Breeders Cup

[Mike]

Is it too early to ask what everyone is tipping? What are the best 2yo chances?

[geowarrior]

Well, Mike, it might be a little too early but I can give you what I'm thinking so far.

Turf - Conduit
Sprint - Gayego
Filly and Mare Sprint - Informed Decision
Marathon - Mastery
Filly and Mare Turf - Forever Together
Juvenile Turf - Interactif
Filly Juvenile Turf - Tapitsfly
Filly Juvenile - Negligee
Colt Juvenile - Noble's Promise
Ladies Classic - Careless Jewel
Mile - Goldikova

Others - undecided

Long Shots: Classic - Summer Bird, Mine That Bird; Turf - Presious Passion; Sprint - California Flag

Pretty chalky selections so far, and done without seeing PP's yet, so I'm reserving the right to make changes.

[Mike]

What do you think your best chance pick is? We don't see too much of the Breeders Cup down here.

I have a half sister to the dam of Noble's Promise. He did a very fast gallop yesterday. He looks a show.

[geowarrior]

Well, Mike, I'm not sure that my picks are that great. It hasn't been a good handicapping year for me, with the exception of the Belmont where I had Summer Bird to win and place and also had the exacta. Out of the list I gave you, Conduit, Mastery, Goldikova, Interacif are likely favorites. Careless Jewel will be close to favorite if Zenyatta doesn't go in the Ladies Classic (and all indications right now are that she is going for the big one). Music Note must be considered a threat in the Ladies Classic so I imagine that Careless Jewel will be a weak favorite.

I am going against likely strong favorites in the Filly and Mare Sprint (Ventura looks to be in fine form), Juvenile (Lookin At Lucky is Lookin good), and Sprint (Zensational gets all the buzzzzz).

I'd have to say that my best chance to win is Goldikova. Her win in the mile last year was spectacular and although the mile is a competitive race this year, there simply aren't the superlatives to describe Goldikova when she is at her best. The only doubt about her is that she lost her last time out but I saw a replay of that one, and she didn't lose by much. The fact that her trainer Fredie Head chose to send her over despite the loss is good enough for me, and I'm not worried about whether she's ready. You won't get much of a price on Goldikova though.

The horse I LIKE best is Gayego. I followed him last year all through the Triple Crown trail when California was blessed with many talented three year olds including Colonel John, Georgie Boy, Bob Black Jack, El Gato Malo. Many of those three year olds, including Gayego, were actually more talented at sprint distances, and as a four year old Gayego is bigger and stronger than he was last year. His win in the Ancient Title was visually impressive, and in a Sprint race which is pretty competitive I think his greater strength and experience may just win out over the raw talent of the three year old Zensational.

A half sister to the dam of Noble's Promise, eh, and galloping well? Sounds very promising for you and I wish you the best of luck with her. I thought the win by Noble's Promise last time out was accomplished with ease and I was very impressed. However I am going out on a limb trying to beat the likely favorite Lookin at Lucky as well as the talented D'Funnybone. I saw Lookin at Lucky on the TVG show 'The Works' and he looked as though he was travelling easily without any urging yet worked a very fast time. He'll be hard to beat but the Juvenile races are always up in the air and so I'm ready to take a chance on the better value that Noble's Promise will offer.

[Mike]

I'm looking forward to seeing the Breeders Cup this year Geowarrior. I'm hoping that it'll be on ESPN, but last year we only got a delayed coverage. I'm hoping that we'll be able to bet on it this year also.

[FOS]

hi Mike

Long time no see .

I'm looking forward to seeing the Breeders Cup this year Geowarrior. I'm hoping that it'll be on ESPN, but last year we only got a delayed coverage. I'm hoping that we'll be able to bet on it this year also.

Hopefully LIVE Breeders' Cup coverage will be available to ya this year. What are your thoughts on Zenyatta versus the boys in the Classic?

How's the world of breeding/racing treating you? Didn't you have two Giant's Causeways?

Best.

Respectfully

[Mike]

hi Mike

Long time no see .

I'm looking forward to seeing the Breeders Cup this year Geowarrior. I'm hoping that it'll be on ESPN, but last year we only got a delayed coverage. I'm hoping that we'll be able to bet on it this year also.

Hopefully LIVE Breeders' Cup coverage will be available to ya this year. What are your thoughts on Zenyatta versus the boys in the Classic?

How's the world of breeding/racing treating you? Didn't you have two Giant's Causeways?

Best.

Respectfully

Hi Fos

You remember only too well. Giant's Causeway didn't make it in Australia and nor did the 2 that I had. That's racing!

Regarding Zenyatta, Street Cry is certainly doing it everywhere one looks! I missed the boat on him. Zenyatta can do it Fos. What do you think?

With regard to breeding, I have gone big on Holy Roman Emperor both seasons that he has stood. 3 last year and 6 this year! What do you think of him?

[wallinga]

I'm looking forward to seeing the Breeders Cup this year Geowarrior. I'm hoping that it'll be on ESPN, but last year we only got a delayed coverage. I'm hoping that we'll be able to bet on it this year also.

sky racing has it live on Sunday morning but we can only bet on the races after 7 am our time.

[horse]

Does anyone know why the Spinaway winner, Hot Dixie Chick, didn't make it to the Juvenile fillies race? Assuming the undisclosed cause is a minor injury, does anyone know if and when she will return to training? She was top drawer in the Asmussen barn back in September. It is disappointing not to see her compete.

[Lucy]

Does anyone know why the Spinaway winner, Hot Dixie Chick, didn't make it to the Juvenile fillies race? Assuming the undisclosed cause is a minor injury, does anyone know if and when she will return to training? She was top drawer in the Asmussen barn back in September. It is disappointing not to see her compete.

