I'm with Sam on this one. I would have a hard time classifying her a top tier filly unless she wins with some class and distinction. When given multiple oppurtunities against top class horses, she couldn't get it done. She also couldn't get it done against the very consistent but second tier Octave.
In my mind, a big win doesn't necessarily separate a horse from being a "good" horse and being a "top tier" horse of their year.
Would you call Commendable or Giacomo top tier horses of their generation? After all, they both have a G1 to their credit.
Rags To Riches Out of CCA Oaks
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Rokeby Forever
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The modern day thinking is that a horse has to win everything to be a top level horse. Back when, horses were pointed for a race and used preps to lead up to them. Little Current is a great example - he did NOTHING before the KY Derby, but he's the most worthy TC non-winner not to win the TC in history - his Derby run was a worse trip than the Titanic's, and he easily won the Preakness and Belmont.
Shug is old school and won't win every race with a horse when he has a goal in mind. Pleasant Home is a great example of that. Winning the BC Sprint with Dancing Spree is another. Dancing Spree was subpar in the Fall Heighweight and terrible in the Vosburgh...but Shug got the trophy he wanted, didn't he?
It's obvious that in the case of Pine Island, Shug pointed her for the Alabama and the BC Distaff...she got better over time having not raced as a two year old. Boca Grande did race at two, so Shug is ahead of schedule with her.
The prep winners like the Pletchers wind up with Scat Daddy/Bandini types when the real chips are down. Or, their stock suddenly develop fevers when a contender pointed for a race comes along. Shug would cut his throat if he ever went 0-17 on a Breeders Cup day or entered 5 horses in the KY Derby and didn't hit the board with any of them. With Pletcher, such results aren't out of the question, are they?
Street Sense lost his prep for the KY Derby. Was the Bluegrass his goal? In that light, Boca Grande should be unbeatable in the CCAO...and Pletcher/Coolmore know it.
Funny that Unbridled Belle didn't have a fever this weekend. Neither did Sunriver.
Giacomo was pointed for a race - the KY Derby. It's obvious that he wasn't a top class horse because he was never able to repeat a top performance. Commendable won the WORST Belmont running in history. On tape, I had to fast forward the last half mile of the race to make it appear to be a normal half mile finish.
Let's take Sea Hero. Beside from the horse being nuts, what did Mr Miller do with him in the winter of his three year old season? He sent the horse down with Scotty Schulhofer to get fit, run in some races, all with the purpose to peak on Derby day. Mission accomplished. After a dreadful Belmont, Mr Miller backed up, prepped him for another goal (the Travers), and what happened once again? Mission accomplished. Sea Hero got trounced in a lot of races because of his own personal quirks, but when the chips were down, Mr Miller got the trophies he wanted.
Ergo, naysayers....those that do not learn from history are doomed to be wrong again - just like the doubters of Pleasant Home and Dancing Spree were.
Shug is old school and won't win every race with a horse when he has a goal in mind. Pleasant Home is a great example of that. Winning the BC Sprint with Dancing Spree is another. Dancing Spree was subpar in the Fall Heighweight and terrible in the Vosburgh...but Shug got the trophy he wanted, didn't he?
It's obvious that in the case of Pine Island, Shug pointed her for the Alabama and the BC Distaff...she got better over time having not raced as a two year old. Boca Grande did race at two, so Shug is ahead of schedule with her.
The prep winners like the Pletchers wind up with Scat Daddy/Bandini types when the real chips are down. Or, their stock suddenly develop fevers when a contender pointed for a race comes along. Shug would cut his throat if he ever went 0-17 on a Breeders Cup day or entered 5 horses in the KY Derby and didn't hit the board with any of them. With Pletcher, such results aren't out of the question, are they?
Street Sense lost his prep for the KY Derby. Was the Bluegrass his goal? In that light, Boca Grande should be unbeatable in the CCAO...and Pletcher/Coolmore know it.
Funny that Unbridled Belle didn't have a fever this weekend. Neither did Sunriver.
