HOTY 2009 - Shades of '98

[spinround]

I can't help but feeling that the HOTY picture we are looking at is very similar to one faced in 1998. That year an undefeated horse who was criticized for having a 'soft' season won the BC Classic over a rival who had what was considered a very strong season. Even though the two actually met up in the Classic, voters chose to honor that day's loser for his overall body of work.

The records of these two horses have a surprising similarity to this year's Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Consider:

Awesome Again - 6 for 6 including the Classic
Zenyatta - 5 for 5 including the Classic
Skip Away - 7 for 9 including 5 G-1 wins, lost the Classic
Rachel Alexandra - 8 for 8 including 5 G-1 wins, didn't race in Classic

So what puts Zenyatta's season that far ahead of Awesome Again - or what puts Rachel so far behind Skip Away? Awesome Again's Classic field was one of the strongest on record. I've heard spin that Zenyatta faced one of the deepest Classic fields and I laugh at the comparison. I know in the past horses have been honored as HOTY for a complete body of work, but really - it's Horse of the YEAR, not the past two or three. I just can't get past the disparity in Zen's and Rachel's records this year.

[Toral]

If we consider the competition between the two, that might give a better idea of their schedule strengths. Sorry if this burns your eyeballs.

2009 Zenyatta:

Milady H (G2)- defeated Life is Sweet (won Ladies Classic (G1), Santa Margarita Invt (G1), El Encino (G2), La Canada (G2) 3rd HGCH (G1)), Allicansayis wow (2nd Del Mar Breeder's Cup Mile (G2)), Gambler's Justice, Champagne Eyes, and Taste's Sis
Vanity H (G1)- defeated Briecat (won Adoration H), Dawn after Dawn (won Wishing Well Stakes, Moscow Burning S, 2nd Churcill Distaff Turf Mile (G2)), Hot 'n Dusty, Allicansayis wow, and Modification
Clement Hirsch S (G1)- defeated Anabaa's Creation, Lethal Heat (2nd Ladies Secret (G1), Palomar H (G2), 3rd Del Mar Breeder's Cup Mile (G2), Monrovia H (G3)), Life is Sweet, Dawn after Dawn, Tidal Dance, and Champagne Eyes
Ladies Secret S (G1)- defeated Lethal Heat, Cocoa Beach (3rd Ladies Secret), Life is Sweet, Anabaa's Creation, Made for Magic, and Briecat
Breeder's Cup Classic (G1)- defeated Gio Ponti (won Frank E. Kilroe Mile H (G1), Manhattan H (G1), Man O' War S (G1), Arlington Million S (G1), 2nd Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1)), Twice Over (won Champion S (G1), 3rd Lockinge S (G1), Earl of Sefton S (G3)), Summer Bird (won JCGC (G1), Travers S (G1), Belmont S (G1), 2nd Haskell Invt (G1), 3rd Arkansas Derby (G2)), Colonel John (2nd Goodwood S (G1)), Richard's Kid (won Pacific Classic (G1), 3rd Goodwood S (G1)), Awesome Gem (won Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2), 2nd Eddie Read H (G1), Longacres Mile (G3), 3rd Berkeley S (G3)), Regal Ransom (won Super Derby (G2), Mine That Bird (won Kentucky Derby (G1), 2nd Preakness S (G1), 3rd Belmont S (G1), West Virginia Derby (G2)), Rip Van Winkle (won Queen Elizabeth 2nd S (G1), Sussex S (G1), 2nd Eclipse S (G1)), Einstein (won Santa Anita H (G1), Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 2nd Pacific Classic (G1), 3rd Donn H (G1), Stephen Foster H (G1)), and Girolamo (won Jerome H (G2))

