff for breeders though is at the sales. That's your best chance of getting money out of the program; someone paying a few extra thousand for the yearling because they think it might win at the National Stakes level or higher. For breed to race people it's an extremely iffy proposition. Frank didn't nominate Ginger Punch because she wasn't going to the sales, he lost that bet but on averages maybe he made the right choice.
In my opinion, I don't think you ARE rewarded at the sales. If you are selling a weanling, the buyer still has the option to BC nominate if they desire, also a yearling. The fee is a bit higher, but not much different that the "few thousand" higher they might have paid in the sales ring. Conversely, I've seen sellers FORCED to BC nominate by consignors, and after all the sales prep and commission go home with maybe $300. That $500 nomination fee was a waste of money and could have been in the breeder's pocket. The BC nomination is far too steep, in my opinion, for the odds of return. If it was $75 a foal, EVERYONE would nominate. Better off with a few more Powerball tickets...
My stallion is BC nominated and his foals are all eligible. There are late supplemental fees for horses who are contenders. There are also loads of other graded stakes out there. There are now "win and you're in" races, and other ways to qualify for BC races. I BC nominated my Street Cry filly because I was contractually required to in the foal share agreement. This year I donated seasons to my stallion to some of the regional programs' stallion season auctions. As a result, Rocking Trick's 2009 foal crop are all eligible for the breeders' series there. The fees are tiny, $40 or so for the foal owner since the stallion was eligible. My thought was this: the catalog entry for a 2009 foal will have:
KTDF
Nominated to the Alabama Stallion Stake Series
Nominated to the Minnesota Stallion Auction Stakes
Breeder's Cup Eligible
To me, that is more likely to help a foal's price that just the one thing:
Nominated to the Breeder's Cup
My stallion is BC nominated and his foals are all eligible. There are late supplemental fees for horses who are contenders. There are also loads of other graded stakes out there. There are now "win and you're in" races, and other ways to qualify for BC races. I BC nominated my Street Cry filly because I was contractually required to in the foal share agreement. This year I donated seasons to my stallion to some of the regional programs' stallion season auctions. As a result, Rocking Trick's 2009 foal crop are all eligible for the breeders' series there. The fees are tiny, $40 or so for the foal owner since the stallion was eligible. My thought was this: the catalog entry for a 2009 foal will have:
KTDF
Nominated to the Alabama Stallion Stake Series
Nominated to the Minnesota Stallion Auction Stakes
Breeder's Cup Eligible
To me, that is more likely to help a foal's price that just the one thing:
Nominated to the Breeder's Cup
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
madelyn wrote: If you are selling a weanling, the buyer still has the option to BC nominate if they desire, also a yearling. The fee is a bit higher, but not much different that the "few thousand" higher they might have paid in the sales ring.
Per the BC web site http://www.breederscup.com/content.aspx?id=26323 the nomination fee is $500 until October 15 of the year of birth, $1500 through December 15 of the year of birth, then $150000
I would call that more than a bit higher!
For what it is worth, I opted not to nominate the weanling I picked up in he FTTEX Dec 2007 sale. It would have cost me $1500 to BC nominate for a colt that I bought for much less after it did not receive a bid. Would the colt have sold in the auction if he had been BC nominated? In TX, there are a couple of races as year written with BC supplements to the purse. I recall one run on the closing weekend at Lone Star which offered a $25000 purse supplement, so one could earn $15000 from the BC for winning the race which equates to a 10x payback on the $1500 fee I was facing. Not a good play in my book.
On the other hand, I will not send my good mare to a stallion that was not BC nominated.
I think in the end the answer depends on your goals. If you are looking to sell to the national market the buyers probably expect you to nominate for the BC as an indication of your confidence in the quality of your product. Selling at a regional sale nominations to state bred programs and stallion series may be more important.
Chuck
Chuck
I bought a yearling this year, and I was disappointed to see that she wasn't Breeders Cup nominated. I mentioned my disappointment to the farm (who wasn't responsible; it was the breeder who decided not to nominate), because I consider it just a part of the cost of TB registration. The farm manager told me that they had to spend $190,000 or something like that to nominate another filly to run in the Breeders Cup, because they themselves had selectively decided not to nominate her as a weanling. They evaluated all their foals then and picked which ones would be nominated, trying to save a little money. Now they nominate everything. You never know where The Big Horse is going to come from. And you do get a chance to make some extra money and run in some of the Breedrs Cup local stakes.
