My "way too early" derby top 10 list

pfrsue · Postby **pfrsue** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 10:34 am

Whirlaway wrote:and what is the word on Kantharos?

As Kari already told you, Kantharos has been retired since August.

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 11:09 am

Sorry, and thanks.

I overlooked the important post by Kari. Is there no one else?

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Tue Mar 01, 2011 2:55 pm

Whirlaway wrote:I took those names form this list: http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2011/2011_dual_qualifiers.htm.

Guess we can scratch To Honor and Serve considering his last, although that was his first race in three months and can't be ruled out; Boys of Tuscanova is off the Trail; Comma to the Top is unproven on dirt and from information provided, Pluck is running on the grass. So, from this list Soldat need only beat Uncle Mo' JPs Gusto, Jaycito and what is the word on Kantharos?

IS THERE NO ONE ELSE! . . . IS THERE NO ONE ELSE??

~
Soldat won a nine furlong Alw race; won the nine furlong G2 FOY and is aimed at the Florida Derby - that will give him three, nine furlong preps. Will they go all out in the Florida Derby? If so, will he have enough energy for the big dance? If he burns most of his energy in the Florida Derby, will they skip the Kentucky Derby and go for the Preakness 5.5, the $5.5 million owner and trainer bonus for any horse who wins a Florida Derby prep, the Florida Derby, and the Preakness?

Anyway it goes, I suggest Uncle Mo' should get to runnin' because there are going to be others of equal class in better condition.

In the DRF: McLaughlin also admitted that Soldat got a perfect trip in the Fountain of Youth. “The race shape turned out to be just what we figured it would be, even though he didn’t break great,” McLaughlin said. “As a handicapper, we had to go to the lead in this one. Obviously, there will be a few new horses in the Florida Derby, and we know if someone like that horse who won the Hutcheson [Flashpoint] goes in there we won’t be in front. The only thing we really haven’t done much of with him is sit behind the pace, but we have five weeks to work on that. I might have him practice in the morning and put him behind horses in a workout to see how he handles it.”

That is what scares me about this horse.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Mar 05, 2011 11:09 pm

I have it from a pretty good source, that sway away will be making his next start in the rebel stakes.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Tue Mar 08, 2011 10:18 pm

there is a rumor going around that archarcharch was sold after his last race for 2 million

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Mar 09, 2011 11:34 pm

I don't normally even think about bothering with these para mutual derby feature pools, you never get value, and wtf is the field at 2-1.. but, this week I saw sway away is going to be one of the horses in the futures pool, and even better, the rebel is not being ran this week. You might actually mess around and get 30 to 1 on him or something like that, before he runs his last 2 prep races. I am very intrigued.

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Sat Mar 19, 2011 8:06 pm

bdw0617 wrote:updated top five

1. sway away- his comeback race he earned a 100 beyer speed figure. It's one of the top beyers this year, not the top but one of the top, but 2 things separate it from others. 1. he is the only horse to run over a 100, outside of bind who isn't running in the TC, who clearly wants more ground and 2. he did it off a 7 month layoff. He finished behind a horse that is about as fast a horse as you will find anywhere. This horse in 3 starts, has hooked probably 2 of the best 7F horses you will find anywhere in the country regardless of age, and probably should have won both races.

2. Flashpoint- while his pedigree says he doesn't want ground, pomeroy is by boundry who also sired big brown. Plus his bottom side suggests he can get a route of ground, so does his running style. I just like sway away's up side a tad bit more.

3. uncle mo - Has the talent, I dont' like the plan to get him to the derby

4. solddat- the only question I have about him is what happens when another horse heads him up and makes him run faster.

5. Breathern - I think he is a cut below the top 3 but unlike most, will go 2 turns, 10F. I think this is the type of horse that will end up winning a race like the jim dandy

although I am leery about horses running too many times at gulfstream

~

Sorry about the Sway Away . . . horse racing, merciless game.

Still time to revamp your list and come out fightin' - long way to the first Saturday in May. I last read you didn't care much for Mo' and his weak works and soft Derby path and you didn't think the Soldier had the speed to win the big dance. Time to regroup . . . put together another list!