Giacomo was pointed for a race - the KY Derby. It's obvious that he wasn't a top class horse because he was never able to repeat a top performance. Commendable won the WORST Belmont running in history. On tape, I had to fast forward the last half mile of the race to make it appear to be a normal half mile finish.
Let's take Sea Hero. Beside from the horse being nuts, what did Mr Miller do with him in the winter of his three year old season? He sent the horse down with Scotty Schulhofer to get fit, run in some races, all with the purpose to peak on Derby day. Mission accomplished. After a dreadful Belmont, Mr Miller backed up, prepped him for another goal (the Travers), and what happened once again? Mission accomplished. Sea Hero got trounced in a lot of races because of his own personal quirks, but when the chips were down, Mr Miller got the trophies he wanted.
Ergo, naysayers....those that do not learn from history are doomed to be wrong again - just like the doubters of Pleasant Home and Dancing Spree were.
What synthetics are to California racing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gb0mxcpPOU
Maven wrote:Boca Grande wont win this race with or without Rags. She's a second tier filly running for a G1 placing.
Hi Maven,
Gotta side with you on this one, Boca Grande has no chance of winning the CCA Oaks. After watching her run the last couple times she just doesn't belong in this class. I doubt she will even show up for the Oaks. With Rags to Riches out, I have to like Lady Joanne (if Nafzger brings her back)--I think Lady Joanne and Octave are number two and three in this division. TJ
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Rokeby Forever
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Rokeby Forever wrote:C'mon, TJ...you've been around a while.
When Smuggler lost the Three Rings Stakes at Calder, did you think she'd win the CCAO? I never had a doubt - but nobody else would have agreed with me after that loss. What, lose the Three Rings Stakes? Smuggler must be second or third rate!
Hiya Rok,
I fail to see the comparison between Boca Grande and Smuggler. Smuggler showed potential not only when she got beat but when she won the Mother Goose, her CCA Oaks win was a slam dunk.
I watched Boca Grande's races closely--besides showing me no real potential to improve at 1 1/4 miles, she just didn't look right during the running of either of her last two races. She has been absent from the worktab for quite a while now and I think she has something brewing. I doubt she will even be in the starting gate for the the CCA Oaks. TJ
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Rokeby Forever
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Rokeby Forever wrote:Maybe training her differently? I never second guess Shug McGaughey.
Did you think Dancing Spree has no room to improve after his awful Vosburgh? Shug got the BC Sprint trophy!
Hey Rok,
I don't second guess Shug either, he has my respect--but the way Boca Grande was moving last time and her lack of works, there's no way Shug is even considering her for this race. It's like you said, Shug is old school--he's gonna train her into a race like this. TJ
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geowarrior
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This may be such an outerplanetary thought I hardly dare voice it, but perhaps there's no conspiracy or strategy here and Rags to Riches does in fact have a fever. I do know that a couple of my horses have spiked fevers very close to races, and believe it or not, they were scratched. Once they got better they ran in races again - fancy that!
Scared of Octave or Boca Grande? After daring to enter the Belmont? I think not.
And Rokeby, after knowing me as long as you have, how could you put Coolmore in the U.K.? Geography lesson for you. The U.K. is the United Kingdom, also known as Great Britain. The U.K. is divided into 'countries' which don't all have autonomy in the same way as we tend to think of a country, but which have in recent times attained some minimal autonomy. Obviously I know more about Scotland than about Northern Ireland (which has had its problems with its parliament) and Wales. The other unmentionable one of course is England. Scotland now has a parliament of sorts with a big building that cost lots of money. The country has always had its own separate education system, and perhaps more interestingly its own law system, despite not being a 'country' in the globally accepted sense of the word. The law system is particularly interesting although I don't know much about it - it supposedly contains elements of both civil law and common law. One of the most interesting aspects of Scots Law is that there is a third verdict available in jury trials which is 'Not Proven'. I've no idea how often this verdict is returned.
I know that for us England, Wales and Northern Ireland were all different 'countries'. In fact when we drove down to England the first time I remember - I might have been four or five, I thought it would look really different when we crossed the border because we were going to a different country. But it didn't. Not to say that there isn't a tremendous variety of scenery and great differences between Scotland and England, just that things don't change precisely at the border the way my four year old mind thought they would.
