Explanation For Todd Pletcher's Wholesale Failure?

[Rokeby Forever]

There's no speed in Street Sense's immediate pedigree, and he came from 19th to win the KY Derby. Horses like Real Quiet, Vicar, Menifee, and other big Derby closers haven't exactly fared well as sires. Giacomo's $12,500 fee will probably be $5,000 in five years. Grindstone is an Unbridled and he's standing for $3,500. Did Silver Charm fare well? How about Captain Bodgit?

[horsenuts]

Here are a couple of speculative and/or conspiracy theories posted elsewhere on the web.

After Pletcher's dismal day, I'm asking the same question I was asking weeks ago: Are TAP's big-race failures a product of the fact that Churchill's surveillance is good enough to keep things on a more even playing field?

I know, I know -- they all passed the EPO tests given a few days ago. But perhaps they had fair warning, or perhaps EPO isn't where the magic is. I'm still suspicious....

Ever wonder how Todd P can be first or second in every Derby prep for over a year, run FIVE runners in the Derby, and not get a call with any of them? Same with the BC. Whatever drug-testing measures CD used are probably very effective

Ever wonder why Todd P gets 45 days at his discretion , and Steve A gets 6 months starting immediately? Ever wonder if having high profile big $$ owners makes a difference?

People need to learn to read a racing form. SS was THE obvious horse if he ran his race. At CD's SS is a SUPERIOR horse as he proved in the BCJ and once again on Derby Day. Now, at other tracks he has yet to show he is the peer of his age group. He'll get another chance at Pimlico but I suspect he'll struggle just as he has at the other tracks. Of course his "struggle" may be good enough to win all depending on who else fires a big race.



As for Todd P.... last I looked he didn't have either of the two favorites in the race as SS and Curlin went off as the favorites. Scat Daddy was a bad bet based on how poorly he ran at CD's in the BCJ and Circular Quay was a well beaten second to SS in the BCJ at CD as well. TP's other 3 entrants were all outsiders who had a "shot" and nothing more. Pletcher has sent out FAR more longshots in the Derby then favorites over the years because EVERYONE wants a shot at the "Holy Grail"... but there can only be ONE winner. IN fairness Bluegrass Cat ran second at 30-1 and Invisible Ink hit the board at similar odds.


OTOH, Carl Nafzger has run 3 horses in the Derby winning two for an incredible 66% win ratio..... but that is FAR more having the best horse in the race then anything else. Race in and race out TP has a FAR higher win % then Nafzger. Also, contrast TP to Bobby Frankel who ran what 50 some horses in the BC before winning one? I suppose Frankel's a questionable trainer as well.



Don't worry about Mr Pletcher he knows his way around a horse FAR better then anyone questioning him does. And none of us will be surprised if he wins 3 of the next 5 Kentucky Derbys' either. When people spend millions on horse flesh TP is usually at the top of a VERY short list of trainers sought out. He does an outstanding job all things considered and is a top all-around horseman from a family that grew up in racing and rodeo.

[Rokeby Forever]

A "top horseman?" Tell that to Oonagh MacCool!

[horsenuts]

A "top horseman?" Tell that to Oonagh MacCool!

And what's that suppodsed to mean?

[Rokeby Forever]

Read my tagline....it refers to his mentor. Like father, like son.

How's Keyed Entry feeling these days?

[horsenuts]

Read my tagline....it refers to his mentor. Like father, like son.

How's Keyed Entry feeling these days?

How's Keyed Entry feeling these days?... well, unless he's been euthanized he's fairing better then Barbaro or Ruffian or Go For Wand. How is it you leave their respective trainers out of so many of your "digs"?


Any trainer that has had a good number of horses to work with has had horses break down on them. Unfortunatley, it's a part of horse racing that few if any like... but it happens no matter the trainer. Now, some are worse then others but the trainers you note work with 100s of horses over the course of a year and will have a higher number breakdown but that doesn't mean they have a higher % break down then trainers with far smaller numbers to work with.