2009 Rachel Alexandra:

Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) - defeated Flying Spur (3rd Kentucky Oaks (G1)), Our Dahlia, Four Gifts (won Eight Belles S (G3), 2nd Silverbulletday S (G3)), African Skies, and War Tigress
Fantasy Stakes (G2) - defeated Afleet Deceit (2nd Honeybee S (G3)), Just Jenda (won Honeybee S (G3), Monmouth Oaks (G3), 2nd Eight Belles S (G3), 3rd Silverbulletday S (G3)), Bon Jovi Girl (2nd Black-Eyed Susan S (G2), Cotillion S (G2), 3rd Honeybee S (G3)), and Cats
[b]Kentucky Oaks (G1)[/b] - defeated Stone Legacy, Flying Spur, Be Fair (won Lake George S (G3)), Nan (2nd Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3rd Santa Ynez S (G2)), Gabby's Golden Gal (won Acorn S (G1)), and Tweeter
Preakness Stakes (G1) - defeated Mine That Bird (won Kentucky Derby (G1), 2nd Preakness S (G1), 3rd Belmont S (G1), West Virginia Derby (G2)), Musket Man (won Illinois Derby (G2), Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 3rd Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness S (G1), Sam F. Davis S (G3)), Flying Private (2nd Lanes End S (G2)), Big Drama (2nd Swale S (G2), West Virginia Derby (G3)), Papa Clem (won Arkansas Derby (G2), 2nd Robert B Lewis S (G2), Louisiana Derby (G2)), Terrain (3rd Louisiana Derby (G3)), Luv Gov, General Quarters (won Bluegrass S (G1), Sam F. Davis S (G3)), Friesan Fire (won Louisiana Derby (G2), Lecomte S (G3), Risen Star S (G3)), Pioneerof the Nile (won Santa Anita Derby (G1), Robert B. Lewis S (G2), San Felipe S (G2), 2nd Kentucky Derby (G1)), Tone It Down, and Take the Points (won Secretariat S (G1), Jamaica H (G1), 2nd Sham S (G3), 3rd Virginia Derby (G2))
Mother Goose Stakes (G1) - defeated Malibu Prayer (2nd Delaware Oaks (G2), Monmouth Oaks (G3)), Flashing (won Test S (G1), Nassau County S (G3))
Haskell Invitational (G1) - defeated Summer Bird (won JCGC (G1), Travers S (G1), Belmont S (G1), 2nd Haskell Invt (G1), 3rd Arkansas Derby (G2)), Colonel John (2nd Goodwood S (G1)), Munnings (won Woody Stephens S (G2), Tom Fool H (G2), 3rd King's Bishop (G1), Vosburgh S (G1)), Papa Clem (won Arkansas Derby (G2), 2nd Robert B Lewis S (G2), Louisiana Derby (G2)), Duke of Mischief, Atomic Rain and Bunker Hill
Woodward Stakes (G1) - defeated Macho Again (won Stephen Foster H (G1), New Orleans H (G2), 2nd Whitney H (G1)), Bullsbay (won Whitney H (G1), Alysheba S (G3), 2nd Hal's Hope S (G3)), Asiatic Boy (won Al Maktoum Challenge-Round 3 (G2), 2nd Stephen Foster H (G1), Suburban H (G1), 3rd Al Maktoum Challenge-Round 2 (G2)), It's a Bird (won Lone Star Park H (G3), 3rd New Orleans H (G2)), Past the Point, Cool Coal Man (2nd Excelsior S (G3), Alysheba S (G3)), and Da'Tara

If there was a year to give a Co-HOY award, this might be it.

[spinround]

I'm not sure what about the list of competition 'burns my eyeballs'? According to your post Rachel defeated 9 2009 G-1 winners, while Zenyatta defeated 8, 7 in just one start. One difficult race does not make up for a 'safe' season.

[wen8t]

doesn't it make a differnce in the age look at what ra has done as a 3 year old , z is 5 there is know way z was anywhere near as good as ra at that age.With ra being a 3 year old and did what she has done hands down no question who the horse of the year is. But that is just my opinion

[Toral]

I'm not sure what about the list of competition 'burns my eyeballs'? According to your post Rachel defeated 9 2009 G-1 winners, while Zenyatta defeated 8, 7 in just one start. One difficult race does not make up for a 'safe' season.

I was merely referring to the way the info is laid out, not anything about the quality of their campaigns.

