Whirlaway wrote:However the racetrack surface is the key to her victories and will be the key to her demise - the surface in this race is her Achilles.
She won the Apple Blossom Stakes at Oaklawn in 2008 and 2010 on Real Dirt.
Zenyatta as False Favorite . . .
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wangkw
- Restricted Stakes Winner
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Where does this first lady like best ?
Cushion track
2010 Hollywood 1/2 8.5
2010 Hollywood 1/2 9
2009 Hollywood 2&1/2 8.5
2009 Hollywood 1&3/4 8.5
2008 Hollywood 1/2 9
2008 Hollywood 2&1/2 8.5
2008 Santa Anita 1&3/4 8.5
Polytrack
2010 Del Mar neck 8.5
2009 Del Mar head 8.5
2008 Del Mar 1 8.5
Pro-ride
2010 Santa Anita 1&1/4 9
2009 Santa Anita 1 10
2009 Santa Anita 1&1/4 8.5
2008 Santa Anita 1&1/2 9
2008 Santa Anita 3&1/2 8.5
Dirt
2010 Oaklawn 4&1/4 9
2008 Oaklawn 4&1/2 8.5
Cushion track
2010 Hollywood 1/2 8.5
2010 Hollywood 1/2 9
2009 Hollywood 2&1/2 8.5
2009 Hollywood 1&3/4 8.5
2008 Hollywood 1/2 9
2008 Hollywood 2&1/2 8.5
2008 Santa Anita 1&3/4 8.5
Polytrack
2010 Del Mar neck 8.5
2009 Del Mar head 8.5
2008 Del Mar 1 8.5
Pro-ride
2010 Santa Anita 1&1/4 9
2009 Santa Anita 1 10
2009 Santa Anita 1&1/4 8.5
2008 Santa Anita 1&1/2 9
2008 Santa Anita 3&1/2 8.5
Dirt
2010 Oaklawn 4&1/4 9
2008 Oaklawn 4&1/2 8.5
Our Greatest Glory Is Not In Never Falling But In Rising Everytime We Fall
In the last decade how many horses switching from synth to real dirt had ever raced the Derby distance?
How many of them ran the Derby trouble free?
How many of them placed in the money?
How many of them had two prior races over a dirt track?
How many of them had won at the Derby distance?
How many of them were coming into the Derby undefeated?
I guess with that logic we can dismiss Lookin At Lucky, wait, Lookin At Lucky has won on dirt, maybe we better think about this......
You just keep looking for lame excuses to pass on Zenyatta, or maybe just to stir the pot, who knows.
DDT
How many of them ran the Derby trouble free?
How many of them placed in the money?
How many of them had two prior races over a dirt track?
How many of them had won at the Derby distance?
How many of them were coming into the Derby undefeated?
I guess with that logic we can dismiss Lookin At Lucky, wait, Lookin At Lucky has won on dirt, maybe we better think about this......
You just keep looking for lame excuses to pass on Zenyatta, or maybe just to stir the pot, who knows.
DDT
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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Actually, of the two, I'd toss Lookin At Lucky before Zenyatta.
He's a NICE HORSE, don't get me wrong, but he has this tendency to get himself into trouble that he should be able to get out of--but doesn't.
There will be some pace to run at. Haynesfield got loose on the lead at the JCGC, and Quality Road likes to run up front. With Haynesfield, my biggest question is whether he's flexible or whether he's a horse for the course at Belmont.
So...good pace setup, a track that is fair to deep closers, a mare that can get herself out of traffic trouble, and the weather bids to be fine.
Toss her at your peril.
He's a NICE HORSE, don't get me wrong, but he has this tendency to get himself into trouble that he should be able to get out of--but doesn't.
There will be some pace to run at. Haynesfield got loose on the lead at the JCGC, and Quality Road likes to run up front. With Haynesfield, my biggest question is whether he's flexible or whether he's a horse for the course at Belmont.
So...good pace setup, a track that is fair to deep closers, a mare that can get herself out of traffic trouble, and the weather bids to be fine.
Toss her at your peril.
kimberley mine wrote:Actually, of the two, I'd toss Lookin At Lucky before Zenyatta.
He's a NICE HORSE, don't get me wrong, but he has this tendency to get himself into trouble that he should be able to get out of--but doesn't.
There will be some pace to run at. Haynesfield got loose on the lead at the JCGC, and Quality Road likes to run up front. With Haynesfield, my biggest question is whether he's flexible or whether he's a horse for the course at Belmont.
So...good pace setup, a track that is fair to deep closers, a mare that can get herself out of traffic trouble, and the weather bids to be fine.
