I Am Going To Make A Prediction

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photofinish
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I Am Going To Make A Prediction

Postby photofinish » Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:39 pm

All the talk of "Stop Breeding!" Why Is Anyone Breeding?" "Market Is Dead Forever!" has got me thinking (yeah, I do that on occassion).

Has anyone here been in the game long enough to remember the MRLS outbreak in 2001? 1/3 of the foal crop in KY was lost for '02 and a high % of the late '01 babies died. Remember how hard it was to fill races for 2 and 3 yr olds from '03 to '05? Racing stock was at a premium, even cheaper horses, because there were not enough and when the races did go they went with 6 or 7 horses. This effect even stuttered over into '06 and '07 a wee bit with older horses, just not as noticable. And that was 1/3 of the crop in just one state.

I predict a similar situation in the next few years as backlash from the lowered breeding numbers these last few years due to the economy. When racing stock gets short it bolsters the yearling market as people panic over "next year's racing stock". The one's who could afford to stick it out may not make a killing, but they will be ok. The race to breed guys will get abreak and be happy. I blame the "commercial breeders" for 90% of the industry's/breed's ills, but that is a whole nother topic. :twisted:

As far as the rescue folks screaming about no one breeding, there never has been much market for slow or crippled horses and there never will be. The jumper/trail/show horse market really has nothing to do with the racing market. I don't care if you are discussing horses or dogs or fish - culls are culls are culls and will never achieve a monetary value, best you can hope for is for someone to attach an emotional value to the animal. No one in racing breeds "so their kid can see a foal born", that lecture needs to be on other boards. Most racing folk breed the best they have to the best they can and try to create an animal to do a job. The animal cannot always do that job, but that is what breeders strive for and they will not stop striving for that because there have always been, still are, and always will be culls.

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winds
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Postby winds » Wed Jun 15, 2011 8:43 pm

I agree with you photofinish. A cull is a cull and the market will turnaround eventually.

winds

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Postby oleos93 » Wed Jun 15, 2011 11:27 pm

Fully agree and yes I remember the Kentucky situation well. My feeling is, all those that can, should bred to race and not remarket.

I also feel the Jockey Club should lower their registration fee as I have seen many nice youngsters not registered because folks end up not being able to afford to register them even after a year. They hit some hard times but keep the babies with high hopes but then $200 quickly turns into $500. So the JC needs to lower the fee and/or expand the fee deadline.

I believe firmly if to many give up there will be no competition at all.[/b]

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Postby Tappiano » Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:26 am

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Last edited by Tappiano on Sun Jun 19, 2011 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Sysonby
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Re: I Am Going To Make A Prediction

Postby Sysonby » Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:40 am

photofinish wrote:As far as the rescue folks screaming about no one breeding, there never has been much market for slow or crippled horses and there never will be. The jumper/trail/show horse market really has nothing to do with the racing market. I don't care if you are discussing horses or dogs or fish - culls are culls are culls and will never achieve a monetary value, best you can hope for is for someone to attach an emotional value to the animal. No one in racing breeds "so their kid can see a foal born", that lecture needs to be on other boards. Most racing folk breed the best they have to the best they can and try to create an animal to do a job. The animal cannot always do that job, but that is what breeders strive for and they will not stop striving for that because there have always been, still are, and always will be culls.


Good point. I think it comes from looking at horses as big dogs and cats which makes sense if you have pet oriented viewpoint. But most serious breeders are not pet oriented. They need that horse they are creating to do a job. So it is irrelevant that there are horses at New Holland today who need homes. Those horses can't do --or can't do well--the job that a breeder needs a horse to do. It's not like raiding the pound for a fun bit of fur to have around the house. It's more like expecting your next working trial dog to come from someone's castoffs. Unlikely at best and why wouldn't you want to start with a purpose bred dog instead of messing around with the unknown.

It's a shame that there are not enough homes out there for every horse and I agree some people should be more responsible. But that doesn't mean you shut whole industries down or that you can draw a straight line from anyone's breeding programs to other unwanted horses. A smaller foal crop isn't necessarily going to make that horse any more wanted. Good training OTOH might and trainers will tell you that an unpapered steady eddie with all the right buttons and reasonable health and soundness is worth their weight in gold.