[Dave C]

Spinround, your a RA fan, great for you, but you're letting it cloud your judgement. A restricted G1 race is not the same as an open G1 race. At the end of the day all the Eclipse is, is a $20 trophy for the owners to put on the mantle, there's no prize money and it doesn't really count for much in the breeding shed even for stallions (after their first crop). Everybody in horse racing has already made up their mind which one deserves it, your not going to convince the Z people no matter how you phrase your argument (and they aren't going to convince you either).

[spinround]

Lol Dave C, as a fan of both I won't be disappointed if either great horse is honored. What does disappoint me is the disproportionate weight one race carries in these discussions. I've wanted to see Z in so many races this year, and after her performance Saturday it is only that much more bittersweet. What could she have done over the past two years? As a fan I can't help but feel she could have electrified the sport winning the biggest races from coast to coast. I absolutely believe she would have been a factor in last year's Classic, this year's Santa Anita Handicap, wouldn't she have been an amazing entry in the Met Mile? And a matchup against Rachel in the Woodward would have been epic. With Rachel we saw what happens when an owner thinks out of the box and seeks out challenges for his horse. With Z we saw what happens when you choose a safe plan, rolling the dice only once. I just believe that by rewarding safe choices we are encouraging shorter, easier campaigns.

[geowarrior]

One of the most important and joyful things about Zenyatta is that she is retiring after three years of scintillating racing, which is more years than we are often treated to when a horse is as talented as she is, AND she is retiring completely sound.

All of these arguments about cherry picking are fine and strategy is no doubt important in choosing races. But with Zenyatta there has always been more than just strategy, there's the fact that she is enormous and always has been. Big horses often don't make it to training and they can be hard to keep in training if they do make it. That's probably a main reason why she didn't race at two. I value the wonderful memories of the races that Zenyatta ran rather than those she might have run, or might run in the future, because every consecutive victory, every minute that she ran and stayed perfect as well as sound, was more miraculous than the last, right up to that moment that will go down as one of the greatest in Breeders' Cup history.

The longer an unbeaten streak lasts, the greater the pressure to keep it up. I don't care who is Horse of the Year, but those who are involved in that discussion need to realize two things - Zenyatta's less busy racing record this year was nevertheless pressure filled because of the unbeaten streak carried in through the previous two seasons (sure Zenyatta didn't feel the pressure but her connections did for sure), and also neither Zenyatta nor Rachel Alexandra can be held responsible for the competition that has shown up to participate in the races for which they were entered.

And America, you can't have it both ways, if the Breeders' Cup is worthy of the name World Championships then the Open Classic SHOULD have more weight placed on it than other races. Otherwise shut up about the Breeders' Cup and its world championship status.

[spinround]

You know, before this year's HOTY question came up the only references I ever heard to the "World Championships" were derision. It's a joke, a marketing strategy that was pretty much laughed at by everyone outside the BC BoD. It even topped the univerally disliked decision to switch to a "Lady's Classic".

Being undefeated is a great accomplishment. But if you get to a point where you are more concerned with not losing then you are of testing your limits it becomes disheartening. I can't help but look at Cigar's win streak where he traveled across the country and around the world looking for competition. Most horses lose at least once in their career. Sometimes the quality of those losses do far more to show a horse's worth than a win.

[geowarrior]

You know, before this year's HOTY question came up the only references I ever heard to the "World Championships" were derision. It's a joke, a marketing strategy that was pretty much laughed at by everyone outside the BC BoD. It even topped the univerally disliked decision to switch to a "Lady's Classic".

Being undefeated is a great accomplishment. But if you get to a point where you are more concerned with not losing then you are of testing your limits it becomes disheartening. I can't help but look at Cigar's win streak where he traveled across the country and around the world looking for competition. Most horses lose at least once in their career. Sometimes the quality of those losses do far more to show a horse's worth than a win.

