Preakness pick

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Thu May 19, 2011 1:06 pm

oblgiated to pick sway away. i'm all in now can't go back.

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Thu May 19, 2011 1:50 pm

Sway Away seems to be the "buzz" horse right now. I may live to regret not including him, but I have a feeling there might be a further regression in form. He does have a nice pedigree to get a distance of ground. Better than many in the field.
If he gets the job done, my congratulations and a tip of my hat.
Good luck.

Bill

DDT · Postby **DDT** » Thu May 19, 2011 3:15 pm

It is very hard not to like the Derby winner, Animal Kingdom, all he has to do is repeat his Derby run and he should win this, however, if the pace is as fast as I think it will be, then I give Dialed In a chance if he can stay in touch with the field early. Mucho Macho Man might be sitting on a good one. I would say the tri looks like Animal Kingdom, Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man.

Safe trip and good luck to all.

DDT

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Thu May 19, 2011 3:28 pm

I agree with your appraisal DDT. Barry Irwin says that Animal Kingdom is doing unbelievably well. Just going about his business like a consumate professional. I expect another big run.

Bill

Georgerz · Postby **Georgerz** » Thu May 19, 2011 3:56 pm

I like Animal Kingdom and the AP Indy colt, and MMM. I hope I'm not jixing them.

toadie · Postby **toadie** » Thu May 19, 2011 7:29 pm

Thx for the info. Bill. Regarding Sway Away, I was really high on him the 1st time I saw him, but now he's let me down twice so I may toss him. Seems like whenever I do that though, they turn around and run a big one :roll:

Can't remember, has Gomez ridden him b4?

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Thu May 19, 2011 8:06 pm

Hi Toadie

Gomez has been on him twice before, a 2nd in the San Vicente (7f on a wet/fast track), and a 6th in the Rebel Stakes.

Bill

Terrapin Flyer · Postby **Terrapin Flyer** » Thu May 19, 2011 8:51 pm

bpressey wrote:

Let’s see, Toby ran a fast 9F for the first time in his young life just 3 weeks ago, and needed a spatula to scrape himself off his stall floor the next morning, just like a fried egg.

Unless you were there and saw the horse in his stall that is a pretty Fin bold statement and pretty much throws the credibility about anything you write out the window. Talking crap about someone elses horse thats 400 miles away from you without ever seeing that horse is pretty bush league and as classless as you can get. If you want to make statements like that about someones horse/s you better be able to back it up with facts, and since you can't you are bordering on slander. Your trash handicapping is good for a laugh, but its like watching Tommy Boy 10 times in a row, after a while you know whats coming next and it loses its humor. It's no different than betting the nickle claimer with the most starts on the year at Charles Town every night.

Whirlaway · Postby **Whirlaway** » Thu May 19, 2011 9:00 pm

Track stats indicate a 90% speed bias, 70% of the winners going early, 24% winning from the rail with only 10% coming off the pace. If the track holds, doesn't bode well for the closers. I figure they'll run a pretty fast clip, speed holding will force the closers to stay tight - if the closers stay tight, they'll lose their kick.

Animal Kingdom should be tough, gets a drop in distance and a drop in class - lethal combination - figure he is too far back. MuchoMachoMan, long legs and all, showed a blistering work on the Belmont tr.t - he is growing up and was my first choice but I'll go against these two, play the bias, take fifteen to one and Astrology.

bpressey · Postby **bpressey** » Fri May 20, 2011 5:11 am

Do your homework Terrapin, instead of trying to take someone else down:

"After the Wood Memorial, trainer Graham Motion said that Toby's Corner came out of the Wood a bit tired – “he's been laying down all morning. .."

The comment was in about 20 different news sources the few days following the Wood. But then again, I don't expect you to believe me given your obvious agenda.

TJ · Postby TJ » Fri May 20, 2011 8:22 am

Updated/edited, 5/21 9AM...This is probably one of the toughest group of 3YO's to handicap in some time. We have a bunch of top 3 YO's that have yet to reach a triple digit beyer and the best of the Derby field are running back on 2 weeks rest....creating a possible bounce scenario. The Derby didn't really do much to make handicapping this Preakness any easier, as the Derby was such a slow paced race.....it was actually a perfect pace scenario for the winner as it was like the pace in a European turf race. If the Preakness has a serious pace and with the likes of Flashpoint, Shakleford and Dance City in the gate....it should be, this race may set up for a closer. With this in mind I have to choose Dialed In who ran the 2nd fastest closing 1/2 mile of all Kentucky Derby's, yet his best race came at 1 turn and his number's are not that impressive. Yet, I'll take a shot to buck the track bias and see if Dialed In can get up in the final strides. I think Mucho Macho man will turn the tables on Animal Kingdom at the wire for 2nd. If I decide to dabble I will spread out, I'll use Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man on top over Animal Kingdom and a few longshots who are coming into this race with decent numbers and rest...therefore could have a chance for a strong forward move today.....Sway Away, Astrology, Dance City and Flashpoint. Good Luck to all. TJ

Shergar · Postby **Shergar** » Fri May 20, 2011 9:51 am

endspurt stables · Postby **endspurt stables** » Fri May 20, 2011 9:59 am

I'll take Dance City for the win. I will go dancing to the windows come preakness day. If Sway Away wins I will dance to the nearest bridge and jump off as he is a one turn sprinter!

erins isle · Postby **erins isle** » Fri May 20, 2011 10:29 am

If I would take a bet, I would go for Animal Kingdom. I do hope he'll win tomorrow. I love his pedigree as a European.
Did you all see the trainingsvideo btw?
I have rarely seen a horse behaving so relaxed as he was.

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Fri May 20, 2011 1:42 pm

Terrapin Flyer wrote:

bpressey wrote:
Quote:
Let’s see, Toby ran a fast 9F for the first time in his young life just 3 weeks ago, and needed a spatula to scrape himself off his stall floor the next morning, just like a fried egg.

Unless you were there and saw the horse in his stall that is a pretty Fin bold statement and pretty much throws the credibility about anything you write out the window. Talking crap about someone elses horse thats 400 miles away from you without ever seeing that horse is pretty bush league and as classless as you can get. If you want to make statements like that about someones horse/s you better be able to back it up with facts, and since you can't you are bordering on slander. Your trash handicapping is good for a laugh, but its like watching Tommy Boy 10 times in a row, after a while you know whats coming next and it loses its humor. It's no different than betting the nickle claimer with the most starts on the year at Charles Town every night.

Terrapin, I agree 100% It is one thing for the trainer to say his horse is "a bit tired" and “he's been laying down all morning. .." Then spin:
>>needed a spatula to scrape himself off his stall floor the next morning, just like a fried egg.<<

That is just awful.