Haskin's Derby Dozen

[bpressey]

Hello Whirlaway-

Yes, I believe Comma's win the Cashcall gave him what should be needed to qualify. Plus he will get 2 starts and a Santa Anita Derby in him this spring, at least that is planned. My biggest worry is his lack of dirt experience, and his front running nature - although he rated well last time out.

Uncle Mo's innate talent is what I believe will be his ultimate downfall. He is simply too strong for his physiology at this point. How can we credit Pletcher's horsemanship for his successes, and then turn around and blame the fragile thoroughbred for all of his failures?

Read the piece entitled Do We Need a Sturdier Racehorse at the TDN, it just won an Eclipse award and tackles the 'fragility' issue from many angles.

[bdw0617]

bp wrote:

Uncle Mo is more of the same: uber talented, under conditioned, and 50/50 to miss the big dance altogether. Pletcher isn't 1-29 with the best stock in the world for no good reason.

The above statement is either 100% true or the law of averages are about to see Pletcher trainee's run off a bunch of TC wins in a short period of time.

You are also messing with the "racing gods" who have the innate ability to make those who publicly express statements like the above, look like complete idiots..

You know, I am the president of the todd plethcer bashing club, but I think he's going to get it down with Mo.


doing alot of research i really think the real culprit is the track at gulfstream, not todd pletcher. I think Todd saw what happened to his star horse lasdt year and what happened to, probably his 3rd best 3YO he had in his barn.. rule is a better horse than super saver i'm sorry.,. yet gulfstream ruined his 2 better horses.. and and now, uncle mo won't be running at gulfstream.


I am going to rpedict, if todd doesn't run him at gulfrstam uncle mo will win the triple crown. I am to the point now i auto toss everything that runs there more than twice.

[TJ]

bp wrote:

Uncle Mo is more of the same: uber talented, under conditioned, and 50/50 to miss the big dance altogether. Pletcher isn't 1-29 with the best stock in the world for no good reason.

The above statement is either 100% true or the law of averages are about to see Pletcher trainee's run off a bunch of TC wins in a short period of time.

You are also messing with the "racing gods" who have the innate ability to make those who publicly express statements like the above, look like complete idiots..

You know, I am the president of the todd plethcer bashing club, but I think he's going to get it down with Mo.


doing alot of research i really think the real culprit is the track at gulfstream, not todd pletcher. I think Todd saw what happened to his star horse lasdt year and what happened to, probably his 3rd best 3YO he had in his barn.. rule is a better horse than super saver i'm sorry.,. yet gulfstream ruined his 2 better horses.. and and now, uncle mo won't be running at gulfstream.


I am going to rpedict, if todd doesn't run him at gulfrstam uncle mo will win the triple crown. I am to the point now i auto toss everything that runs there more than twice.

Hi bdw,
His owner wants to go to the Derby via the Wood Memorial route....Pletcher announced they will go to the Tampa Bay Derby then on to the Wood Memorial. Altough it's subject to change as he noted Uncle Mo is ahead of schedule and may find a race for him in early March. TJ

[NORTHSTAR1]

the mcm numbers in the list are not the same as those given if you plug the horses pedigree into this site -----any reason for that.?

[TJ]

the mcm numbers in the list are not the same as those given if you plug the horses pedigree into this site -----any reason for that.?

Hi North,
IM Bill from WA, he is the creator of the MCM numbers....I'm sure he would want to know if you found some errors. TJ

[NORTHSTAR1]

-----------your list-------my results

astrology------.69---------.67
stay thirsty----.75---------.71
jaycito---------.86---------.80
to honor-------.91---------.79
comma ------1.03--------1.17
brethern------1.07--------.88
santiva-------1.08-------1.35
soldat--------1.13-------1.05
boys at tos---1.13-------1.08
uncle mo-----1.16--------1.25
tapizar-------1.19--------1.29
dialed in------1.45--------1.00

why are there differences between your list and what i get when i load horses by name

[TJ]

-----------your list-------my results

astrology------.69---------.67
stay thirsty----.75---------.71
jaycito---------.86---------.80
to honor-------.91---------.79
comma ------1.03--------1.17
brethern------1.07--------.88
santiva-------1.08-------1.35
soldat--------1.13-------1.05
boys at tos---1.13-------1.08
uncle mo-----1.16--------1.25
tapizar-------1.19--------1.29
dialed in------1.45--------1.00

why are there differences between your list and what i get when i load horses by name

Hi North,
I meant IM, Instant Message Bill from WA, not I'm the creator of the number's.....he is:>) TJ

[Bill from WA]

The stamina numbers for three-year-olds running 10/12 furlongs for the first time are based on a different evaluation formula than the regular MCM numbers. The formula (which I have developed over the years) factors in particular points in the pedigree that, based on my research, seem to influence stamina.

Bill

[zinn21]

bp wrote:

My biggest worry is his lack of dirt experience, and his front running nature - although he rated well last time out.

IMHO, I don't think he could get a mile and a quarter with 18 starts prior to the Derby. He's a nice little colt but not a Classic horse. No old school conditioning program will ever get this colt to run a mile and a quarter.

