TJ
I was reading Beyer's explanation printed in the DRF and in that he talked about how a double Beyer advantage was a good angle and if there was a triple Beyer advantage it was even stronger, so, I collected data on 1,000 horses and the double figure advantage had a win percentage of over 50% and the triple figure win rate was a little over 70%. I now have over 5,000 horses entered and these percentages have remained pretty close. I figured if I added some basic handicapping rules I might be able to raise the double figure advantage win percentage. I did further research and came up with the Double Beyer Advantage play and submitted it to ATM. So the answer to your question is yes, I used the Beyer numbers formulated around my rules and came up with the spot play system. It still is a very good play, the drawback is the winners seldom pay more than 2-1 because you are using a horse with the highest figure in his/her two most recent races coupled with sound handicapping rules and almost always end up the favorite. But again, it beats tearing up the ticket and sometimes you actually get a good price.
DDT
Lou's contribution . . . worthwhile to the sport.
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
zinn21 wrote:
I thought Whirlaway was defending Louis. Looks like you're reading his post like you read Zenyatta "floundering" at Churchill.
wow, zinn, a little snarky don'tcha think? Whirlaway has been searching for some topic to get ahold of and inspire a rip-roaring nasty slug-fest here, a little tiresome, frankly. But your dig at sysonby looks like you are still not over the loss of not being seen as unanimously "right" in your opinion of Zenyatta's running in the classic.
DDT wrote:TJ
I was reading Beyer's explanation printed in the DRF and in that he talked about how a double Beyer advantage was a good angle and if there was a triple Beyer advantage it was even stronger, so, I collected data on 1,000 horses and the double figure advantage had a win percentage of over 50% and the triple figure win rate was a little over 70%. I now have over 5,000 horses entered and these percentages have remained pretty close. I figured if I added some basic handicapping rules I might be able to raise the double figure advantage win percentage. I did further research and came up with the Double Beyer Advantage play and submitted it to ATM. So the answer to your question is yes, I used the Beyer numbers formulated around my rules and came up with the spot play system. It still is a very good play, the drawback is the winners seldom pay more than 2-1 because you are using a horse with the highest figure in his/her two most recent races coupled with sound handicapping rules and almost always end up the favorite. But again, it beats tearing up the ticket and sometimes you actually get a good price.
DDT
Hi DDT,
Ok, got it.....2-1 or there abouts with a 70% chance of cashing has to show a profit in the long run. Good Luck, TJ