Lost in the Fog 7 for 7
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Derby2004
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Lost in the Fog 7 for 7
He just won the Riva Ridge. What a horse. Could he have a chance at champion 3 year old, or would it go to Alex given he won the Belmont. If Bellamy Road can bounce back in the Travers and go on to the Classic, could he. Right now, it seems that there are a few horses in contention. What if Giacamo pulled off the Belmont. Who knows
Re: Lost in the Fog 7 for 7
Derby2004 wrote:He just won the Riva Ridge. What a horse. Could he have a chance at champion 3 year old, or would it go to Alex given he won the Belmont. If Bellamy Road can bounce back in the Travers and go on to the Classic, could he. Right now, it seems that there are a few horses in contention. What if Giacamo pulled off the Belmont. Who knows
Barring weirdness between now and October, he's more or less got the sprinter title locked up and, just like Kitten's Joy last year, they will NOT give a 'specialist' the age title as well as the specialist title ... especially with a dual classic winner in the same year.
Alex is 3yo champ. Bank on it. For another 3yo to even think about taking the title from him now is going to require MULTIPLE grade 1 wins over older horses (over more than 7 furlongs). I don't see that happening. Afleet Alex has met the standard set by Charismatic/War Emblem/Funny Cide etc. It's up to someone else to meet the standard set by Holy Bull/Key To The Mint.
And I swear, I've made that same speech 5 years in a row, 9 times in the last 12 years. ONE of these days, it's going to sink in and people will stop jumping to the "[X] is in the running for 3yoOY with [Dual Classic winner]". Unless [X] wins a couple of G1s against older horses, NO ONE will take a 3yo title away from a dual classic winner. PERIOD.
I agree with everything Sam has said.
If things continue well for Foggy, Champion Sprinter.
Afleet Alex is hands down choice for Champ 3-Year-Old, even if he didn't see another race this year. If we see him in the BC Classic in October and he wins it, you can add Horse of the Year to that.
The mighty Ghostzapper couldn't run a :24.50 1/4 at the end of a mile and a half on his best day.
If things continue well for Foggy, Champion Sprinter.
Afleet Alex is hands down choice for Champ 3-Year-Old, even if he didn't see another race this year. If we see him in the BC Classic in October and he wins it, you can add Horse of the Year to that.
The mighty Ghostzapper couldn't run a :24.50 1/4 at the end of a mile and a half on his best day.
hi jL
You wrote "If things continue well for Foggy, Champion Sprinter."
He's not even a G1 winner yet...arguably he's got more to accomplish before he's got a championship in the bag.
No doubt he's a brilliant colt...but racing against the kind of horses he's confronted thus far is nothing like what could be thrown at him in the months ahead. I hope he stays sound...he'll be fun to follow, and see in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (if he's supplemented).
As for Afleet Alex...you can go All-IN that he'll win the 3-yo eclipse. Is there even a 1-in-a-million chance that another 3-yo could win it? Maybe.
And if he wins the BC Classic...he's Horse of the Year...that's a tall order...but an exciting possibility. And even if he doen't win the classic...if Ghostzapper stumbles and AA continues to impress...his chances for Horse of the Year are very possible.
In the meantime, others...including Bellamy Road (assuming he's back at 100%)...will be gunning for AA. The Haskell...Travers etc could be very exciting.
You wrote "The mighty Ghostzapper couldn't run a :24.50 1/4 at the end of a mile and a half on his best day."
It's not about the fractions...it's about who gets to the finish line first. Afleet Alex is a wonderful horse...but I assure you he'll have his work cut out for him when he steps up to compete against the big boys. He might very well make the transition beautifully (I sense he will)...but right now...I suggest he couldn't warm up Ghostzapper...at any distance.
Respectfully
You wrote "If things continue well for Foggy, Champion Sprinter."
He's not even a G1 winner yet...arguably he's got more to accomplish before he's got a championship in the bag.
No doubt he's a brilliant colt...but racing against the kind of horses he's confronted thus far is nothing like what could be thrown at him in the months ahead. I hope he stays sound...he'll be fun to follow, and see in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (if he's supplemented).
As for Afleet Alex...you can go All-IN that he'll win the 3-yo eclipse. Is there even a 1-in-a-million chance that another 3-yo could win it? Maybe.
And if he wins the BC Classic...he's Horse of the Year...that's a tall order...but an exciting possibility. And even if he doen't win the classic...if Ghostzapper stumbles and AA continues to impress...his chances for Horse of the Year are very possible.
In the meantime, others...including Bellamy Road (assuming he's back at 100%)...will be gunning for AA. The Haskell...Travers etc could be very exciting.
You wrote "The mighty Ghostzapper couldn't run a :24.50 1/4 at the end of a mile and a half on his best day."
It's not about the fractions...it's about who gets to the finish line first. Afleet Alex is a wonderful horse...but I assure you he'll have his work cut out for him when he steps up to compete against the big boys. He might very well make the transition beautifully (I sense he will)...but right now...I suggest he couldn't warm up Ghostzapper...at any distance.
Respectfully
Don't forget, there were some really slow fractions during the mid-portion of the Belmont to allow Afleet Alex to have gas left in the tank at the end. All races are different, and chances of that race being repeated against Ghostzapper are pretty unlikely. Neither will be running 1 1/2 miles, and other classic contenders will be appearing by Breeders' Cup Day. Hopefully we have enough unretired colts to make it interesting.
Rocking H
henthorn wrote:Don't forget, there were some really slow fractions during the mid-portion of the Belmont to allow Afleet Alex to have gas left in the tank at the end. All races are different, and chances of that race being repeated against Ghostzapper are pretty unlikely. Neither will be running 1 1/2 miles, and other classic contenders will be appearing by Breeders' Cup Day. Hopefully we have enough unretired colts to make it interesting.
Jinx
jL wrote:I agree with everything Sam has said.
If things continue well for Foggy, Champion Sprinter.
The mighty Ghostzapper couldn't run a :24.50 1/4 at the end of a mile and a half on his best day.
Ghostzapper never went 12 furlongs, but he finished at a 1 1/4 miles in the BC Classic in 23.60. That's a nice come-home time.
LITF is a wonderful 3-yr-old sprinter whose toughest tests lie ahead. He has not yet faced GI competition within his own age group, much less the even bigger challenge when he must face top older horses.
Last year, I thought the only thing disqualifying Smarty Jones as Horse of the Year was that he didn't have enough starts, didn't race the entire season; So they gave it to Ghostzapper ( 4 starts) SJ certainly did the most to bring the sport to the attention of the general public, and that should count for something. OK, this should have been a January post.
Ill-bred wrote:LITF is a wonderful 3-yr-old sprinter whose toughest tests lie ahead. He has not yet faced GI competition within his own age group, much less the even bigger challenge when he must face top older horses.
Okay, in all fairness to Lost in the Fog, you can't be playing this "He hasn't faced G1 competition" card as heavy-handedly as many would like just yet.
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY THIS YEAR.
The FIRST G1 for 3yos at a sprint distance (under a mile) is the King's Bishop in August, which he is aiming for.
The only one for 2yos is the Hopeful (and, IIRC, he was still a young "don't know what we really have yet" baby when that went off last year.)
The first sprint G1 for 3yo+ was the Carter back in April, and I would have skipped that one too. The next available G1 spot is the Triple Bend at Hollywood in July (and, for purely selfish reasons, I hope he passes that as well.)
So lay off the poor boy about not having been in G1 competition