What would have been said about Ruffian and her trainer 30 years ago had the internet been around? It's easy to sit behind the anonymity of a screen name and do a hatchet job on people whether it be in politics or sports.

[Rokeby Forever]

What would I say about Frank Whiteley? He kept crippled Forego running until he was 8.

As for the rest of your argument, some horses break down...and some trainers break 'em down.

[Barbaro06]

Rokeby Forever,

Here is a recent article on the Green Monkey:

Prospective buyers gawked when he strode into the auction ring in February 2006. Talk about tall, dark and handsome. This was horse racing's new pinup, a bay colt with stunning looks and bloodlines to match.

While most of America rooted for the likes of Seabiscuit and Smarty Jones – the misfits and blue-collar horses that overcame adversity or long odds – this was a thoroughbred that made the aristocrats swoon. He was a 2-year-old in training, on schedule to run in the 2007 Kentucky Derby and for sale to the highest bidder.

Someone very rich was going to pay a lot of money for the horse later dubbed The Green Monkey. The question was who and how much.

At that auction for unraced 2-year-olds, he breezed an eighth of a mile in less than 10 seconds. Talk of a Derby win en route to becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 ensued.

When the auction commenced, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum reached into his pockets that are as deep as his oil reserves in Dubai. European moguls led by John Magnier, owner of the prestigious Coolmore racing group in Ireland, dug even deeper.

In a bidding war that produced gasps, the Europeans paid $16 million for the horse. The Coolmore group promptly named him after the exclusive golf course in Barbados to which they have ties and thought they might have had the Babe Ruth of horse racing.

So far, it's been a big swing and a miss.

The Green Monkey won't be among the 20 entries loaded into the gate Saturday at Churchill Downs for the 133rd Run for the Roses. Instead he'll be sequestered on a farm elsewhere in the commonwealth.

More than a year has passed since the auction, and the mega-millions horse has yet to race. Details of his status remain sketchy.

The owners have said little publicly about the horse. Neither has Todd Pletcher, the trainer who is more interested in discussing the five horses he has in the Derby than the 3-year-old some thought might be the odds-on favorite. Efforts to reach the parties for comment this week were unsuccessful.

But Tristan Berry, an assistant trainer with Pletcher, said The Green Monkey's problems go beyond an aggravated glutteal muscle cited as the horse's most recent setback or any other physical ailments.

"For $16 million, you'd expect a wow every time he'd breeze, and he never did it for me," Berry said earlier this week. "And I don't know why that would

FROM STUD TO DUD

Satish Sanan, who bred the horse, expected a nice return at a yearling sale considering the colt was sired by Forestry, which commands a stud fee of $125,000, and part of a bloodline that includes Unbridled, the 1990 Derby champion.

Dean De Renzo and partner Randy Hartley were understandably nervous after buying The Green Monkey for $450,000. It was the most they'd ever paid for a horse. But when they got the colt back to their farm in Florida and put him in the paddock, Hartley looked at De Renzo and said, "Dean, this will be the fastest horse that we'll own."

"I hope so," De Renzo said.

"He will," Hartley promised. "You'll see."

Eight months later, at the Fasig-Tipton auction for 2-year-olds in training, each of the horses would breeze eight-tenths of a mile at Calder Race Course in Miami. The Green Monkey, then unnamed and wearing hip number 153, cruised the distance in blazing time of 9 and fourth-fifths of a second. Moreover, the colt made it look effortless.

Over the next few days, veterinarians representing buyers took X-rays of the horse's bones and tendons and performed ultrasounds on his heart. The gentle animal checked out perfectly.

When they paraded the horse into the auction ring, announcer Terence Collier intoned, "He has been the talk since he got off the grounds. You can understand that. It's not the first time a 9.4 was seen at a 2-year-old sale, but we've never seen a better eighth performed by a 2-year-old in training."

Chimed in the auctioneer, Walt Robertson: "He's beautiful. He's fast. It just doesn't get any better than this. And what do you give for him? I don't know what to ask for."

