Yes Thunder Gulch was
I dont think this race today translates to the dirt. I think he will be a nice turf horse.
This is where the polytrack is going to create a problem. You just cannot assess, or translate a horses form Poly to dirt. There was nothing at all in that field, he won by default
As for the fast fractions... they have been speeding the track up all week in anticipation for Lanes End day. Infact they had 2 breakdown last night because of all the tinkering they did with it. That track is not the same when they try to juice it, it really creates a lot of problems. It was playing nothing but speed, and it wasnt playing as kind as many would like to think. I know a few came back to the recieving barn bad, and the breakdowns I have mentioned. We had 2 come back bad this week from TWP who will never run again... The human element with that track is incredible, and the people taking care of it dont have a clue what they are doing.
How About Hard Spun Now?
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geowarrior
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I saw Hard Spun on T.V. at the Lecomte Stakes, he was racing against, among others, my partnership horse Citi Smoke who is also a May foal. Compared to Smokie, Hard Spun is a big bruiser. Seeing them together convinced me that not all May foals are necessarily at a disadvantage. Different horses develop at different rates. If Hard Spun doesn't win the Derby it won't be because he is a May foal, IMO.
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MidwestTrainer
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Foggytrip wrote:Yes Thunder Gulch was
I dont think this race today translates to the dirt. I think he will be a nice turf horse.
This is where the polytrack is going to create a problem. You just cannot assess, or translate a horses form Poly to dirt. There was nothing at all in that field, he won by default
As for the fast fractions... they have been speeding the track up all week in anticipation for Lanes End day. Infact they had 2 breakdown last night because of all the tinkering they did with it. That track is not the same when they try to juice it, it really creates a lot of problems. It was playing nothing but speed, and it wasnt playing as kind as many would like to think. I know a few came back to the recieving barn bad, and the breakdowns I have mentioned. We had 2 come back bad this week from TWP who will never run again... The human element with that track is incredible, and the people taking care of it dont have a clue what they are doing.
It's disgusting isn't it. The ONLY point of poly was to try and prevent the human urge to speed the track up and now that they have figured out how to speed it up, the breakdowns start again.
Foggytrip wrote:...This is where the polytrack is going to create a problem. You just cannot assess, or translate a horses form Poly to dirt. There was nothing at all in that field, he won by default....
I totally agree. He has not seen the kind of competition yet that the first Saturday in May will draw.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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Rokeby Forever
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Now, hold on a minute!
Hard Spun has won on the dirt. He's not a Bulgravia that's won only on Polytrack.
And as far as Madeline writing, "He has not seen the kind of competition yet that the first Saturday in May will draw," that may well be true, but who has this year? Nothing says that the Fountain Of Youth bunch want 1 1/4 mile, the NY bunch hasn't been impressive, Great Hunter is a kingpin in California but he hasn't faced Grade 1 types in California this year, Street Sense has had only one race in the last 4 1/2 months and beat the winner of the Sam Davis Stakes (yawn), and Circular Quay isn't facing the top colts right now, either. The SA Derby looks to be so weak this year that a filly, Rags To Riches, might be the favorite, and Curlin, with only 2 career starts, has suddenly emerged as a possible Derby contender. This year's Derby is pretty wide open, IMO.
So, can't Madeline's comment about Hard Spun's competition apply to a lot of colts right now?
Hard Spun has won on the dirt. He's not a Bulgravia that's won only on Polytrack.
And as far as Madeline writing, "He has not seen the kind of competition yet that the first Saturday in May will draw," that may well be true, but who has this year? Nothing says that the Fountain Of Youth bunch want 1 1/4 mile, the NY bunch hasn't been impressive, Great Hunter is a kingpin in California but he hasn't faced Grade 1 types in California this year, Street Sense has had only one race in the last 4 1/2 months and beat the winner of the Sam Davis Stakes (yawn), and Circular Quay isn't facing the top colts right now, either. The SA Derby looks to be so weak this year that a filly, Rags To Riches, might be the favorite, and Curlin, with only 2 career starts, has suddenly emerged as a possible Derby contender. This year's Derby is pretty wide open, IMO.
So, can't Madeline's comment about Hard Spun's competition apply to a lot of colts right now?
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
Oh gosh.. I'm a chef and Rokeby finally corrected the spelling of my name! Sorry, Roke, that's how it appears on my birth certificate and my mother passed away nine years ago so you can't even correct her.