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Kari
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Re: I Am Going To Make A Prediction

Postby Kari » Thu Jun 16, 2011 5:56 am

Sysonby wrote: I think it comes from looking at horses as big dogs and cats which makes sense if you have pet oriented viewpoint. But most serious breeders are not pet oriented. They need that horse they are creating to do a job. So it is irrelevant that there are horses at New Holland today who need homes. Those horses can't do --or can't do well--the job that a breeder needs a horse to do. It's not like raiding the pound for a fun bit of fur to have around the house. It's more like expecting your next working trial dog to come from someone's castoffs. Unlikely at best and why wouldn't you want to start with a purpose bred dog instead of messing around with the unknown.



AMEN!!

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Postby Crystal » Thu Jun 16, 2011 8:20 am

again, humane euthanisia if you care what happens to the horse you are responsible for.

Sometimes there are not breeders left who can take back the animals they bred. Either they have passed on or are not in financial ability to take back the horse.

I don't agree slaughter is our only option, however auction houses are a way to get a lump bunch of buyers to look at your horse. They won't go for much but once in a while a reputable rescue will gather resources to "bail one out" and they have a following who always seem to help in some way get horses out of the KP.

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Postby oleos93 » Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:09 am

I agree and think auctions geared for the say the racing industry gather people that do not want to bred their own, and have the funds to buy an already baked version of their future dream. I think it has it's ups and downs. It also helps that small time breeder and if they feel anything like I do, just knowing your baby is going to a "working home" and that your name as a breeder is attached is good enough and low dollar you get at the auction is not that big a deal. The breeder sees glory in that too, at least I do and I only have one that I sold to a racing home and they did what they said they would do, and that filly is running and had her first win a few months ago and it was great to know that was produced by me.

So many great ideas from reduced fees to combined fees but how does they little men and woman in the industry make it all happen? They can't really and it sucks because the ones that feel hopeless stop breeding and pass their breeding stock onto breeders that probably don't give a rats ass.

There should be stricter laws and what horse should be bred to what horse, especially in QH's for the reason listed above....but the AQHA, JC, APHA, ApHa etc are JUST registries making ALOT of money, same with the AKC, CKC, etc for dogs. They cannot and do not govern a dang thing and breeding mom to son is not their problem.

Last year AQHA and APHA had a "deal" going on that it was $150 to register ANY horse regardless of age. I think they are starting to see that there are still people breeding but no one can afford the fees. So they did this to get the fees yes, but to also get those horses registered because that too makes them money too say with show that you have to have a registered horse.

It has been proven it does not take the "big guy" or the deep pockets to win or the great pedigree. I for one am not all hopped up on the new lines, I LOVE LOVE the older lines and try to stay with them. The old time lines seem to be fading and are being pushed further and further back into the generation. I think breeders need to stick with what they know and feel and not try and keep up with the industry so much.

It is a sad thing but you can ask most people why they do something and they do not really know the answer......they just do it because everyone elce is. I do not follow the industry and I believe what I know and it may get some laughs but I also know I am not the only one that feels this way.

As far as rescues etc....they have their purpose, but the tree huggers have no idea what they have created by making a stink of closing down slaughter houses. I have taken on my fair share of rescues but we can not save them all.

There is a place in Spokane, WA called Cat Tails. It is a big cat zoo so to speak. They will take unwanted horses and humanliy put them down and feed it to the big cats.....instead of the cats killing them they are, but the purpose is still there, one life for another and I think it is a great idea.

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Postby casallc » Thu Jun 16, 2011 3:43 pm

Every breed registry, including the Jockey Club, makes their money from the registration of foals. It is silly to say that one is guiltier of over breeding than another. A thoroughbred has one main purpose, as a racehorse, if they don't make it there they can be retrained for other purposes but really aren't going to make the greatest cutting horse, roping horse, or any other all around using horse. There are always exceptions but as a rule what I have said is true. The AQHA is the largest breed registry in the world and instead of a single purpose there are many uses for the offspring every year. When you consider that a thoroughbred has only one purpose and the quarter horse has so many more the AQHA probably has no more throw away horses than thoroughbreds.