Your points are excellent, spinround, however I don't think that Zenyatta's connections were as concerned about not losing as your post suggests. In 2009 we are talking about 4 Grade 1 races for Zenyatta and a Grade 2. Zenyatta's connections could not know in advance what the entrants would be for these races, but with the graded status they had a reasonable expectation of high quality fields and the possibility of losing a race to end the winning streak. The connections certainly didn't travel around looking for weak races.

When I was talking about the streak, I was thinking more along the lines of the pressure on the humans not to make a mistake. Look at the criticism which was leveled at Mike Smith for his ride at Del Mar when he focused on the out-of-form Life is Sweet, letting the others get away and forcing the horse to rescue him. A horse with Zenyatta's running style rarely sports a long winning streak, never mind an unbeaten record, as there are so many ways for a deep closer to get into trouble. Zenyatta didn't have to lose to show her worth, for those who had doubts she showed it in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Or perhaps I should say, she indicated what her worth might be, because as Mike Smith says, they never got to the bottom of her - even in that amazing race.

As far as the 'world championships' designation goes, yes some people do use this term with derision, but a considerable number of analysts on tv and in the media are taking it seriously - listen again, for example, to Jerry Bailey's comments after Zenyatta's win, or Bob Baedeker's comments on the Monday after the race to hear the 'championships' argument being used.

I should say that my personal opinion is that the Breeders' Cup will not qualify as 'world championships' until there is regular participation from Japan and Australia - two of the greatest racing nations in the world. However, I reiterate my argument that if one subscribes to the concept of the Breeders' Cup as World Championship, then the Classic must be weighted more heavily than any other race in Horse of the Year discussions.

[Dave C]

Spinround: I had serious doubts about Z's competition level during the summer as well and would continue to do so if LIS had not won the distaff. Cocoa Beach is not the same horse she was last year but still she's no claimer. Z had to win the Classic to be seriously considered for HOTY: she did.

RA to win HOTY only had to show up. Skip Away did not win the Classic but he acquitted himself well against the best and was accorded HOTY for his full body of work. If Jackson wanted to think outside the box he could have put RA on the turf and run her against the other great filly: Goldikova. If he had done so he gets the moral victory for not running on the poly and still gets HOTY for RA. For the week before the race all the press would have been RA vs Goldikova, Z would have got very little coverage and the BC Mile would have been the most anticipated race on the card. No matter how she finished she would have been HOTY the moment she left the starting gate, just as Skip Away was.

As I said earlier I'm not going to convince that Z deserves HOTY, I'm just trying to help you understand why I believe Jackson doesn't deserve it for RA.

By not running RA in one of the BC races it very much looks like Jackson was cherry picking weak races for RA. The Preakness is only a G1 race because it is part of the triple crown. It consistently draws a weaker and smaller field than the G2 Arkansas Derby. The Woodward did not draw a strong field of older males. None of them were being pointed towards the BC even at the time of the Woodward and even if it was being run on real dirt. By opting for the Woodward over the Travers it looked like JJ was picking his spot which is fine, if he was going to end up at the BC in one of the races to take on the best.

[diomed]

Spinround: I had serious doubts about Z's competition level during the summer as well and would continue to do so if LIS had not won the distaff. Cocoa Beach is not the same horse she was last year but still she's no claimer. Z had to win the Classic to be seriously considered for HOTY: she did.

RA to win HOTY only had to show up. Skip Away did not win the Classic but he acquitted himself well against the best and was accorded HOTY for his full body of work. If Jackson wanted to think outside the box he could have put RA on the turf and run her against the other great filly: Goldikova. If he had done so he gets the moral victory for not running on the poly and still gets HOTY for RA. For the week before the race all the press would have been RA vs Goldikova, Z would have got very little coverage and the BC Mile would have been the most anticipated race on the card. No matter how she finished she would have been HOTY the moment she left the starting gate, just as Skip Away was.

As I said earlier I'm not going to convince that Z deserves HOTY, I'm just trying to help you understand why I believe Jackson doesn't deserve it for RA.