[Whirlaway]

Comma To The Top hasn't run on dirt and that makes all the difference. Here is a link to an interesting article comparing these two:

http://horsetrainingscience.blogspot.com/2011/01/uncle-mo-comma-to-top-and-great-wall-of.html

[zinn21]

Looks like Comma is set to run in the El Camino @ GGF. Local newspaper with a story on Billy Morey's Positive Response another El Camino contender. Morey calls him his best three year old ever and thinks he is something special.

[Whirlaway]

There is still a lot of time left , anything can happen.

Who knows what will happen when Comma runs on the dirt. Why is he different when compared to others? Will he shatter or bow or dislike the surface like so many before him? And how many geldings have won the Kentucky Derby? I think Funny Cide and one before him.

Of course having a gelding changes many things w/respect to futures and training - one can work em' more frequently and with more purpose without fear of losing breeding futures. And what about his "cruising speed?" Haven't read much about how his "30 mph sustained gallop at maximal oxygen utilization", and how running on the synthetics and running on the dirt has an effect on such. Nevertheless, he looks tough, has a downright solid and formidable foundation and no doubt is a competitor that can't be overlooked.

Sure would be sweet if after he wins his next he ships down to SA and starts training on the dirt like a monster possessed. Now that would sweeten up the pot something special! What are his future odds . . .

In the Spirit of the Derby Trail, I hope he stays fit and well and provides the finest of competition for the two-year-old Champion training in the East.

[bpressey]

“Why is Comma different than others?”
He has more races and works in him at 12sec/f pace during the most formative year for a thoroughbred (at 2) than any other 3 contenders combined. If those were all on dirt, I would put my house on him at the current futures price of 25-1. He was 250-1 at one point on the futures board.

10 times the race specific furlongs in his young career gives him 10 times the chances to recover/remodel bones and come out stronger. But dirt is better for bone and tendon development than a more forgiving surface, it has been proven – so that is rightfully a concern. Nevertheless, that foundation should lessen his chances of a bow, not eliminate, but lessen.

Just because you haven’t read about cruising speed on synthetic vs dirt doesn’t mean I haven’t written about it last year.

Very different and very concerning. No one has ever prepped exclusively on one surface and shined on the other at 3. That could possibly be his downfall. Each surface requires different neurological coordination, a horse can learn to improve, but not if he isn’t given enough practice. I equate racing on synth to a human taking batting practice with fastballs – when you go to dirt, or start facing curve balls, do you fall to pieces?

[Whirlaway]

bpressey,

Please provide a link to all of the articles you have written, I would be interested in reading them.

~

There is still time, hopefully his connections will send him to the dirt so he can make the necessary adjustments. Looks likes he worked 6fl the other day in 59.4 - they're playin' it safe for now with this guy. You wrote, "10 times the race specific furlongs in his young career gives him 10 times the chances to recover/remodel bones and come out stronger." Please comment on him being a gelding and how that may or may not alter his development. What is your take on his Dosage figures?

At this point in time 25/1 looks like a good bet.

[bpressey]

Hello Whirlaway-

All of my stuff out there can be found at:

www.horsetrainingscience.blogspot.com

and

www.thoroedge.com

Trainer Peter Miller assured me that Comma would race on dirt once prior to the Santa Anita Derby, and also train on the surface repeatedly in March. He only went 5F this weekend ahead of his start at GG this weekend. I am not well versed in the science behind a gelding, other than I would not be a fan of the missing testosterone and its role in muscular development for any athlete, but as you point out it didn’t seem to hinder Funny Cide.

Also, I know little about Dosage and other pedigree matters. My take is strictly based on the ‘nurture’ of conditioning and racing versus the ‘nature’ of genetics. The mere presence of certain genetic traits means nothing if they are not expressed. I gauge this by collecting and analyzing physiological responses during exercise. Regardless of pedigree, if a 3yo going into the Derby can cruise at 15sec to the furlong while not yet at VO2max in the mornings on dirt – he is a threat Saturday afternoon. To that end, you can be assured he has the desired genetics to excel.

The reason Comma to the Top has gathered my attention is that he has been much more active racing and breezing than all others. In this process, he has earned 30X his purchase price at auction – which is what I call maximizing his economic potential.

Uncle Mo being the other extreme, few starts at 2, short breezes at 3, and so far even with a BC Juvenile win, earnings at roughly 6x of his auction price, albeit with a much brighter future at stud even if he retires tomorrow. I long for the day someone trains and races an Uncle Mo like Comma to the Top – because that is what I think would create a monster for the ages – like what happened 3 times in the decade of the 70’s.

Here is where I get the horseman’s argument “Uncle Mo is too good, he doesn’t need to train/race like Comma.” – and this is where I fundamentally disagree. Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, etc. and all the other superstars were genetic lottery winners AND campaigned/conditioned much more aggressively, as were Assault and others in the 40’s – you will find his detailed conditioning program on my blog and it is astounding.

Now the horseman replies “But horses are much less sturdy now because they are so fast.” – and I reply with the fact that Triple Crown times are no faster now than in 1940. Faster fractions perhaps, but correspondingly less stamina. Look carefully, and horsemen in the 1930’s were also complaining that breeders were turning out increasingly unsound stock –