The Factor for real?

[bdw0617]

i have said it once, i will say it again, yoyu want to look for a horse that is improving and that is projecting towards the derby.

....

every race, the horse is getting better and better and better. he has not gone backwards yet. that, not stanima, not closing abitity, etc, is what you need to look for. there is no doubt in my mind now this horse will get 10F becuase baffert will have him ready.

BDW everything you say is true and it in no way is mutually exclusive with my points. Thing is, this horse is not the only one who has been steadily improving. Soldat and Uncle Mo both came out of their most recent races very well, and are head and shoulders above everybody else at this point. Stay Thirsty should move ahead from the Gotham. Premier Pegasus just ran a corker. The question isn't is he improving, which he obviously is, the question is, will this horse improve quickly enough to reach the same level on the first Saturday in May as his potential rivals? I'm not convinced.

Compare him with Soldat. TF has been in the lead in every race since his very first. Soldat proved that he can lay off and stalk the pace in Saratoga. He then showed he could rate, run wide, weave in to the rail, split horses to make a move, and finish strong in the BCJT. He didn't catch Pluck, but nobody was going to catch Pluck that day. In the allowance in the slop, he got eyeballed by another horse before taking off, and in the Fountain of Youth he got in the lead and stayed there. Though I still wouldn't bet him (because I think the temptation to get out front and use his natural speed would be too high), if I had to choose between the two I would take Soldat for those very reasons rather than TF.

are they really improving, or are they just winning? I will give you solddat, I do think he's on the improve, but no uncle mo.

no horse, in the country has gotten better from January to the end of march then the factor

[Jorge]

In my view, according to how he is running this horse is either, a mighty all-distance horse a-la Buckpasser with Kentucky Derby potential, or another super sprinter with limited distance capabilities (as a sophomore)like Lure. I would like to see him running from off the pace to calibrate his
alledged potential. If he continues improving his winning margins and distances then we are witnessing the 21st century Spectacular Bid.

[Jorge]

Reading Avalyn Hunter's article on The Factor and the absence of heavyweight stamina sources in his pedigree makes me wonder about whether he may be carrying a huge heart a-la Secretariat. His last victory
makes one want to explore this angle. How to know this? If that's the case who is to "blame"?

[dublino]

His last victory
makes one want to explore this angle. If that's the case who is to "blame"?

His last victory was a walk in the park against nobodys, he won't be allowed slow the pace down midrace and get away with it against top class colts.

Jeepers don't mention Blame, that horse annoys me can't wait until he fails as a stallion and I will say "I told you so, don't worry"!!!!!!!!!!!

[Mahubah]

It is possible that The Factor could be carrying Buckpasser's "large heart" X-chromosome as his dam is by Miswaki, a maternal grandson of Buckpasser. Even so, my own guess is that The Factor would do better pointed to the Met Mile than the Derby. Not that I'd be sorry to be wrong.

[bdw0617]

the thing to keep in mind with these types of horses, the further he goes, the softer the fractions are going to be. He's more like hard spun/ lion heart than he is convyeance. this horse will get 10F. might not be his prefered distance, but he will get it

[Shammy Davis]

THE FACTOR probably is a miler, but if Calvin Borel somehow mysteriously ends up riding him in KD, I'm hedging my bets with a few $$ on his nose to win.

[Whirlaway]

NO doubt he has the connections, trainer, jockey and graded stakes earnings, so he'll be dancin'. First time two turns data indicates him right there with the best of em'. Achilles is early speed and we don't know his stoutness - did the Rebel deplete his energy stores? His next race is critical. The SA Derby or the A Derby. I've read the Baff say the OP surface is "more demanding", so likely the AD. Once off the OP surface and onto the CD surface, he may thrive - back onto a nice, tight, unforgiving speed favoring oval, he is right back at home. He may just glide over the top of the CD strip like he was breezing. How many of this crop can contend with a 70 second breezing six furlongs!? I don't know about a Spectacular Bid but he might grind em' into the dirt like a Spend a Buck.

He is dangerous and concerns me. He gets out War Front, they'll have to catch him. I figure this guy is for real. Closely watching his works and looking forward to his next race.

[bdw0617]

churhcill and oaklawn are very similar surfaces.

If I were a betting man, i would not wager on the factor in the arkansas derby, simply becuase baffert knows the horse can't be fully cranked 3 races in a row. i would expect him to back off him a little so don't be suprised if he gets beat, but he will run well.


I hate horses like this lol. beucase i know he's going to lose his next race, but i can't toss him becuase i know he's going to run better next time.

[xfactor fan]

To my eye Miswaki looks more like Princequillo than Buckpasser. Anyone have or could point to a conformation style photo of The Factor?

[Jorge]

Here a conformation photo along with several other photos as posted
in a thread about him at The Color Corner:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fE0KpGZb_kk/T ... Factor.jpg

http://isportsweb.com/wp-content/upload ... 2AmCap.jpg

http://d.yimg.com/a/p/sp/ap/47/fullj.81 ... c27105.jpg

http://www.surebetracingnews.com/second ... 5B1%5D.gif

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--2RocQJafBU/T ... Factor.jpg

http://www.finalturngallery.com/g2/main ... factor.JPG

http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/lists-t ... 323032.jpg

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_LeM-cMaRoJM/T ... MG1280.JPG

[Joltman]

NO doubt he has the connections, trainer, jockey and graded stakes earnings, so he'll be dancin'. First time two turns data indicates him right there with the best of em'. Achilles is early speed and we don't know his stoutness - did the Rebel deplete his energy stores? His next race is critical. The SA Derby or the A Derby. I've read the Baff say the OP surface is "more demanding", so likely the AD. Once off the OP surface and onto the CD surface, he may thrive - back onto a nice, tight, unforgiving speed favoring oval, he is right back at home. He may just glide over the top of the CD strip like he was breezing. How many of this crop can contend with a 70 second breezing six furlongs!? I don't know about a Spectacular Bid but he might grind em' into the dirt like a Spend a Buck.

