Wonderful insight into Secretariat's routine TJ, thank you. Of course, no one these days can work that fast - I guesstimated 1:40 as appropriate for today's graded stakes stock.
Other insiders tell me exactly the opposite of you: they claim Mo has been unsound since the BC win and that Pletcher is a genius for getting him this far.
My opinion is that if you have a horse you are afraid to work 6f in 1:12, yet you fill him full of Lasix and Bute aiming to send him 9F in 1:48 or thereabouts on national TV Saturday afternoon - you are not a horseman in any sense of the word - you are a businessman.
Haskin's Derby Dozen
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bpressey wrote:Wonderful insight into Secretariat's routine TJ, thank you. Of course, no one these days can work that fast - I guesstimated 1:40 as appropriate for today's graded stakes stock.
Other insiders tell me exactly the opposite of you: they claim Mo has been unsound since the BC win and that Pletcher is a genius for getting him this far.
My opinion is that if you have a horse you are afraid to work 6f in 1:12, yet you fill him full of Lasix and Bute aiming to send him 9F in 1:48 or thereabouts on national TV Saturday afternoon - you are not a horseman in any sense of the word - you are a businessman.
Hi bp,
If they are inside his barn, they would know better, but he's looked good down here. I think he's tempered his works because he's more worried about getting through a TC campaign. But this is simply my thought and I'm most likely wrong.....I know one thing, they'll have to take off the gloves if they want him to win the Derby, no more "pretty horsey" routine after this last race:>) TJ
Well, with TP and every other trainers penchant for 2 weeks post race with no speedwork, we'll be near April 24th before the next breeze opportunity.
Then, as is Pletcher's M.O., we'll next see MO on the 30th or thereabouts for his final work. Pletcher has never, in my memory, ever breezed a Derby horse 6F, so we'll likely see more of the same in terms of breezes.
I will be there for gallops at 5am, just so he can't sneak one by me! So if Mo finds himself doing any 2min licks I should be able to report as such.
I would not want to be on this colt's back as he rubberlegs it home in the final furlong in early May, JV better make sure his insurance is paid up.
Then, as is Pletcher's M.O., we'll next see MO on the 30th or thereabouts for his final work. Pletcher has never, in my memory, ever breezed a Derby horse 6F, so we'll likely see more of the same in terms of breezes.
I will be there for gallops at 5am, just so he can't sneak one by me! So if Mo finds himself doing any 2min licks I should be able to report as such.
I would not want to be on this colt's back as he rubberlegs it home in the final furlong in early May, JV better make sure his insurance is paid up.
bpressey wrote:Well, with TP and every other trainers penchant for 2 weeks post race with no speedwork, we'll be near April 24th before the next breeze opportunity.
Then, as is Pletcher's M.O., we'll next see MO on the 30th or thereabouts for his final work. Pletcher has never, in my memory, ever breezed a Derby horse 6F, so we'll likely see more of the same in terms of breezes.
I will be there for gallops at 5am, just so he can't sneak one by me! So if Mo finds himself doing any 2min licks I should be able to report as such.
I would not want to be on this colt's back as he rubberlegs it home in the final furlong in early May, JV better make sure his insurance is paid up.
Hi bp,
Exactly right, I figure works on the 23rd and 30th....then some 2 min licks at CD.....but it would be interesting to see if he steps out of the box and works him next Saturday. Then I would know he's getting serious....another thought, at this point after his defeat, they may want to put all their eggs in one basket and change plans for a TC campaign and pick out a spot where he has his best chance in one of the TC races (I'm thinking Preakness?) to enhance his stud value and off to the breeding shed as is the unfortunate norm. TJ
bdw0617 wrote:I am going to get blasted to hell and backf for saying this, but screw it, it's not like i'm liked anyway lol. but i doubt mo is in the gates on the first saturday in may. It's just not Pletch's MO
Hi bdw,
No reason to get blasted....we're just having a conversation here and your thoughts will be answered withing the next few day. TJ
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bdw0617
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I just don't see the point.
Let me clarify what I mean... let's put the cards on the table.. todd this morning said the horse was fine. Okay, he obviously was tired.
so I am asking myself, what's the point? If he can't win the derby, if he can't win any race at a classic distance, what is the point of going on? he's won everything a really talented horse can win going up to 8F which is probably his best distance
T Pletch is a very business like person. IF what I stated is true, the horses value will never be higher than it is now. You can explain away 1 loss, but if he goes to the derby trail and gets thumped, his value goes down does it not? You skip the derby trail for what, maybe the king's bishop? he's already won 2 grade 1's. Not worth the risk. Maybe breeders cup mile.
