Pedigree Question for Lou Finochio: Silver Medallion

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bdw0617
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Postby bdw0617 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:39 am

Whirlaway wrote:It poses an interesting question no doubt the connections are pondering. Ship to UAE and run on a familiar surface, maybe win the thing or ship to SA, the Derby preps and maybe a shot at the Derby. An envious and wonderfully anticipatory set of options. I'd like to be in the room listening to their conversation. NO doubt the bottom line: Which of the options leads to the money room?

He is still a young horse, how will he take to the flight, acclimation and what about the quarantine? How will he react? If he passes the first three, he then must win the race. Will he win the UAE Derby? Two million is a bunch and no doubt worth the effort, but shipping to SoCal poses fewer uncertainties. His only question go to SoCal is the surface. His works are on dirt - the chances of him taking to the dirt may be good. If he shows strong works maybe they get an offer they can't refuse. If he should happen to win a Derby prep, they have the option to sell or advance to the big dance.

I figure they send him to SA. We shall know soon enough.



If I were a betting man and I am lol, I would bet on the Dubai Trip. They are in it for the money, they make no bones about it. They are horse traders. They are out to get the most money possible for this horse. If that is the case, a 2 million dollar race, that is going to come up weaker than a 1 million dollar race, on a surface you know 100% you can handle, just seems like something they would do.

I could see if they planned to keep him forever, but they are looking to sale, and I think are going to try to get all the money they can. Plus, a 4th place finish in a 2 million dollar race, is what 100k? That would pretty much put them in the derby.
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dublino
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Postby dublino » Thu Feb 17, 2011 10:46 am

I thought only earnings in American Graded stakes counted?

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Whirlaway
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Postby Whirlaway » Thu Feb 17, 2011 5:35 pm

If I were a betting man and I am lol, I would bet on the Dubai Trip. They are in it for the money, they make no bones about it. They are horse traders. They are out to get the most money possible for this horse. If that is the case, a 2 million dollar race, that is going to come up weaker than a 1 million dollar race, on a surface you know 100% you can handle, just seems like something they would do.

I could see if they planned to keep him forever, but they are looking to sale, and I think are going to try to get all the money they can. Plus, a 4th place finish in a 2 million dollar race, is what 100k? That would pretty much put them in the derby.


Don't agree.

You're not thinking greedy enough. Why ship him half way across the globe for a possible fourth place finish? A good finish in a Derby prep gets him in the big dance and would increase his value more than if he were to get a fourth place finish in Dubai, would it not? I think the value lies in just a little bit of patience. I figure they work him on the dirt first, see how he does and go from there. If there are doubts about the SA surface, pick another venue for a Derby prep. If he wins a Derby prep at nine furlongs, and wins it easily, as I think he will, they've got the keys to the money room.

It might as well be March, no time to lose. They should be making a decision relatively soon.
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