A triple Crown that we didn't see coming!

majxmom · Postby **majxmom** » Wed May 11, 2011 3:47 pm

Wilf, I understand how you mean this, that he is a nice colt in a crop of third-tier horses, and by class he might just take the whole thing. But you know better: There are no flukes in the Triple Crown. We always know that it is a special horse by the two-year-old year.

Real Quiet almost made me eat my hat when I said he couldn't take the TC. I was at GGF the day he got beat (in a typhoon), and later when non-horsey friends asked me about his chances, I said, "Horses that cannot win allowance races at Golden Gate Fields do not win the Triple Crown." He almost made a liar out of me, but history prevailed.

wilf · Postby **wilf** » Wed May 11, 2011 6:25 pm

Yes I agree that the Triple Crown should only be the domain of the great ones as it has been so far ............however the current scenario has unfolded like nothing I have ever witnessed. This horse broke several barriers by taking the Derby and perhaps he is a special horse on the dirt after all. In 10 days many questions will be answered or events will conspire to provide more head-shaking.I for one cannot wait.

Joltman · Postby **Joltman** » Fri May 13, 2011 6:02 am

I liked AK in the Derby and he may win the Preakness. But I am very doubtful about a TC. As a lightly raced late developer, yes, he was sharp and ready for a big race. He may be able to sustain another one 14 days later in a more demanding race (speed wise) against fresh shooters. But I doubt he has deep reserves in his muscular/skeletal physiology to do all three.

The next one to win a TC will be one that was a Graded SW at 2 on the dirt, maybe even skipped the demands of the BC, and trained forwardly (even if not brilliantly) at 3. AK doesn't fit that profile, although he has the pedigree to do it.

I am actually more afraid of a Barbaro type of scenario - and pray not.

jm

wilf · Postby **wilf** » Sat May 21, 2011 3:26 pm

Oh well it was a good idea at the time! Shackleford was a brave winner for sure after washing out so badly. Animal was trying hard and lost no admirers in his effort. Johnny V's comments were very illuminating about the effects of the dirt kickback in the Derby versus the Preakness Lovely horse Animal and I wish him well this year.

erins isle · Postby **erins isle** » Sat May 21, 2011 9:50 pm

Pity, but I had my doubts also about the distance.
The Belmont will suit him much better.

TJ · Postby TJ » Sun May 22, 2011 5:51 am

wilf wrote:Oh well it was a good idea at the time! Shackleford was a brave winner for sure after washing out so badly. Animal was trying hard and lost no admirers in his effort. Johnny V's comments were very illuminating about the effects of the dirt kickback in the Derby versus the Preakness Lovely horse Animal and I wish him well this year.

Hi Wilf,
Seems that Shack washes out regularly going to the post....Roman's thought as "his" wash outs go....he wasn't as bad in the Preakness as he was in the Florida Derby and especially the Fountain of Youth where he was beaten more than 22. Imagine "if" he learns to chill on race day and has that extra energy for the race.....pretty nice horse? Take nothing away from Animal Kingdom as he continues to defy the bounce theory:>) I believe that is due to being trained to the minute for his TC shot by Graham Motion. AK is always there with his powerful run...another very nice horse. No doubt he would probably prefer turf as so many grass horses act the same way as AK does when hit with dirt in their face (yet he doesn't sulk and quit as many do)....Soldat did the same in the Florida Derby if you remember. I believe Motion has decided to keep AK on the dirt.....but I'd like to see him on the grass before he's through. This was an interesting and swammy like post Wilf....just a jump sooner and he'd be going for the TC, just like you thought. TJ