I hope i'm wrong, he is a seriously talented horse, just not a classic horse.
And it's not like repole doesn't have a mount in the derby in stay thirsty anyway, who is better bred for the race anyway.
Let me clarify what I mean... let's put the cards on the table.. todd this morning said the horse was fine. Okay, he obviously was tired.
so I am asking myself, what's the point? If he can't win the derby, if he can't win any race at a classic distance, what is the point of going on? he's won everything a really talented horse can win going up to 8F which is probably his best distance
T Pletch is a very business like person. IF what I stated is true, the horses value will never be higher than it is now. You can explain away 1 loss, but if he goes to the derby trail and gets thumped, his value goes down does it not? You skip the derby trail for what, maybe the king's bishop? he's already won 2 grade 1's. Not worth the risk. Maybe breeders cup mile.
I hope i'm wrong, he is a seriously talented horse, just not a classic horse.
And it's not like repole doesn't have a mount in the derby in stay thirsty anyway, who is better bred for the race anyway.
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Whirlaway
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bpressey,
Back in February, I asked what made Comma to the Top different from others and you replied:
“Why is Comma different than others?”
He has more races and works in him at 12sec/f pace during the most formative year for a thoroughbred (at 2) than any other 3 contenders combined. If those were all on dirt, I would put my house on him at the current futures price of 25-1. He was 250-1 at one point on the futures board.
10 times the race specific furlongs in his young career gives him 10 times the chances to recover/remodel bones and come out stronger. But dirt is better for bone and tendon development than a more forgiving surface, it has been proven – so that is rightfully a concern. Nevertheless, that foundation should lessen his chances of a bow, not eliminate, but lessen.
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Considering what you have written, it seems a bit odd Comma to the Top will not make it to the Kentucky Derby. What are your thoughts as to the why of his early exit, what are your thoughts on his preparation, what are your thoughts on his Derby Campaign and what if anything would you have changed.
Back in February, I asked what made Comma to the Top different from others and you replied:
“Why is Comma different than others?”
He has more races and works in him at 12sec/f pace during the most formative year for a thoroughbred (at 2) than any other 3 contenders combined. If those were all on dirt, I would put my house on him at the current futures price of 25-1. He was 250-1 at one point on the futures board.
10 times the race specific furlongs in his young career gives him 10 times the chances to recover/remodel bones and come out stronger. But dirt is better for bone and tendon development than a more forgiving surface, it has been proven – so that is rightfully a concern. Nevertheless, that foundation should lessen his chances of a bow, not eliminate, but lessen.
~
Considering what you have written, it seems a bit odd Comma to the Top will not make it to the Kentucky Derby. What are your thoughts as to the why of his early exit, what are your thoughts on his preparation, what are your thoughts on his Derby Campaign and what if anything would you have changed.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
I'll still take what Comma to the Top accomplished over Mo, Soldat, To Honor and Serve, and many other high priced stock have done to this point in their careers. That being said, in retrospect I would have moved to the dirt earlier in his preparation - as well as taken a few months off in the wintertime. As the months rolled on, it seemed he no longer was breezing those longer distances, perhaps he was worn out.
But it certainly may not have made any difference. My point would be that the training/racing of Comma was done with the idea of maximizing his potential, rather than following a carbon copy route to the big race and letting genetics rule the day.
In the hands of a supertrainer, Comma would still be on the Derby trail. Rare is the guy like Peter Miller who puts his horse ahead of his ego. I'd prefer a break after a 2nd in the SA Derby instead of a 12th in the Ky Derby.
Selfishly, I wanted him in the big race because it would have been interesting to see him and his 15 starts in the PPs compared to all the others with 4-5 starts under their belts. If he would have won, would everyone emulate that prep, or ignored it and chalked it up to luck?
In order to better learn about my job, I would be in favor of such a horse getting some attention to see if that changed anything going forward.
But it certainly may not have made any difference. My point would be that the training/racing of Comma was done with the idea of maximizing his potential, rather than following a carbon copy route to the big race and letting genetics rule the day.
In the hands of a supertrainer, Comma would still be on the Derby trail. Rare is the guy like Peter Miller who puts his horse ahead of his ego. I'd prefer a break after a 2nd in the SA Derby instead of a 12th in the Ky Derby.