Scots Law is of course evolving with the existence now of the Parliament, and EC laws, and there are U.K. laws which are common to all four countries.
All of the 'countries' still have representatives in the British Parliament which still retains the bulk of the power. That's the one that has 10 Downing Street etc.
However Eire, home of Coolmore, sometimes known as Southern Ireland, is completely a country in its own right, and known historically for its neutrality. It is located on the same island as the U.K. Northern Ireland, but occupies a far greater proportion of it.
The Capital of the U.K. is London, the Capital of Eire is Dublin.
Scared of Octave or Boca Grande? After daring to enter the Belmont? I think not.
And Rokeby, after knowing me as long as you have, how could you put Coolmore in the U.K.? Geography lesson for you. The U.K. is the United Kingdom, also known as Great Britain. The U.K. is divided into 'countries' which don't all have autonomy in the same way as we tend to think of a country, but which have in recent times attained some minimal autonomy. Obviously I know more about Scotland than about Northern Ireland (which has had its problems with its parliament) and Wales. The other unmentionable one of course is England. Scotland now has a parliament of sorts with a big building that cost lots of money. The country has always had its own separate education system, and perhaps more interestingly its own law system, despite not being a 'country' in the globally accepted sense of the word. The law system is particularly interesting although I don't know much about it - it supposedly contains elements of both civil law and common law. One of the most interesting aspects of Scots Law is that there is a third verdict available in jury trials which is 'Not Proven'. I've no idea how often this verdict is returned.
I know that for us England, Wales and Northern Ireland were all different 'countries'. In fact when we drove down to England the first time I remember - I might have been four or five, I thought it would look really different when we crossed the border because we were going to a different country. But it didn't. Not to say that there isn't a tremendous variety of scenery and great differences between Scotland and England, just that things don't change precisely at the border the way my four year old mind thought they would.
Scots Law is of course evolving with the existence now of the Parliament, and EC laws, and there are U.K. laws which are common to all four countries.
All of the 'countries' still have representatives in the British Parliament which still retains the bulk of the power. That's the one that has 10 Downing Street etc.
However Eire, home of Coolmore, sometimes known as Southern Ireland, is completely a country in its own right, and known historically for its neutrality. It is located on the same island as the U.K. Northern Ireland, but occupies a far greater proportion of it.
The Capital of the U.K. is London, the Capital of Eire is Dublin.
I have no doubt Rags really spiked a fever. I was told the CCA Oaks was going to be used as a prep.
TJ, we are in complete agreeance. The only thing Boca has in common with Smuggler is that they wear the same silks, which is more than enough reason for Rok to crown her Horse of the Year in his mind.
TJ, we are in complete agreeance. The only thing Boca has in common with Smuggler is that they wear the same silks, which is more than enough reason for Rok to crown her Horse of the Year in his mind.
Don't be so humble - you are not that great.
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Rokeby Forever
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geowarrior wrote:One of the most interesting aspects of Scots Law is that there is a third verdict available in jury trials which is 'Not Proven'. I've no idea how often this verdict is returned.
If I recall correctly, that was available for a brief time here in the states.
Thinkin' OJ is pretty damn glad that wasn't an option during his trial.
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Rokeby Forever
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Chapel Royal might have been the best horse that Ocala Stud ever bred and could have been a Grade 1 sprinter at age three, but Team Coolmore ran him in the BC Juvie at a distance he never would have wanted and retired him after he sputtered in two crappy races at age three. You sober up, idiot!
Shake You Down, Snuck in, Outofthebox, Trust N Luck, Thunderello, Judge's Case, Castlebrook, Prince Monty....name me ONE top Montbrook that ran its best race as a two year old! What kind of a moron thinks that Chapel Royal wasn't ruined?
Shake You Down, Snuck in, Outofthebox, Trust N Luck, Thunderello, Judge's Case, Castlebrook, Prince Monty....name me ONE top Montbrook that ran its best race as a two year old! What kind of a moron thinks that Chapel Royal wasn't ruined?