By not running RA in one of the BC races it very much looks like Jackson was cherry picking weak races for RA. The Preakness is only a G1 race because it is part of the triple crown. It consistently draws a weaker and smaller field than the G2 Arkansas Derby. The Woodward did not draw a strong field of older males. None of them were being pointed towards the BC even at the time of the Woodward and even if it was being run on real dirt. By opting for the Woodward over the Travers it looked like JJ was picking his spot which is fine, if he was going to end up at the BC in one of the races to take on the best.

I am sorry but they were not going to run a dirt horse on Turf to prove a point.
It doesn't matter when it comes to RA, if she would have run in the Travers then you would have a group that would say that she was "ducking" the older horses. If she would have run in the PE, she would have been "ducking" both boy divisions.
It wouldn't have mattered what they did with her to be quite honest.
When she was bought, they said EXACTLY what they intended to do with her. NOT RUN ON PLASTIC. So they did things that she would have never had the opportunity to do if she was in her old ownership. Do you honestly think they would have ran her vs any males at all?
Sigh.
I am not a fan of Jess Jackson either but I do appreciate what they did with her. In fact, part of me wishes they would have bought her BEFORE she ran in the Oaks because I really feel they would have run in the Derby instead.

Regardless,
The horse did need a rest and I am looking forward to next year.
For that alone, I am glad they did what was right for her.

I am really getting sick of both sides bashing and belittling what both these wonderful gals did this year.

[JimbleBrimble]

an undefeated horse who was criticized for having a 'soft' season

This is the "Rachel" character in your comparison, minus the 'undefeated' part, of course.

I just can't get past the disparity in Zen's and Rachel's records this year.

Nor can those of us who are actually in-the-know.

[JimbleBrimble]

If we consider the competition between the two, that might give a better idea of their schedule strengths. Sorry if this burns your eyeballs.

2009 Zenyatta:

Milady H (G2)- defeated Life is Sweet (won Ladies Classic (G1), Santa Margarita Invt (G1), El Encino (G2), La Canada (G2) 3rd HGCH (G1)), Allicansayis wow (2nd Del Mar Breeder's Cup Mile (G2)), Gambler's Justice, Champagne Eyes, and Taste's Sis
Vanity H (G1)- defeated Briecat (won Adoration H), Dawn after Dawn (won Wishing Well Stakes, Moscow Burning S, 2nd Churcill Distaff Turf Mile (G2)), Hot 'n Dusty, Allicansayis wow, and Modification
Clement Hirsch S (G1)- defeated Anabaa's Creation, Lethal Heat (2nd Ladies Secret (G1), Palomar H (G2), 3rd Del Mar Breeder's Cup Mile (G2), Monrovia H (G3)), Life is Sweet, Dawn after Dawn, Tidal Dance, and Champagne Eyes
Ladies Secret S (G1)- defeated Lethal Heat, Cocoa Beach (3rd Ladies Secret), Life is Sweet, Anabaa's Creation, Made for Magic, and Briecat
Breeder's Cup Classic (G1)- defeated Gio Ponti (won Frank E. Kilroe Mile H (G1), Manhattan H (G1), Man O' War S (G1), Arlington Million S (G1), 2nd Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1)), Twice Over (won Champion S (G1), 3rd Lockinge S (G1), Earl of Sefton S (G3)), Summer Bird (won JCGC (G1), Travers S (G1), Belmont S (G1), 2nd Haskell Invt (G1), 3rd Arkansas Derby (G2)), Colonel John (2nd Goodwood S (G1)), Richard's Kid (won Pacific Classic (G1), 3rd Goodwood S (G1)), Awesome Gem (won Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2), 2nd Eddie Read H (G1), Longacres Mile (G3), 3rd Berkeley S (G3)), Regal Ransom (won Super Derby (G2), Mine That Bird (won Kentucky Derby (G1), 2nd Preakness S (G1), 3rd Belmont S (G1), West Virginia Derby (G2)), Rip Van Winkle (won Queen Elizabeth 2nd S (G1), Sussex S (G1), 2nd Eclipse S (G1)), Einstein (won Santa Anita H (G1), Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1), 2nd Pacific Classic (G1), 3rd Donn H (G1), Stephen Foster H (G1)), and Girolamo (won Jerome H (G2))

