Hi
I have to go with Animal Kingdom again. He seems to be in top form right now.
I will bet him to win, and play a $1 superfecta as follows:
11 over 4-9-14 over 4-9-14 over 1-4-9-10-14 ($18)
Good luck to all.
Bill
Preakness pick
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Preakness pick
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Dialed In does concern me, and it wouldn't be a surprise to me if he won. I just think that Animal Kingdom is at the top of his game right now, and I think there is even more in the tank. I may regret relegating Dialed In to fourth place in my super. I just might throw in a four horse superfecta box with Animal Kingdom, Mucho Macho Man, Dialed In, and Mr. Commons.
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
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Shammy Davis
- Chef de Race: Classic
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- Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:23 am
http://thoroedge.wordpress.com/
Everyone has an educated opinion. If you read down you'll see what his opinion was for the derby. We all can't be right.
Everyone has an educated opinion. If you read down you'll see what his opinion was for the derby. We all can't be right.
Hi Bill, would you mind stating your case for Flashpoint? I intend to stick w/AK again (had the Derby tri!), but I'm having a hard time with the "new shooters". Also, any thoughts on Norman Ab-whatever?
My stress over Preakness handicapping is at least doubled by the fact that I'm having surgery on Fri., and will be sending my bet with my S O
My stress over Preakness handicapping is at least doubled by the fact that I'm having surgery on Fri., and will be sending my bet with my S O
"Most people hate the taste of beer to begin with. It is, however, a prejudice that many people have been able to overcome."-Winston Churchill
Now that we have the morning line odds, here’s something to consider.
In the past 27 runnings of the Preakness, horses with morning line odds of 9-1 & higher are 1 of 178 (0.6%). That’s a pretty hefty sample of failures, regardless of how good they may have looked coming into the race. The Derby horses within this group were 1 of 50, with Louis Quatorze being the sole winner. Non-Derby runners at 9-1 & higher were 0 for 128. {For 2011, I’d like to like Norman A, but he’s an example of this kind of Preakness entrant.}
Horses at 2-1 & lower are 7 of 24 (29.2%).
Horses between 5-2 and 8-1 are 19 of 82 (23.2%).
If you rank the morning lines, runners in the top 3 are 20 of 85 (23.5%).
There aren’t 91 horses in this sample since entries with identical ML odds are labeled equally, so when you have (as an example) a favorite at 5-2 with the second choice at 9-2 followed by two @ 6-1, I counted both the 6-1s as '3rd choice'.
ML ranked 4th or 5th are 7 of 60 (11.7%).
Ranked 6th or lower are 0 for 139.
For 2011, this points to:
Animal Kingdom (#11), Dialed In (#10), and Mucho Macho Man (#9) in the Top 3 group, with Dance City and Shackelford in the next group.
I like to play longshots as much as the next guy, but history suggests that’s a slow road to poverty, as far as the Preakness is concerned. I think the smart wager this year would be Animal Kingdom to W&P.
It’s surprising how much some past Derby winners have paid (W&P) in the Preakness:
Charismatic $26.40
War Emblem $13.60
Silver Charm $12.20
Alysheba $10.60
Real Quiet $10.60
Funny Cide $10.40
Sunday Silence $9.20
Smarty Jones $6.40
FWIW
In the past 27 runnings of the Preakness, horses with morning line odds of 9-1 & higher are 1 of 178 (0.6%). That’s a pretty hefty sample of failures, regardless of how good they may have looked coming into the race. The Derby horses within this group were 1 of 50, with Louis Quatorze being the sole winner. Non-Derby runners at 9-1 & higher were 0 for 128. {For 2011, I’d like to like Norman A, but he’s an example of this kind of Preakness entrant.}
Horses at 2-1 & lower are 7 of 24 (29.2%).
Horses between 5-2 and 8-1 are 19 of 82 (23.2%).
If you rank the morning lines, runners in the top 3 are 20 of 85 (23.5%).
There aren’t 91 horses in this sample since entries with identical ML odds are labeled equally, so when you have (as an example) a favorite at 5-2 with the second choice at 9-2 followed by two @ 6-1, I counted both the 6-1s as '3rd choice'.
ML ranked 4th or 5th are 7 of 60 (11.7%).
Ranked 6th or lower are 0 for 139.
For 2011, this points to:
Animal Kingdom (#11), Dialed In (#10), and Mucho Macho Man (#9) in the Top 3 group, with Dance City and Shackelford in the next group.
I like to play longshots as much as the next guy, but history suggests that’s a slow road to poverty, as far as the Preakness is concerned. I think the smart wager this year would be Animal Kingdom to W&P.
It’s surprising how much some past Derby winners have paid (W&P) in the Preakness:
Charismatic $26.40
War Emblem $13.60
Silver Charm $12.20
Alysheba $10.60
Real Quiet $10.60
Funny Cide $10.40
Sunday Silence $9.20
Smarty Jones $6.40
FWIW
Preakness
Animal Kingdom won me a nice little chunk of dog food money in the KD 
, But not worth n=betting to win this time with what his odds are now, anyways, maybe they will go up before post time. I think the win $$ is on Sway Away this time. He look sgreat, has had a little break. I will still do a couple exotics, but Im putting all the win $$ on sway Away, with maybe a little on Astrology as well
, But not worth n=betting to win this time with what his odds are now, anyways, maybe they will go up before post time. I think the win $$ is on Sway Away this time. He look sgreat, has had a little break. I will still do a couple exotics, but Im putting all the win $$ on sway Away, with maybe a little on Astrology as well-
Shammy Davis
- Chef de Race: Classic
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- Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:23 am
Bpressey wrote:
No, I wasn't one of those geniuses. You can search high and low from beginning to end on this website and you won't find me touting any racehorse, TC or not. I love to place a bet but I'm "smart" enough to keep my mouth shut when it comes to handicapping horses. I'm not very good at it and I'm first to be surprised if my play wins.
