Another gray again in the KENTUCKY DERBY ????????

[Jorge]

Last year, by this time, Giacomo breezed so well I expected a good effort from him in the Derby.

This time, the race seems equally interesting. Never in the history of this event, a gray has won a Derby after a previous gray Derby winner. Better yet! Russell Baze has never won a Derby. His mount has a good overall record. Hmmm, Cause To Believe looks interesting.

But Steppenwolfer cannot be discarded. I like Steppenwolfer's racing style more but such a big field is always a risk. If a shocker wins again, why not Flashy Bull who entered at the last minute. Of course, this scenario is only applicable if a gray wins. A gray win again? Who knows? (Not a prediction but.......hmmm, a feeling).

But I have another thing to add. Why people still analize the Kentucky Derby as a run-of-the-mill race? No way. These sophomores have never raced 10 furlongs. Never raced under 126 pounds. Never raced within a field of 20 competitors with practically all top notch jockeys. Never raced a race where the first 2 furlongs are so crucial. Why then people get surprised with a so called surprised winner. This field is very balanced which means that only a Spectacular Bid-type of horse can make it look an easy event.

For those reason, I think that any of the grays can well "surprise" us.

[Jorge]

[quote= This field is very balanced which means that only a Spectacular Bid-type of horse can make it look an easy event./quote]


Steppenwolfer arrived third and the second place horse was a surprised too. See the point.

But let me tell you something: the horse that won the Derby IS A SPECTACULAR BID KIND OF HORSE. No fluke with Barbaro.

As per Steppenwolfer, he reminds me so much of High Echelon (1967), who arrived third in the Derby, fourth in the Preakness and won the Belmont. I don't expect a better effort from Steppenwolfer in the Preakness (too short for him), but who knows, perhaps the Belmont will fit him nicely. I would expect a better race from Cause To Believe.

Again, congratulations to Barbaro. He is for real.

[Jorge]

I like the chances of PADDY OPRADO. I wouldn't expect an "out-of-gas" performance from him this time. Not because of the shorter distance this time, but rather because he wasted too much energy and ground in the Derby and the field will be smaller now and significant, because he is a lightly raced maturing colt. The probabilities seems to be in his favor. Remember that the Derby time was so-so, in spite of the track condition.