She was not even pre-entered, but I have not heard anything about her being injured.

It seems likely that she's sitting out for the same reason as Rachel Alexandra.....HDC is owned by Jess Jackson's wife.

[Mike]

I'm looking forward to seeing the Breeders Cup this year Geowarrior. I'm hoping that it'll be on ESPN, but last year we only got a delayed coverage. I'm hoping that we'll be able to bet on it this year also.

sky racing has it live on Sunday morning but we can only bet on the races after 7 am our time.

I saw that wallinga. Hopefully we get another feed. Sky are not the best at presnetation when it comes to breeding etc. Better than nothing though!

[geowarrior]

Does anyone know why the Spinaway winner, Hot Dixie Chick, didn't make it to the Juvenile fillies race? Assuming the undisclosed cause is a minor injury, does anyone know if and when she will return to training? She was top drawer in the Asmussen barn back in September. It is disappointing not to see her compete.

She was not even pre-entered, but I have not heard anything about her being injured.

It seems likely that she's sitting out for the same reason as Rachel Alexandra.....HDC is owned by Jess Jackson's wife.

The word I saw (I've forgotten where) is that there's nothing wrong with Hot Dixie Chick, she's just another casualty of the Jacksonian dislike of synthetic surfaces.

As for Zenyatta, I want her to win, and I think with the right trip she can win - looking at Beyer figures, only Summer Bird and Quality Road are showing higher figures in their last 10 starts. Summer Bird could bounce off the terrific showing in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Quality Road seems to be consistently behind Summer Bird. And neither of these two have a synthetic record. The problem with Zenyatta is that to get rolling, and stay rolling so she can eat up the ground with those long strides, she's going to have to successfully avoid a large field with several very talented closers. I envisage Rip Van Winkle towards the head of the pack early and a wall of horses late. If Zenyatta can get through the wall unscathed then she can do it, and it would be the best thing for American racing since I don't know what (handicapped by the fact that I wasn't brought up in America). I know if Zenyatta wins I'll cry, so it's just as well I'll be watching on my own.

Mike, if you think you've missed the boat on Street Cry, why is that? Is he not standing in the Southern Hemisphere any more, or is it a question of price? How about the son of Street Cry, Street Sense? I have a hard enough time keeping the American stallions straight never mind remembering which ones are shuttling, and which are standing on Southern Hemisphere time. Giant's Causeway gets a lot of stakes winners, but his average earnings per runner is quite low. I think the number of winners, stakes winners and earnings has to do more with the extraordinarily large numbers of progeny that Giant's Causeway has.

Given that I have no idea which stallions are shuttling, I will say that I think the group of American stallions that are 'second crop' now, i.e. their oldest progeny are current three year olds, is the richest group that there has been in many a year. In this group we have Medaglia D'Oro, Tapit, and Birdstone. We probably don't even need to elaborate on what those three have done so far, but there are other stallions in this group that I like a lot also. Candy Ride for one. He has several in Breeders Cup races - Chocolate Candy, Captain Candyman Can and Evita Argentina. His offspring are shaping up to be talented and durable runners, more towards the sprinty/miley side. I also like Pleasantly Perfect from this group - I expected him to show nothing in the early crop sire lists as he himself was a bit of a late bloomer, but in fact he's quite far up the list in a very talented group of sires, and I expect improvement down the road for him. So if I were in Australia and looking for an up and coming sire I guess I'd look in that group to see what's available for Southern Hemisphere breeding.

Anyway, good luck Mike with your horses, and enjoy the Breeders Cup. I'll look forward to your comments after it's all over.

[Mike]

Hi Geowarrior

When commenting on Street Cry, I was referring to his service fee mainly. He does stand here at $110k. When considering the prices in the ring, he is not good value.

I agree with your comments on Giants Causeway. We must discuss some stallion prospects after the Breeders Cup is over. I look forward to it.

All the best

[geowarrior]

Hi Geowarrior

When commenting on Street Cry, I was referring to his service fee mainly. He does stand here at $110k. When considering the prices in the ring, he is not good value.

I agree with your comments on Giants Causeway. We must discuss some stallion prospects after the Breeders Cup is over. I look forward to it.

All the best

I look forward to it also. Thank you for the clarification re. Street Cry. If you are looking for more Breeders Cup tips (and likely better ones than mine), check out the racing forum as bdw has started a thread for each BC race and has an insightful analysis of each.

[FOS]

hi Mike

... Regarding Zenyatta, Street Cry is certainly doing it everywhere one looks! I missed the boat on him. Zenyatta can do it Fos. What do you think? ...

Without a doubt...Zenyatta can do it. I'm absolutely, positively pulling for her, but I don't expect the BC Classic will be an easy task.

For starters, it's a 13 horse field (as of now), and that in and of itself poses a potential obstacle extraordinaire; especially for come from off the pace runners...including undefeated and often come from waaaaaaaaay off the pace super-star Zenyatta.

How many times do we see horses that come from way out of it, have to deal with traffic issues and/or find themselves taken wide and/or circling the field to get a clear shot to the wire. Going wide is certainly not the shortest route to the wire, and the extra distance that many come from behind runners have to negotiate (if/when going wide) may be the difference between winning and not.

That's all part of horseracing...and when a full field of Top Class runners lines up to compete in a $5 million race...it makes for incredible possibilities.

There are some very serious racehorses in the BC Classic, and I expect to see a fantastic race unfold...with the possibility of a finish for the ages.

Yeah...I'm pulling for Zenyatta. If she's on her game, she'll be EXTREMELY tough.

Best.

Respectfully