election and the sales

[Joltman]

So the prez is re-elected. My first prediction is that median sales numbers drop at Kee Nov as business people with $ head even further to the edge of the sidelines and keep their financial powder dry.

Second is that the Greater Recession of 2014 will be successfully be blamed on a Republican Congress and/or George Bush

jm

[kimberley mine]

Can we move this to the off-topic section please? I would really enjoy even one week without hearing about the elections.

[Joltman]

Sorry, but it is very pertinent to those who have horses to sell or wish to buy. I believe that many business owners who are driving the buy side at Kee and down the road may well reign their purchasing in. That includes me.

It may be a buying opportunity actually for those who have deep enough pockets (lower prices), but if the economy continues adrift or heads south again for those business owners, despite fed money pump priming, for some buyers 'all bets off'. If interest rates go up, the profit margins on purchases shrink and profits can turn to losses even for the astute breeders.

For the sheiks, it doesn't matter.

jm

[griff]

and no one is forced to read any of this. If you need/desire a vacation by all means take one. I'll probably join you.

And remember Joltman, we still have Big John in charge of the House and he has promised not to allow one single tax loophole be closed as that would be a tax increase on someone..

Maybe that someone will buy a horse with the loophole money he will still retain

griff

[stlouiskid]

Why would the president being re-elected cause horse prices to decline?Before he took office, the market was in a free fall, and has recovered nicely in the four years he has been President. The S and P has more than doubled in four years. Corporate profits are at record levels. Horse buyers own these companies. I don't see the connection.
I personally don't think any politician has much to do with it. The US economy has a recession on average every 6 or 7 years. Probably due for another slow down in the economy just based on that.

[Linda_d]

Why would the president being re-elected cause horse prices to decline?Before he took office, the market was in a free fall, and has recovered nicely in the four years he has been President. The S and P has more than doubled in four years. Corporate profits are at record levels. Horse buyers own these companies. I don't see the connection.
I personally don't think any politician has much to do with it. The US economy has a recession on average every 6 or 7 years. Probably due for another slow down in the economy just based on that.

I agree.

Furthermore, NOT all of the country was affected the same way, either. The hardest hit geographic areas were primarily those areas that had "booms" based on exploding real estate values like Myrtle Beach, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and parts of Florida. Many "unfashionable" areas of the country -- upstate NY, Texas, much of the Midwest -- have NOT had nearly the problems with foreclosures or homes losing values.

The housing and horse markets were both affected by the lack of credit in 2008 as the credit markets froze up. That happened prior to the election, beginning in the summer. The credit situation is far different today. Yeah, there are stiffer borrowing standards in place today, but in 2007/2008 financial institutions were giving out mortgages and loans to anybody who could breathe.

[griff]

Check the market today

griff

[Barcaldine]

I wholly concur with Joltman.

While business at the top end is unlikely to feel the pinch I believe the middle and lower markets will suffer as a direct result of the perception of Obama as an anti-business president. All his talk of hitting the "rich "(meaning above $100,000 a year) has a chilling effect on all investments, especially those in "rich boy" fields, like horse racing.

Redistribution is his stated goal and that makes those of us who work hard for a living nervous that he will implement his socialistic plans for the benefit of those who live off the government.

[LB]

So the prez is re-elected. My first prediction is that median sales numbers drop at Kee Nov as business people with $ head even further to the edge of the sidelines and keep their financial powder dry.

Second is that the Greater Recession of 2014 will be successfully be blamed on a Republican Congress and/or George Bush

jm

The sales average and the sales median both rose significantly today.

[Joltman]

The first couple days of the sale are star studded with the big players (I termed 'sheiks') who are basically immune to the general economy, having enough free cash to bid however they want. For the smaller purchaser, who may rely on a business plan as part of his overall financial picture, the specter of higher taxes, slowing growth (due to higher taxes), rising costs due to Obamacare to cover employees, etc. makes taking a leveraged plunge on horseflesh a far less attractive venture - or better, downright stupid.

The foal crops tell the story - on the breeder side the risk is simply not worth it. Retrenchment. Sidelines - keep your powder dry - another 4 years (?). At some point though, there will be a great opportunity to come back in.

jm

[griff]

It's the huge pending natural gas energy glut that is going to turn around this economy. That turn around would come quicker if the federal and state governments would add tax incentives but it will eventually come as Adam Smith will demand it come.

There will be life after Obama.

griff

[Patuxet]

The stock market has often sold off on the day after Democratic victories in presidential elections, particularly when there had been doubt going into the election over who would win. But the market has tended to perform better under Democratic administrations than Republican ones.

Since 1928, there have been four post-election days when the market did worse than it did this year. but in each case, stocks rose in the following four years. By contrast, the market climbed 1.1 percent in 2004, after George W. Bush won a second term, but lost 12 percent the next four years.

[bdw0617]

while we are on the subject is there anyway that we can ever get horses to be tax write offs again?

[griff]

I need to talk to my CPA but I thought we were writing my horses off; all expenses and of course reporting any income and/or capital gains.

Also thought, and again, could be wrong, but thought you could still depreciate a brood mare.. I'll have to check on that also..


IF this is true what kind of additional write off do you propose?/

griff

[Georgerz]

If the horses are for business purposes, they are treated as such, and you have to report the related income and business expenses. Depreciation or write off of a horse has rules and guidelines.
If the horse is a pet or for any non-commercial/revenue generating activity, then there is no deduction of any kind that can be taken.