He is dangerous and concerns me. He gets out War Front, they'll have to catch him. I figure this guy is for real. Closely watching his works and looking forward to his next race.

This guy is freaky brilliant, but does he HAVE to go top. I'm not talking about closing from the clouds, but if my target was the KD, I would consider trying a stalking trip in the next race. See how he rates and handles himself around other horses, takes a little dirt, etc. This could be really important if he makes it to the Derby and gets the typical trip, an inside post or whatever. I think he's definitely good enough to stretch his speed if he can learn to save some energy for that long stretch run.

jm

[Whirlaway]

churhcill and oaklawn are very similar surfaces.

If I were a betting man, i would not wager on the factor in the arkansas derby, simply becuase baffert knows the horse can't be fully cranked 3 races in a row. i would expect him to back off him a little so don't be suprised if he gets beat, but he will run well.


I hate horses like this lol. beucase i know he's going to lose his next race, but i can't toss him becuase i know he's going to run better next time.

Your post raises interesting and fundamental questions.

Will the Baff take it easy on The Factor come the AD and save him for the KD? If he does kinda take it easy on him in his next, won't that leave him short on conditioning for the KD? If you think The Factor won't be cranked up for the AD what do you think about Soldat and the FD? Looks like McLaughlin will have Soldat fully cranked for that one. Do you think Soldat will peak in the FD instead of the KD? And what about the Mo'? He has a mile under his belt, another nine furlongs in the Wood should have him set.

Quite frankly, I can't see how they beat a fresh and dead fit Uncle Mo'. It seems to me Pletcher has this one finally figured out. Mo' looks to run his best race in the KD while Soldat and The Factor may peak too soon. Ultimately, I think The Factor will be short of energy come the Derby because he just hasn't had a break! It'll be interesting to see how game Soldat is when he and Mo' come eye to eye - looking forward to that one!

[Turn-To Fan]

Quote about The Factor from Steve Haskin: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-ra ... oints.aspx

"...he galloped out an extra furlong after the Rebel. Jockey Martin Garcia said the colt just took a huge breath around the three-eighths pole, as if realizing he’s going to be out there longer than usual."

The extra furlong gallop out may account for The Factor being out of breath after the race. Sounds like Baffert wanted to test him and make him tired. The comment from Garcia makes me think the colt is smart, still learning and has a big lung capacity. If he continues to advance in his next race (a win is not necessary), he will be dangerous in the Derby.

[bdw0617]

churhcill and oaklawn are very similar surfaces.

If I were a betting man, i would not wager on the factor in the arkansas derby, simply becuase baffert knows the horse can't be fully cranked 3 races in a row. i would expect him to back off him a little so don't be surprised if he gets beat, but he will run well.


I hate horses like this lol. because i know he's going to lose his next race, but i can't toss him becuase i know he's going to run better next time.

Your post raises interesting and fundamental questions.

Will the Baff take it easy on The Factor come the AD and save him for the KD? If he does kinda take it easy on him in his next, won't that leave him short on conditioning for the KD? If you think The Factor won't be cranked up for the AD what do you think about Soldat and the FD? Looks like McLaughlin will have Soldat fully cranked for that one. Do you think Soldat will peak in the FD instead of the KD? And what about the Mo'? He has a mile under his belt, another nine furlongs in the Wood should have him set.

Quite frankly, I can't see how they beat a fresh and dead fit Uncle Mo'. It seems to me Pletcher has this one finally figured out. Mo' looks to run his best race in the KD while Soldat and The Factor may peak too soon. Ultimately, I think The Factor will be short of energy come the Derby because he just hasn't had a break! It'll be interesting to see how game Soldat is when he and Mo' come eye to eye - looking forward to that one!

you are getting into some real advanced handicapping but this is where the money is made.

if you look at it.. you have to ask yourself what the objectives are. "Solddat is in. He needs no more money. there are no questions about his stamina. You can raise some questions about his ability to handle pressure (pace) but, that's not worth having him fully cranked up for this race. In other words, take the ovbious 1 million dollar purse off the table, there is no reason to have him peaked for this race. The exact opposite can be said for THAS. he actually does kinda need some GSE. There are questions about his distance limitations and even class.

The question you should not be asking, is if Solddat is going to be cranked or not, the question you should be asking, is can a uncranked solddat beat a cranked up THAS. sometimes they can. I don't think for instance, big brown was anywhere near full tilt in the florida derby and still ran away from the field.


I really dont' do any real derby handicapping utnil I see works. Alot of plans go sour. Plus I know enough about certain trainer tendencies to know when something isn't right. The second I saw eskendereya work 5F before the derby I knew something wasn't right.. pletch doesn't like to leave alot on the track, when he knows his horses are dead fit and ready he works them 4F. Note what super saver ran before the derby.. 4F in 48 flat.


for now just focusing on the florida derby, I don't think solddat is going to run a race that indactaive if his real talent level, but i don't think THAS is good enough to beat him anyway. The money play for me is stay thirsty or gorumet dinner.