Has anyone here been in the game long enough to remember the MRLS outbreak in 2001? 1/3 of the foal crop in KY was lost for '02 and a high % of the late '01 babies died. Remember how hard it was to fill races for 2 and 3 yr olds from '03 to '05? Racing stock was at a premium, even cheaper horses, because there were not enough and when the races did go they went with 6 or 7 horses. This effect even stuttered over into '06 and '07 a wee bit with older horses, just not as noticable. And that was 1/3 of the crop in just one state.
I predict a similar situation in the next few years as backlash from the lowered breeding numbers these last few years due to the economy. When racing stock gets short it bolsters the yearling market as people panic over "next year's racing stock". The one's who could afford to stick it out may not make a killing, but they will be ok. The race to breed guys will get abreak and be happy. I blame the "commercial breeders" for 90% of the industry's/breed's ills, but that is a whole nother topic.
As far as the rescue folks screaming about no one breeding, there never has been much market for slow or crippled horses and there never will be. The jumper/trail/show horse market really has nothing to do with the racing market. I don't care if you are discussing horses or dogs or fish - culls are culls are culls and will never achieve a monetary value, best you can hope for is for someone to attach an emotional value to the animal. No one in racing breeds "so their kid can see a foal born", that lecture needs to be on other boards. Most racing folk breed the best they have to the best they can and try to create an animal to do a job. The animal cannot always do that job, but that is what breeders strive for and they will not stop striving for that because there have always been, still are, and always will be culls.