It is also silly and downright un-American to say who can breed what. Who’s is going to be the arbiter of what is worthy to breed and what is not? The biggest problem in breeding is the back yard breeder who breeds old Dobin to Flicka, never mind that Dobin is so crooked and sickle-hocked that he can hardly mount a mare without falling over backward. Never mind that Flicka has a head more like a giant moose than a quarter horse, their foal will make us rich. They have the same right that Dinny Phipps has to breed what they choose. The only difference is someone will pay something for the knot head with the Phipps name attached but eventually could both wind up on the same truck to Mexico.

I used to make my living with stud horses, standing horses for the public as a farm manager at several leading farms and on my own. I have bred thousands of mares and don’t remember all the studs I have stood but it would be around 100. Not one of them would have been a stallion had I owned him, as a yearling. Some of them were champions and many are common in most pedigrees still today. I have never found that perfect horse that had all the qualifications to become a breeding stallion. Back in the 70’s and early 80’s, when banks would actually loan money on horses and before the oil, real estate and savings and loan bust, I would be called on to appraise horses for banks and attorneys for estates, etc. My opening statement to every client on the value of a horse was determined by what it would weigh then start looking for reasons that someone would be willing to pay more. Just because a horse’s sire was a race horse or a halter horse or any other kind of horse is no indication his offspring will be. Back then my guiding philosophy was the most profound truth in the horse business: There is nothing cheaper than an ugly racehorse that can’t run. Today that is no longer true – horses have no base value, unless they can do something worthwhile they aren’t cheap – they are a liability.

Horse slaughter provided a useful service to all horsemen and I contend, horses. The folly of the activists is just now being realized but will get even worse as time goes on. The problem in not too many horses it is too many worthless horses being co mingled.

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Postby Crystal » Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:06 pm

BRAVO!

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Postby photofinish » Thu Jun 16, 2011 7:56 pm

I firmly agree that the closing of the US slaughter plants was a stupid, shortsighted, harmful move that started with a few shortsighted people (one of whom I knew personally :roll: ) who recruited a huge number of apartment dwelling PETA wannabes who wanted to feel all warm and fuzzy about themselves. Reminded me of a shirt a friend has that says "Never Underestimate The POWER of Stupid People In Large Numbers". Folks who have never touched a horse, a few who rode one (once), and a small handful who have Quiote-ic views combined to create a disaster for the horse industry. But hey, they feel SOOOO good about themselves now, what are a 60,000 horses' misery compared to that? All they did was insure that more horses would have to endure further travel in cramped quarters to less regulated kill plants. They also insured that more horses would be let loose to fend for themselves or left to starve a long, slow death after they removed the little (pound) value the animal had left.

These folks are the same ones screaming at breeders and blaming the breeders for the extra horses. The guy breeding a TB to race, or a QH for the cutting pen, or an Ay-rab for Scottsdale fine harness is NOT going to find the animal he desires in the New Holland kill pen. So why do we keep letting them compare apples to oranges without being called out? I am tired of it.

It has been statistically proven that TBs comprise about 4% of the kill pen population. 4%. Standardbreds are much higher, as are QH/stock breeds with draft breeds and ponies/donkeys rounding out the stats. Fact is there never has been (last 90yrs anyhow) a lot of aftermarket for harness horses. Driving just isn't a big deal outside of Amish country. As for the stock horses, they are more likely to be overbred because Joe Down the Road who bought 5 acres may actually be able to handle a stock type horse and then decide he is an expert after Dubbins hasn't killed him in the first 2 years and go into breeding. Ol' Joe gets pretty intimidated by the whole TB thing (they move around alot more, doncha know?) so makes more QHs.... While a TB may not make the ideal ranch horse (good for riding the big circles, maybe) he has an option in the H/J/event world which few QHs excel at outside of AQHA shows, so the aftermarket, while limited, is the same for either type.

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Postby dkras » Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:51 pm

All they did was insure that more horses would have to endure further travel in cramped quarters to less regulated kill plants. They also insured that more horses would be let loose to fend for themselves or left to starve a long, slow death after they removed the little (pound) value the animal had left.