He started at $2 million. The price climbed to $7 million. Then it turned into a two-way duel, with agents representing the sheik and Coolmore upping the ante at an incredible pace. At most horse auctions, bidding increments jump by $10,000 to $20,000. Now, at the Fasig-Tipton sale, the bids were skyrocketing by $200,000, then $500,000, and, at one point, $1 million. As the bids soared, the two rival groups seemed as determined to keep the horse from each other as they were to acquire it for themselves.

Three times the announcer asked the disbelieving crowd to quiet down, for fear the noise might spook the horse.

"It was like watching a real big game of Hold 'Em, and both of them went all in," said Boyd Browning Jr., executive vice president of Fasig-Tipton.

When the auctioneer finally dropped the hammer, the Europeans – through agent Demi O'Byrne – had bought the horse for $16 million, eclipsing the previous record of $13.1 million for a horse purchased at an auction.

"He'd better be good," O’Byrne told the Thoroughbred Times.

Of an estimated 60,000 foals born each year, only 20 make it to the Kentucky Derby. Some of the best come relatively cheap.

Escaping the notice of high rollers, Kentucky Derby winners such as War Emblem in 2002, Real Quiet in 1998 and Silver Charm in 1997 were bought for less than $20,000 apiece. Conversely, Fusao Sekiguchi paid $4 million for a yearling he named Fusaichi Pegasus, and in 2000 the horse went on to win the Derby.

"If you do have unlimited funds, you can maybe attempt to buy it," said trainer D. Wayne Lukas, whose horses have won the Derby four times. "But it's a difficult task."

WHERE IT WENT WRONG

The Green Monkey's owners put the horse in the hands of Pletcher, who has yet to win the Kentucky Derby but is widely considered among the best trainers in the world. His work with The Green Monkey started in Kentucky, also site of the first glitch. During a morning gallop at Churchill Downs, the horse got spooked while workers set up tents for the 2006 Kentucky Derby and the exercise rider fell off as the horse bolted.

De Renzo said he talked to witnesses who said the horse fell on its neck. Not true, said Michael McCarthy, an assistant trainer with Pletcher who said the only thing that hit the ground was the rider.

But the horse failed to produce any remarkable workouts and, after about a month of training in Kentucky, was shipped to New York. There, he ended up under the watch of Pletcher's assistant, Berry. He greeted the horse with enthusiasm tempered by skepticism.

"No horse is worth $16 million," he said earlier this week. Berry sounds even more convinced of that after watching The Green Monkey train in New York for almost three months before being sent to Ashford Stud, a farm in Kentucky owned by Coolmore. That's where the horse remains.

"The horse really didn't have any problems," Berry said. "He just didn’t show to be fast enough to run in a maiden race to where he was going to win. And if you were going to run him, that would have been the only result that would have been good enough."

Sanan, who bred the horse, said he regretted selling the horse when he heard about the $16 million purchase price. But since then, his perspective has changed. Turns out The Green Monkey had a full brother bred by Sanan, who says he has no idea where that horse now is.

"Gave it to a lady who looks after a farm for retired horses," he said, adding of that horse and The Green Monkey, "Both turned out to be duds."

Retirement could be where The Green Monkey is headed before his once-promising career even begins.

"Even if he comes back and wins some races, he ain't going to be worth much," Sanan said. "He'll be lucky if he's worth $1 million."

The ultimate payoff would have come after winning the Derby or a Triple Crown race. Top stallions command a stud fee of more than $300,000. With that in mind, Coolmore reportedly paid $60 million to $70 million for Fusaichi Pegasus after the horse that sold for $4 million as a yearling won the 2000 Kentucky Derby.

It's hard to imagine The Green Monkey ever will command a six-figure stud fee, assuming he ever races.

While The Green Monkey remains on the farm, Pletcher is busy at Churchill Downs, trying to get in position to win a Triple Crown race that would validate his reputation. Berry, who monitored the progress of the $16 million horse in New York, sounded excited about that prospect and, without a trace of irony, said, "It'll be nice to get that monkey off our backs."