Street Sense and Any Given Saturday ran a very strong race in the Tampa Bay Derby and set a new track record on a relatively slow surface. In fact it looked like they had one race and the group behind them had another.
I agree that the Derby field looks pretty open right now. But the Lane's End didn't really have much in the way of competition for Hard Spun and they had juiced the track. The Bluegrass hopefully will shape up to be a more telling competition (if Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and Great Hunter all show up). If Hard Spun's connections had wanted to see how good he was (vs. collect a pretty sure paycheck against a lesser crowd in the Lane's End) they would have waited. The $300K paycheck was more important because he NEEDS the earnings. I'm not surprised at all that he won, I'm just surprised that he only won by three lengths, if he really is a Derby contender.
I plan on heading over to Keeneland for the Bluegrass.. anyone else going?
Street Sense and Any Given Saturday ran a very strong race in the Tampa Bay Derby and set a new track record on a relatively slow surface. In fact it looked like they had one race and the group behind them had another.
I agree that the Derby field looks pretty open right now. But the Lane's End didn't really have much in the way of competition for Hard Spun and they had juiced the track. The Bluegrass hopefully will shape up to be a more telling competition (if Street Sense, Any Given Saturday and Great Hunter all show up). If Hard Spun's connections had wanted to see how good he was (vs. collect a pretty sure paycheck against a lesser crowd in the Lane's End) they would have waited. The $300K paycheck was more important because he NEEDS the earnings. I'm not surprised at all that he won, I'm just surprised that he only won by three lengths, if he really is a Derby contender.
I plan on heading over to Keeneland for the Bluegrass.. anyone else going?
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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Rokeby Forever
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Hiya Madelyn,
OOPS!!! That was actually a spelling error on my part - I once knew a gal named Madeline and I typed the name that way without thinking. Many apologies if I offended.
The Bluegrass Stakes figures to be the #1 prep this spring if the cast of characters show, but I don't like that it's on Polytrack, either. Grass horses don't prep on Astroturf, so I don't see why dirt horses prep on a surface other than dirt. It's going to remain a mess for a while because I'm not so sure how quickly Churchill Downs wants to convert to a new surface.
I think the key here is the word "Prep." I can agree with your assessment that Hard Spun should have beaten that field by a wider margin, but it's only March 24...do you want a colt running a peak race this early? By winning the race by only 3 lengths, one can argue that the race didn't take anything out of him, and he'll be a better horse in the Bluegrass because of it.
OOPS!!! That was actually a spelling error on my part - I once knew a gal named Madeline and I typed the name that way without thinking. Many apologies if I offended.
The Bluegrass Stakes figures to be the #1 prep this spring if the cast of characters show, but I don't like that it's on Polytrack, either. Grass horses don't prep on Astroturf, so I don't see why dirt horses prep on a surface other than dirt. It's going to remain a mess for a while because I'm not so sure how quickly Churchill Downs wants to convert to a new surface.
I think the key here is the word "Prep." I can agree with your assessment that Hard Spun should have beaten that field by a wider margin, but it's only March 24...do you want a colt running a peak race this early? By winning the race by only 3 lengths, one can argue that the race didn't take anything out of him, and he'll be a better horse in the Bluegrass because of it.
About the name thing, just kidding.
Do you really think they will push Hard Spun against that crowd of characters a mere 21 days after the Lane's End? It is then just three weeks till the Derby. Street Sense also ran on the dirt, and won the BC Juvies smokin'. So he might like Churchill. That race didn't set up at all for him, wide trip, etc., but he managed to make them look slo-mo as he rocketed by. He got the Tampa Bay Derby in the deep sand track there. He might not like Polytrack, which would open up the Bluegrass. But he did well at Churchill, and it takes a very fit horse to get a track record at Tampa Bay.
This is why I like this board. We can discuss these things (hopefully) civilly and without being ridiculed.
Do you really think they will push Hard Spun against that crowd of characters a mere 21 days after the Lane's End? It is then just three weeks till the Derby. Street Sense also ran on the dirt, and won the BC Juvies smokin'. So he might like Churchill. That race didn't set up at all for him, wide trip, etc., but he managed to make them look slo-mo as he rocketed by. He got the Tampa Bay Derby in the deep sand track there. He might not like Polytrack, which would open up the Bluegrass. But he did well at Churchill, and it takes a very fit horse to get a track record at Tampa Bay.