2009 Rachel Alexandra:

Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) - defeated Flying Spur (3rd Kentucky Oaks (G1)), Our Dahlia, Four Gifts (won Eight Belles S (G3), 2nd Silverbulletday S (G3)), African Skies, and War Tigress
Fantasy Stakes (G2) - defeated Afleet Deceit (2nd Honeybee S (G3)), Just Jenda (won Honeybee S (G3), Monmouth Oaks (G3), 2nd Eight Belles S (G3), 3rd Silverbulletday S (G3)), Bon Jovi Girl (2nd Black-Eyed Susan S (G2), Cotillion S (G2), 3rd Honeybee S (G3)), and Cats
[b]Kentucky Oaks (G1)[/b] - defeated Stone Legacy, Flying Spur, Be Fair (won Lake George S (G3)), Nan (2nd Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3rd Santa Ynez S (G2)), Gabby's Golden Gal (won Acorn S (G1)), and Tweeter
Preakness Stakes (G1) - defeated Mine That Bird (won Kentucky Derby (G1), 2nd Preakness S (G1), 3rd Belmont S (G1), West Virginia Derby (G2)), Musket Man (won Illinois Derby (G2), Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 3rd Kentucky Derby (G1), Preakness S (G1), Sam F. Davis S (G3)), Flying Private (2nd Lanes End S (G2)), Big Drama (2nd Swale S (G2), West Virginia Derby (G3)), Papa Clem (won Arkansas Derby (G2), 2nd Robert B Lewis S (G2), Louisiana Derby (G2)), Terrain (3rd Louisiana Derby (G3)), Luv Gov, General Quarters (won Bluegrass S (G1), Sam F. Davis S (G3)), Friesan Fire (won Louisiana Derby (G2), Lecomte S (G3), Risen Star S (G3)), Pioneerof the Nile (won Santa Anita Derby (G1), Robert B. Lewis S (G2), San Felipe S (G2), 2nd Kentucky Derby (G1)), Tone It Down, and Take the Points (won Secretariat S (G1), Jamaica H (G1), 2nd Sham S (G3), 3rd Virginia Derby (G2))
Mother Goose Stakes (G1) - defeated Malibu Prayer (2nd Delaware Oaks (G2), Monmouth Oaks (G3)), Flashing (won Test S (G1), Nassau County S (G3))
Haskell Invitational (G1) - defeated Summer Bird (won JCGC (G1), Travers S (G1), Belmont S (G1), 2nd Haskell Invt (G1), 3rd Arkansas Derby (G2)), Colonel John (2nd Goodwood S (G1)), Munnings (won Woody Stephens S (G2), Tom Fool H (G2), 3rd King's Bishop (G1), Vosburgh S (G1)), Papa Clem (won Arkansas Derby (G2), 2nd Robert B Lewis S (G2), Louisiana Derby (G2)), Duke of Mischief, Atomic Rain and Bunker Hill
Woodward Stakes (G1) - defeated Macho Again (won Stephen Foster H (G1), New Orleans H (G2), 2nd Whitney H (G1)), Bullsbay (won Whitney H (G1), Alysheba S (G3), 2nd Hal's Hope S (G3)), Asiatic Boy (won Al Maktoum Challenge-Round 3 (G2), 2nd Stephen Foster H (G1), Suburban H (G1), 3rd Al Maktoum Challenge-Round 2 (G2)), It's a Bird (won Lone Star Park H (G3), 3rd New Orleans H (G2)), Past the Point, Cool Coal Man (2nd Excelsior S (G3), Alysheba S (G3)), and Da'Tara

If there was a year to give a Co-HOY award, this might be it.

Hey great!

At least you are showing the potential for doing it right, and you clearly have the aptitude for doing so.

But the problem is, in order for your logic to get us anywhere, we'd have to adjust the meaning of a key race to incorporate what the entrants did two or three months/years earlier instead of what they did subsequently.

And therein lies the telling disparity.