Thanks for posting. I believe The Green Monkey will never race. Heck, he's at Ashford and for all we know and what his handlers are willing to admit, he may be getting set to become a stallion. What a waste of good money. Maybe using the name of a golf course put some bad mojo on the horse...who knows.

[Worksoplad]

"Nobody ever asks him about The Green Monkey...I wonder how many in that barn are just like him."

Todd Pletcher didn't go out and purchase the Green Monkey, which was obviously a "pump and dump" pin hook whose very existence was geared around that 9 second eighth of a mile in March. Clearly, judging from the Satash Sanan comment about a full brother who never made it to the race track either, TGM just doesn't have what it takes to make it to the track and be competitive. It has nothing to do with Pletcher or his barn personnel. The Coolmore billionaires club can simply write the purchase off on their taxes and move on. They probably have already done so, and only you are fixated on how much TGM cost at auction.

How about asking TP about Rags to Riches?

"A "top horseman?" Tell that to Oonagh MacCool"

Rokeby, sometimes you are as pathetic as your pathetic attempts at jokes and snide one liners. It's a pity the people you denigrate, castigate and libel don't have legal recourse.

[horsenuts]

What would I say about Frank Whiteley? He kept crippled Forego running until he was 8.

As for the rest of your argument, some horses break down...and some trainers break 'em down.

Actually, Sherill Ward trained Forego for several years as well. I believe he has a nephew that trains who you critic rather mercilessly as well.


Trainers that are revered such as some that you hold in high regard have horses break down but go unnoticed often times because they are in smaller numbers then stables with 100s of horses in their care. Yet, the % of breakdowns is how they should be judged.... not the number.


Pine Island broke down last fall in the BC and had to be euthanized yet I read no castigation of her trainer. You seem rather selective in your "persecution".

[madelyn]

Gives a new meaning to "a slow green.."

[Rokeby Forever]

Worksoplad...Pletcher gets maybe 100 two year olds a year...how many are still in the barn as 4 year olds? Do they ALL go to the breeding shed at three?

Shug McGaughey, Billy Mott, Barclay Tagg, and the like have mostly older horses.

Everyone deals with the same bloodlines.

The ball's in your court.

[llbean]

There's no speed in Street Sense's immediate pedigree, and he came from 19th to win the KY Derby. Horses like Real Quiet, Vicar, Menifee, and other big Derby closers haven't exactly fared well as sires. Giacomo's $12,500 fee will probably be $5,000 in five years. Grindstone is an Unbridled and he's standing for $3,500. Did Silver Charm fare well? How about Captain Bodgit?

Rockeby,

I think its notable that none of those horses you list were the Champion 2YO, as Street Sense was.

After all, perhaps its primarily a lack of precosity (which tends to correlate with coming from behind) that's hurting these Derby Closers as sires.

-llbean

[Sysonby]

Worksoplad...Pletcher gets maybe 100 two year olds a year

More like 200-250 from what I've heard. How many stay in his barn is probably as much a result of owner's wishes as what you perceive to be shortcomings in TP's program. Why would you pay Pletcher's rates if the horse has no stakes potential or plain can't run? Why would Pletcher want to keep that kind of horse in the barn?

Newsflash Rokeby..Pletcher, Baffert, Mandella and similar high profile barns all have horse turnover which has absolutely zero to do with soundness. and everything to do with limited resources of one kind or another.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi, Sysonby...I can't buy that in entirety.

I didn't realize Pletcher got THAT many two year olds every year, but be real...of the crew that just ran in the KY Derby, how many do you expect to still be racing at age four? Will they all go to stud, or most likely, wind up like Bluegrass Cat...break down and then go to stud? Pletcher couldn't scrape up a BC Classic horse out of his whole barn, so he made room for Lawyer Ron (knowing that Flower Alley was more cooked than a 20 hour roast).

As for other barns, I don't think they have anywhere near the "turnover" because they do keep older horses around. With all these barns, I think the ones that don't show ability don't make it to the races at all. The Green Monkey has had three chances at showing something....if he was "just" a $500,000 purchase, he would have stayed in the barn maybe a week the first time around - if he made it off the farm at all.