Toss her at your peril.
If she wins, I wonder how much revisionist history will occur a la the 2009 BC Classic. Will we hear about how QR got a bad post or Haynesfield was a pretender who only looked like a good horse or Paddy O'Prado wasn't on his preferred surface or the Japanese horse wasn't much etc etc?
If she loses, she'll be a pretender herself. The sad thing for the sport is that you can write these stories before they even happen. Running in the BC Classic is incredibly audacious thing for a mare and its like everyone has forgotten that in an effort to paint her connections as a bunch of wussies.
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kimberley mine
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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Haynesfield ran his last two races--the Suburban and JCGC--with pretty cruisy splits. They weren't dawdling, but they weren't brisk, either.
He won't have that luxury in the BC. Quality Road and Etched won't stand for that.
As far as Zen and revisionist history, well, yeah. Pearl clutching, handwringing...yep.
Of the three-year-olds, Paddy O'Prado is my pick.
He won't have that luxury in the BC. Quality Road and Etched won't stand for that.
As far as Zen and revisionist history, well, yeah. Pearl clutching, handwringing...yep.
Of the three-year-olds, Paddy O'Prado is my pick.
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xfactor fan
- Breeder's Cup Winner
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My guess is that the Big Z has the speed to beat everyone in the field. However a lot will depend on the ride--she gets to the front, hears the roar of the crowd and figures her job is done. The danger in this is if she gets to the front and starts loafing someone could sneak up and nip her at the wire.
Mike Smith needs a rear view mirror for his ride.
Good luck to both of them.
Mike Smith needs a rear view mirror for his ride.
Good luck to both of them.
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Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
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Interesting to see this one playing out . . .
A couple of the announcers, I believe it was Randy Moss and Hank Oldberg, made several concerned and disconcerting comments about how horses running on synthetic surfaces didn't do well on the Churchill Downs surface. It sounded as if they were concerned about how well Zenyatta will run tomorrow . . . most certainly we will hear more from these "experts" about the race track surface dynamics before the races start tomorrow.
A couple of the announcers, I believe it was Randy Moss and Hank Oldberg, made several concerned and disconcerting comments about how horses running on synthetic surfaces didn't do well on the Churchill Downs surface. It sounded as if they were concerned about how well Zenyatta will run tomorrow . . . most certainly we will hear more from these "experts" about the race track surface dynamics before the races start tomorrow.
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
Whirlaway wrote:Interesting to see this one playing out . . .
A couple of the announcers, I believe it was Randy Moss and Hank Oldberg, made several concerned and disconcerting comments about how horses running on synthetic surfaces didn't do well on the Churchill Downs surface. It sounded as if they were concerned about how well Zenyatta will run tomorrow . . . most certainly we will hear more from these "experts" about the race track surface dynamics before the races start tomorrow.
And they made me want to throw something at my TV. I'm no synthetic fan but horses running well on the synthetic always seem to move easier to dirt than vice versa. The actual tally for dirt horses making their last main track start on synthetics was:
Marathon--Eldaafer--1st
Filly Sprint--Switch-2nd
Filly Sprint--Evening Jewel--3rd
Juv. Fillies--Delightful Mary--3rd
Not horrible at all.
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RuffianT21
- Allowance Winner
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The announcers have no idea what they're talking about. Four Breeders Cup races were run on the main track today.
Blind Luck, 2nd place Ladies Classic, has won 3 G1 stakes on synthetic tracks, and placed in 3 more
Switch, 2nd place FM Sprint, is a G2 winner on synthetics, and is twice G1 placed on synthetics
Evening Jewel, 3rd place FM Sprint, is a G1 winner on synthetics, and G1 placed as well
These are the horses who did so terribly today? I call nonsense.
Blind Luck, 2nd place Ladies Classic, has won 3 G1 stakes on synthetic tracks, and placed in 3 more
Switch, 2nd place FM Sprint, is a G2 winner on synthetics, and is twice G1 placed on synthetics
Evening Jewel, 3rd place FM Sprint, is a G1 winner on synthetics, and G1 placed as well
These are the horses who did so terribly today? I call nonsense.
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wallinga
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Whirlaway wrote:In the past decade how many Kentucky Derby hopefuls running on the synthetic surfaces have won the Kentucky Derby? How many Kentucky Derby hopefuls running on synthetic surfaces have posted faster Derby Prep times and Speed Figures when compared to horses running on dirt, only to run up the track on Derby Day? Even more complex and confounding is why horses that run on the plastic stuff do so poorly when they run on dirt.
Granted... but how many of those horses were Zenyatta?