I agree with the above quote. Very short-sighted and it backfired. I think humane euthanasia or gunshot for horses going for meat would be a whole lot better/humane than the slaughter methods taking place now.
It does seem, however, that more than 4% of the horses (@ Camelot at least) are TB's. There have been a lot of yearlings there lately as well. It is very expensive to breed, raise and train horses. However, I do feel that breeders have some responsibility to their animals down the line. I understand that once a horse is sold, it may have many owners and end up in a bad place. But I feel that the whole industry should work together more to have some options to help place some of these horses, especially if serviceably sound.

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Postby photofinish » Thu Jun 16, 2011 10:17 pm

I have actually been watching the Camelot rescue board thing lately and TBs are still about 4%. More donkeys, drafts, arabs and camp horses that TBs on their sight.

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Postby Sysonby » Fri Jun 17, 2011 5:34 am

dkras wrote: However, I do feel that breeders have some responsibility to their animals down the line.


That is also a pet oriented view. The breeders may have sold that horse as a weanling or a yearling and you might be asking him to take back or support a ten or 15 year old animal that he had virtually nothing to do with for a decade. Some might want to do it but really what is magical about being the first owner as opposed to the third or the fifth?

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Postby madelyn » Fri Jun 17, 2011 11:01 am

casallc wrote:...... A thoroughbred has one main purpose, as a racehorse, if they don't make it there they can be retrained for other purposes but really aren't going to make the greatest cutting horse, roping horse, or any other all around using horse. There are always exceptions but as a rule what I have said is true. The AQHA is the largest breed registry in the world and instead of a single purpose there are many uses for the offspring every year. When you consider that a thoroughbred has only one purpose and the quarter horse has so many more the AQHA probably has no more throw away horses than thoroughbreds........


I completely disagree with this statement. I have never seen a Quarter Horse who was able to compete with a Thoroughbred at the highest level in Dressage, Jumping, Eventing, etc. In fact, most of the Quarter Horses I have had the misfortune to try to have to "convert" into something else have been dumb as a rock and just unable to do anything outside their "pedigree" - ie: ranch-bred, cow-bred, etc. The Quarter Horse started out being specifically bred to run 1/4 mile. Talk about useless. No good for a hunter, jumper, dressage, steeplechase, field horse, pace event horse, etc. etc. When I researched the statistics back in the days of slaughterhouses operating in the US, something like 70% of all of the horses processed were Quarter Horses. The Quarter Horse has really broken up into such diverse types that it is really five or six breeds - the totally useless obese halter horses who can often not even walk on their spindly legs and teacup hooves, the ranch horse, the reining horse who can just learn the one little pattern (give that horse a level D dressage test and it would be so confused...), the completely un-Quarter Horse like huntseat horse (who has so much TB that it is ridiculous to even call it a Quarter Horse), and the cutting horse - well I am sure there are more. What do you actually DO with a halter horse that can't win a halter class? They are usually so crippled they can't even be ridden. I guess the point is that the "versatility" of the Quarter Horse doesn't really exist - it's the diversity of breeds within the QH that gives the impression of versatility. For a really good experiment, you should, just once, go through five or six months of frustration trying to teach a cow-bred QH to lift its legs over an 18" high cross-rail (instead of just ploughing through it) to give its kid owner the thrill of going "all around" in a 4-H show.

The Thoroughbred is far more versatile - show me a single Quarter Horse who has ever competed at a major three day event and finished in the top ten - it takes a really special horse to be able to transition through the roads and tracks, steeplechase, dressage, cross country and stadium jumping that makes up your typical three-star event. Something your dumb-as-a-post Quarter Horse couldn't even dream of.. as for "all around using" I guess it depends on what you mean. There are a lot of barrel racing folks around me who look for the sprinter built TB's to compete because they are faster, stronger, and smarter than QH's..... and they can barrel race on Sunday, jump on Monday, trail ride on Tuesday, do dressage on Wednesday, etc. etc....

To prove a point, it finally came down to pestering the IOC into finally allowing reining into the Olympics to get a Quarter Horse there.

And don't even get me started on the INSANITY of allowing HYPP horses to be registered and bred on...
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