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 6:50 am

no revamp. just didn't run his race. if he lost a tooth he should come out fine. i believe those are the best 5 in the country when it's all said and done. i even forgive breathern's race.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:05 am

lol, this ironically reminds me of 2005 with sway away's daddy. people could not jump off afleet alex's bandwagon fast enough after the rebel stakes, he just threw in a clunker. sometimes hosres just dont' run for whatever the reason, but there is no denying his talent. I still think when it's all said and done he will be the afleet alex of this crop

endspurt stables · Postby **endspurt stables** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 2:47 pm

I think Sway Away is a one turn sprinter. We will see.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Wed Mar 23, 2011 3:39 pm

there isn't a thing about that pedigree that says one turn sprinter. horse lost a freaking tooth, come on lol

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri Apr 01, 2011 11:04 am

Uncle mo will not win the Kentucky derby. no question in my mind now.

He's talented, i would even expect him to clean house in the summer, but he needs to run in some real .races. everyone has been questioning his campaign this year. Hell, I'm questioning now his entire career. he hasn't had ONE tough race yet. This is not a year where you have a big brown and everyone else, he isn't that muich better than everyone else he can find some horses. some good ones down in florida this week. He needs that before he goes into the derby.

this is alot like zenyatta actually. i said in june last year, zenyatta is going to lose a race. as in one. they can either go to the Stephen foster and lose, then go back and win the breeders cup classic, or they can go to the vanity and win and lose the breeders cup classic. mo needs to be punched in the mouth. He needs see a horse that isn't going top stop running in the stretch.

I did some research. The fastest beyer a horse has run against uncle mo is a 94, ran by boys at T in the breeders cup juve. There are horses better than that out there.

dublino · Postby **dublino** » Fri Apr 01, 2011 11:17 am

bdw0617 wrote:Uncle mo will not win the Kentucky derby. no question in my mind now.

I did some research. The fastest beyer a horse has run against uncle mo is a 94, ran by boys at T in the breeders cup juve. There are horses better than that out there.

Filed and duly noted.

Horses don't run on paper - you can assign a horse any number you wish if he comes out ther next race and loses to a horse with a lesser number what happens then, the numbers assigned get changed?

Boys at Toscanova got his ass handed to him on a plate in the Juvenile.

Watch the race again and focus on Boys at Toscanova see how easily his wins his race then watch the horse race again and watch the winner who slams him by 5 lenghts easily.

Uncle Mo is undefeated and will stay that way until May at least if not longer.

Watch out for a horse called Pathfork he is supposed to be heading your way later this year.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sat Apr 02, 2011 4:50 pm

the "undercard" race you want to watch is the 7th at santa anita tomorrow. wilborn looks legit.

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Sat Apr 02, 2011 6:01 pm

bdw0617 wrote:Uncle mo will not win the Kentucky derby. no question in my mind now.

He's talented, i would even expect him to clean house in the summer, but he needs to run in some real .races. everyone has been questioning his campaign this year. Hell, I'm questioning now his entire career. he hasn't had ONE tough race yet. This is not a year where you have a big brown and everyone else, he isn't that muich better than everyone else he can find some horses. some good ones down in florida this week. He needs that before he goes into the derby.

this is alot like zenyatta actually. i said in june last year, zenyatta is going to lose a race. as in one. they can either go to the Stephen foster and lose, then go back and win the breeders cup classic, or they can go to the vanity and win and lose the breeders cup classic. mo needs to be punched in the mouth. He needs see a horse that isn't going top stop running in the stretch.

I did some research. The fastest beyer a horse has run against uncle mo is a 94, ran by boys at T in the breeders cup juve. There are horses better than that out there.

I wouldn't close the book on Mo' just yet. If you look at his BC Juvenile win, no one even came close and I believe that was one of the best ever BC Juveniles. He is a race hoss' and he comes back to the same track, same jock, same trainer and he is one year older. I agree he is vulnerable at this time . . . but we'll see what he has for em' come the Wood. If he runs off w/the Wood he is as good as any of em' and he'll be dead fit w/fresh legs. I gotta consider him a threat until proven otherwise . . .