If you didn't want to get quoted, you shouldn't have posted it. Didn't mean to hurt your feelings.
Thanks Shammy, were you one of the geniuses touting Uncle Mo as the next Seattle Slew back in February?
No, I wasn't one of those geniuses. You can search high and low from beginning to end on this website and you won't find me touting any racehorse, TC or not. I love to place a bet but I'm "smart" enough to keep my mouth shut when it comes to handicapping horses. I'm not very good at it and I'm first to be surprised if my play wins.
If you didn't want to get quoted, you shouldn't have posted it. Didn't mean to hurt your feelings.
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Hi Toadie
I like the switch to Wesley Ward for Flashpoint. I think this guy bounced last time, was compromised by his post position and was carried very wide on the first turn. For the Preakness, he has drawn inside of Shackleford, and should be able to get a better position early on. His pedigree doesn't necessarily scream distance, but Secretariat along the damline should help. He is training like a monster. I don't think he can beat AK, but he should be around for a piece of the pie. Of the other new shooters, I think Mr. Commons has the best upside.
Good luck.
Bill
I like the switch to Wesley Ward for Flashpoint. I think this guy bounced last time, was compromised by his post position and was carried very wide on the first turn. For the Preakness, he has drawn inside of Shackleford, and should be able to get a better position early on. His pedigree doesn't necessarily scream distance, but Secretariat along the damline should help. He is training like a monster. I don't think he can beat AK, but he should be around for a piece of the pie. Of the other new shooters, I think Mr. Commons has the best upside.
Good luck.
Bill
Last edited by Bill from WA on Thu May 19, 2011 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
Sorry Shammy, no feelings hurt on this end, but you are roughly the 100th person to ridicule me for my outlook - even though all the Uncle Mo lovers get a free pass. I simply blew up, my apologies. But is it really fair for you to roast me when you never risk an opinion of your own for us to quote?
You are absolutely correct to keep your mouth shut, I would do so too if I wasn't trying to re-institute the conditioning regimens of old. 99% of people are against me - I suppose that gets old after a few years.
I mean do we really want Animal Kingdom and his like to succeed?
Would you enjoy the sport more if horses came into the Derby with 2 lifetime starts and retired after earning their black type?
And you never even saw them in public until age 3 to begin with?
'Cause that is where this is all headed until someone like a Comma to the Top makes a splash on the big days.
You are absolutely correct to keep your mouth shut, I would do so too if I wasn't trying to re-institute the conditioning regimens of old. 99% of people are against me - I suppose that gets old after a few years.
I mean do we really want Animal Kingdom and his like to succeed?
Would you enjoy the sport more if horses came into the Derby with 2 lifetime starts and retired after earning their black type?
And you never even saw them in public until age 3 to begin with?
'Cause that is where this is all headed until someone like a Comma to the Top makes a splash on the big days.
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Shammy Davis
- Chef de Race: Classic
- Posts: 4451
- Joined: Sat Oct 02, 2004 8:23 am
Bpressey: You had two divergent points of view on the same page which I found interesting. I guess the point was that this crop of colts is very interesting and very hard to handicap. You and Bill from WA are looking at apples and oranges also and you go about handicapping differently.
As far as wanting AK not to win. I don't think if he were to win it would detract from the other TC winners.
If I were you though and I had differences of opinion with myself, I think I'd post them to different pages. I enjoy your blog.
As far as wanting AK not to win. I don't think if he were to win it would detract from the other TC winners.
If I were you though and I had differences of opinion with myself, I think I'd post them to different pages. I enjoy your blog.
Shammy: I often contradict myself and make no sense, just ask my wife. I don't know which instances you are referring to - or I would furiously attempt to cover my tracks. I'd be happy to comment if you can provide details?
And thanks for reading the blog, I am constantly shocked that anyone actually reads my ramblings. Unfortunately I will probably be wrong 9/10 times as most horses these days are not following my 'rules'.
Any horse that I advise on completes every workout with a heart rate/GPS monitor - and that data is analyzed, with trainer input, before deciding next steps. Some gallop the traditional 2miles, some go 4. Some never get off the treadmill due to other issues.
Obviously none of mine are on the TC trail, so I am guessing as to what is going on in the mornings in every instance.
And thanks for reading the blog, I am constantly shocked that anyone actually reads my ramblings. Unfortunately I will probably be wrong 9/10 times as most horses these days are not following my 'rules'.
Any horse that I advise on completes every workout with a heart rate/GPS monitor - and that data is analyzed, with trainer input, before deciding next steps. Some gallop the traditional 2miles, some go 4. Some never get off the treadmill due to other issues.
Obviously none of mine are on the TC trail, so I am guessing as to what is going on in the mornings in every instance.