I wish the BC people had thought about the law of diminishing returns and made the price a little lower in the beginning. If it had been $200, I think they'd have more than 2.5 times the nominations, and collected more money. I think they think so as well, because they've never raised the price from $500 since 1984. That's a long time for the price to stay the same unless you are worried that a price increase would result in less net revenue.
I wish the BC people had thought about the law of diminishing returns and made the price a little lower in the beginning. If it had been $200, I think they'd have more than 2.5 times the nominations, and collected more money. I think they think so as well, because they've never raised the price from $500 since 1984. That's a long time for the price to stay the same unless you are worried that a price increase would result in less net revenue.
"When I am on my deathbed, I imagine I will say, 'Thank God I did that'" - Arthur Hancock, on buying back Gato del Sol from Europe after Exceller was killed in a slaughterhouse in Sweden.
There are now "win and you're in" races, and other ways to qualify for BC races.
Doesn't the horse still have to be BC nominated to get into a Breeders Cup race? I thought the "win and you're in" just guaranteed a horse a slot in the race.
Do European horses still qualify as BC nominated if just the stallion is nominated?
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Patuxet
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No one answered subrosa's question: "Doesn't the horse still have to be BC nominated to get into a Breeders Cup race?"
In addition to World Champion BC races, the BC operation supplements the purses of some stakes races.
Am I correct in thinking that any horse can run in such a race without being BC nominated? If so how, if at all, would the lack of nomination affect the earnings of a horse which wins or places in such a race?
Thanks.
In addition to World Champion BC races, the BC operation supplements the purses of some stakes races.
Am I correct in thinking that any horse can run in such a race without being BC nominated? If so how, if at all, would the lack of nomination affect the earnings of a horse which wins or places in such a race?
Thanks.
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Laurierace
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Strategic Maneuver
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Sub, it's been awhile since I've dealt with BC races, but to answer your question, Europeans nominate to the EBF just like breeder's do here. Stallions must be nominated as do the weanlings/yrlgs. Breeder's Cup races other than the championship are usually added funds ie., 75K plus 75 BC added funds. Horses not nominated may run in these races but for the 75K only. Hope this answers your question.
Today is October 8 which means there is one more week to go until the BC nominations close. I have two fillies that are great physical specimens and I believe will make great race horses. Both are headed to the sales (one to F-T Midlantic in December) and the other to either Keeneland January or the yearling sales next year). I am feeling the pressure - to nominate or not?
Right now I am leaning to not nominating but I may change my mind at the last minute. I believe in the Breeders Cup principle but with the economic realities confronting us at the sales, I think it is a suckers bet in today's economy. Case in point: the recent F-T Yearling sale at Timonium (I know this sounds like sour grapes on my part but I just offer this as an example as I know many small breeders are in the same boat):
My yearling sells for $1,000.00 - Let's just look at the nominations:
Breeders' Cup = $500
Maryland Million = $250
Maryland-bred = $75
Maryland Yearling Show = $25
That leaves me $200. Now let's throw in the costs to care for his dam during pregnancy, foal him, raise him, vet him, nominate him to the sales, consign him, scope and xray him for the repository, etc. I would have taken a tremendous loss without nominating him to anything so I am not trying to say that the BC Nomination made me lose money.
It just is a consideration that, with today's market (which everyone says won't be getting better in the next couple of years) is it stupid to lay out this kind of money for horses at the "lower end" of the market as the trade journals so delicately phrase it? I think not.
It is a suckers bet!
Right now I am leaning to not nominating but I may change my mind at the last minute. I believe in the Breeders Cup principle but with the economic realities confronting us at the sales, I think it is a suckers bet in today's economy. Case in point: the recent F-T Yearling sale at Timonium (I know this sounds like sour grapes on my part but I just offer this as an example as I know many small breeders are in the same boat):
My yearling sells for $1,000.00 - Let's just look at the nominations:
Breeders' Cup = $500
Maryland Million = $250
Maryland-bred = $75
Maryland Yearling Show = $25
That leaves me $200. Now let's throw in the costs to care for his dam during pregnancy, foal him, raise him, vet him, nominate him to the sales, consign him, scope and xray him for the repository, etc. I would have taken a tremendous loss without nominating him to anything so I am not trying to say that the BC Nomination made me lose money.
It just is a consideration that, with today's market (which everyone says won't be getting better in the next couple of years) is it stupid to lay out this kind of money for horses at the "lower end" of the market as the trade journals so delicately phrase it? I think not.
It is a suckers bet!
The following definitively answers the question: YES!
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/a....-stakes-program
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/a....-stakes-program