Selfishly, I wanted him in the big race because it would have been interesting to see him and his 15 starts in the PPs compared to all the others with 4-5 starts under their belts. If he would have won, would everyone emulate that prep, or ignored it and chalked it up to luck?
In order to better learn about my job, I would be in favor of such a horse getting some attention to see if that changed anything going forward.
i think you were right on with your comments regarding comma to the top....i think they just squeezed the lemon dry so to speak...still a huge effort in the santa anita derby...front wraps and all 
A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
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Whirlaway
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NO doubt Comma to the Top has done well. I understand he was a 20k claimer and at this point he has earned over 700K. I would think the owners are jumping for joy all the way to the bank and as a gelding he will likely be racing for many more years. I don't know, but to have done all that he did and not make it to the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby has to leave the connections with a hollow feeling . . .
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He raced eight times at two. Do you think he could have sustained his campaign if he ran most of those races on dirt? Isn't it more likely he ran as many races as he did because the all weather surfaces are less hazardous?
He won't be running in the Derby and some may argue his tough campaign may have made him weaker instead of stronger. As you wrote, "As the months rolled on, it seemed he no longer was breezing those longer distances, perhaps he was worn out." Was he over trained and over raced? Considering he did not make it to the Derby is it more likely other trainers will not follow his campaign?
He did take almost two months off between the Cash Call and the El Camino. Do you think this sufficient time off?
How do you think he would have handled the ten furlongs and nineteen competitors in the Kentucky Derby? Will he have maximized his potential as a three-year-old without running in the Kentucky Derby?
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He raced eight times at two. Do you think he could have sustained his campaign if he ran most of those races on dirt? Isn't it more likely he ran as many races as he did because the all weather surfaces are less hazardous?
He won't be running in the Derby and some may argue his tough campaign may have made him weaker instead of stronger. As you wrote, "As the months rolled on, it seemed he no longer was breezing those longer distances, perhaps he was worn out." Was he over trained and over raced? Considering he did not make it to the Derby is it more likely other trainers will not follow his campaign?
He did take almost two months off between the Cash Call and the El Camino. Do you think this sufficient time off?
How do you think he would have handled the ten furlongs and nineteen competitors in the Kentucky Derby? Will he have maximized his potential as a three-year-old without running in the Kentucky Derby?
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
now his trainer is doing an about face in regards to the K.B....as reported in the daily racing form.......what happened to the rest for a few months that the trainer stated he was going to get after the S.A. derby?....trainer said that with the way uncle mo ran that it opens things up....who the freak is he kidding? you can say derby fever ......and you would be right ...this poor horse needs a rest ..its obvious to all but his connections....wraps and all...why not just shoot the poor bastard and be done with it 
...too too many starts...what is it with todays trainers? too few starts.. too many starts...greed and ego..at the sake of the horse....if he does run he will finish up the track.
...this poor horse needs a rest ..its obvious to all but his connections....wraps and all...why not just shoot the poor bastard and be done with it ...too too many starts...what is it with todays trainers? too few starts.. too many starts...greed and ego..at the sake of the horse....if he does run he will finish up the track.A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
His dirt Beyers have continued to improve over the last 3 losses, and let's face it - no colts want 1.25 miles in May, they will all be rubber-legging it home the final furlong. As evidenced Saturday, he has quite a bit of fight in him.
Someone else made the point on here: those first 10-11 starts on synthetic would not have taken as much out of him as if they were on dirt.
His connections changed their tune a bit when they woke up Sunday morning and expected to find Comma lying in the stall, but he was bouncing around like a rubber ball. Meanwhile, across the US after the Wood, Graham Motion finds Uncle Toby lying in his stall like he was shot dead. Who needs a break now?
Gimme 15 starts over 4 any day of the week.
Running a mile and an eighth in 1:49 or so is not always the same. If one horse takes 7 days to get his weight back and another does so in 2 - who is more fit for the task?
Someone else made the point on here: those first 10-11 starts on synthetic would not have taken as much out of him as if they were on dirt.
His connections changed their tune a bit when they woke up Sunday morning and expected to find Comma lying in the stall, but he was bouncing around like a rubber ball. Meanwhile, across the US after the Wood, Graham Motion finds Uncle Toby lying in his stall like he was shot dead. Who needs a break now?
Gimme 15 starts over 4 any day of the week.
Running a mile and an eighth in 1:49 or so is not always the same. If one horse takes 7 days to get his weight back and another does so in 2 - who is more fit for the task?