This is why I like this board. We can discuss these things (hopefully) civilly and without being ridiculed.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
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Rokeby Forever
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I don't think Hard Spun needs to run a hard race in the Bluegrass - he now has the earnings to get into the KY Derby. I think how he'll perform is all a matter of what the connections think will set him up best for the KY Derby.
Street Sense lost on Polytrack to horses he demolished in the BC Juvie, so I guess the question to be answered is: Is Street Sense a better horse now than he was was when he lost on Polytrack?
Street Sense must like Polytrack, because I really don't think it makes sense for Mr Nafzger to prep Street Sense on a surface he doesn't like, especially since it'll be one of only two preps that he'll have. If Street Sense gets nothing out of the Bluegrass, how is he supposed to get fit enough to run 1 1/4 mile only 3 weeks later?
Street Sense lost on Polytrack to horses he demolished in the BC Juvie, so I guess the question to be answered is: Is Street Sense a better horse now than he was was when he lost on Polytrack?
Street Sense must like Polytrack, because I really don't think it makes sense for Mr Nafzger to prep Street Sense on a surface he doesn't like, especially since it'll be one of only two preps that he'll have. If Street Sense gets nothing out of the Bluegrass, how is he supposed to get fit enough to run 1 1/4 mile only 3 weeks later?
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Stevie Belmont
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jagger wrote:Hi Madelyn!
I would LOVE to go to the TBG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I will start looking for some inside seating. I'll be in touch! Hugs!
It's a DATE!! Maybe my Street Cry baby will be on the ground by then -- you guys could camp here in my guest room.
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
Rokeby Forever wrote:Now, hold on a minute!
Hard Spun has won on the dirt. He's not a Bulgravia that's won only on Polytrack.
And as far as Madeline writing, "He has not seen the kind of competition yet that the first Saturday in May will draw," that may well be true, but who has this year? Nothing says that the Fountain Of Youth bunch want 1 1/4 mile, the NY bunch hasn't been impressive, Great Hunter is a kingpin in California but he hasn't faced Grade 1 types in California this year, Street Sense has had only one race in the last 4 1/2 months and beat the winner of the Sam Davis Stakes (yawn), and Circular Quay isn't facing the top colts right now, either. The SA Derby looks to be so weak this year that a filly, Rags To Riches, might be the favorite, and Curlin, with only 2 career starts, has suddenly emerged as a possible Derby contender. This year's Derby is pretty wide open, IMO.
So, can't Madeline's comment about Hard Spun's competition apply to a lot of colts right now?
on a earlier thread i touted grear hunter as my derby choice...now i have a tough choice....because HARD SPUN looks and acts the part of a serious contender...never mind what he ran on or who he beat...he did it the right way ...he dominated. plain and simple. so i will be watching my top two choices very close in the comming weeks.
A great man cannot help himself," "He can see things that other men cannot see themselves, and his greatness lies in doing whatever is necessary to make his vision real
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geowarrior
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Hard Spun's connections seemed quite certain that they wanted to go up against Street Sense in the Bluegrass, so I do think he'll run. While I agree with Rokeby that he wants the longer distance, I was a little concerned about the Polytrack. But on the whole I think that Hard Spun is likely one of those horses that can win on any surface. However, the fields for both the Lecomte and the Lane's End weren't stellar, and Hard Spun did show he is vulnerable when losing the Southwest. So I would consider his form as not being solid.
On the other hand, that was a nice win by Dominican yesterday in the Rushaway. Dominican came 6 lengths or so behind Tiz Wonderful and Any Given Saturday in a race last year. He's clearly a good horse, although still considered to be immature. We all know who Street Sense beat in the B.C. Juvenile, and Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Teuflesberg and King of the Roxy all have stakes wins this year. Thus I believe that Street Sense and Any Given Saturday are the two horses for which the form has clearly been solidified by their competitors. I like Hard Spun though, I like his looks and his pedigree, and most of his performances thus far. Right now I like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday, with Great Hunter and Hard Spun in there with a shot.
On the other hand, that was a nice win by Dominican yesterday in the Rushaway. Dominican came 6 lengths or so behind Tiz Wonderful and Any Given Saturday in a race last year. He's clearly a good horse, although still considered to be immature. We all know who Street Sense beat in the B.C. Juvenile, and Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Teuflesberg and King of the Roxy all have stakes wins this year. Thus I believe that Street Sense and Any Given Saturday are the two horses for which the form has clearly been solidified by their competitors. I like Hard Spun though, I like his looks and his pedigree, and most of his performances thus far. Right now I like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday, with Great Hunter and Hard Spun in there with a shot.