A 9-furlong commoner versus a 10F "real-thing".

[Jeff]

I have found that a horse that runs the final 3/8 of a 9 furlong major prep race in 37 4/5 or less or a final 1/8 of a mile of a major 9 furlong prep race in 12 4/5 or less has a definite edge in the Ky Derby. Combining this factor with several other angles has produced high impact values and high ROIs throughout the history of the Derby.

Hi Stan,

Thank you for participating in the thread, I always enjoy reading your posts. It's sad that every time you post something you immediately get a negative response. To bad, it certainly stifles anyone else from contributing to the thread, when every comment gets a trollish response.

Hopefully you will not get disheartened by the attacks and stop posting, but keep on participating.

Jeff

[Jorge]

I have observed that horses that are not capable of fractioning
8-1/2 furlongs in 1:42 and change,
and extrapolate that to 9 furlongs in 1:49 and change,
and 9-1/2 furlongs in 1:56 and change, cannot really aspire to win
the Kentucky Derby unless an outrageous scintillating pace
unfolds and creates some sort of caos.

But first, such a horse should be able to have some tactical speed
such as running 7 furlongs in 1:23 and change.

I have observed that all the horses that are winning those "100-points-prep" races
seems very-very capable of winning the Derby. But, as for the rest of the
horses that are arriving second and third...hmmm...not quite sure...
unless the "100-points-prep" winners ultimately cannot extend their performances
with the additional 3 pounds and extra 1-furlong.

As far as your consensus analysis the extra pounds is not a problem
(hmm, very interesting, I thought it was). As for the extra 200 meters I think
there is much more room for discussion here given that we are dealing with,
of all race-tracks, Churchill Downs, where feet size really matters.

In synthesis, if a newcomer ends up winning the Derby...there will be much
much analysis over here I guess!

[stancaris]

Jorge: Are you using the criteria as follows: The horse must show a 1 1/16 mile time of 1:42 and change OR a 9 furlong race in 1:49 and change or less in order to qualify as a derby contender. Or does a horse need to show both 1:42 or less for 8.5 furlongs and 1:49 and change or less at 9 furlongs in order to qualify?

[Jorge]

Jorge: Are you using the criteria as follows: The horse must show a 1 1/16 mile time of 1:42 and change OR a 9 furlong race in 1:49 and change or less in order to qualify as a derby contender. Or does a horse need to show both 1:42 or less for 8.5 furlongs and 1:49 and change or less at 9 furlongs in order to qualify?

Stancaris,

Thanks for your posting.

Based on the perceived "normative" that Kentucky Derby winners follow the historical circa 2:02 and change for the 10 furlongs of the race (and given the profound surface of Churchill Downs), I have observed that before the race occurs, it is some sort of "prerequisite" that the horse be able to accumulate on his behalf one or more of the afore-mentioned times when competing at one of those distances. Not that he/she has to achieve all of those times. but the more consistent he/she demonstrate the ability to earn those, the more solid candidate he/she becomes in my opinion. But not less important, first you need to possess a certain basic speed at intermediate distance. In my opinion 7 furlongs in 1:23 and change ---like Giacomo solidly did it breezing out before surprising many people on the KD! Remember, these are only personal
observations.

If I were to suggest a hierarchy of times I would say that 1:42 and change for 8-1/2 furlongs is a
very important fractional because it is a very tactical reflection of speed and stamina. But 1:49 and change for 9 furlongs is equally comparative because at that stage of the race not everyone is still standing. The same applies to 9-1/2 furlongs in 1:56 and change. Last, the same goes for 10 furlongs in 2:03 and change. But don't forget that clicking 1:23 and change for 7 furlongs is like some sort of head start ----something like being 6' foot for the NBA.

[stancaris]

Jorge: I analyzed the last 10 Derbies with regard to the following: In order for a horse to qualify it must have a race at 8.5 furlongs in 1:42 and change or less and a race at 9 furlongs in 1:49 and change or less OR it must have two races at 9 furlongs in 1:49 and change or less.

In the last 10 years approximately 17% of the starters qualified and 5 of the 10 years the winner was a qualifier: I'LL Have Another, Super Saver, Barbaro, Giacomo, and Smarty Jones.
The impact value for the above method is 2.94 and the ROI is very positive. Even if BIG LONGSHOT Giacomo was eliminated from the above study, the ROI would still be positive.

Now I know this is a small sample of only the last 10 years. However, from 1995 to 2003 several winners qualified: Monarchos, Real Quiet, Fusaichi Pegasus, Grindstone, Silver Charm and Thunder Gulch all qualified.

I only did the percentage of starters however, from 2004-2013. The above method you pointed out looks very promising and the impact values and ROIs probably were strong all the way back for the last 20 years or even more.

[Jorge]

According to the paradigm of probabilities already described and discussed
above, these are the Kentucky Derby participants with the most chances of
winning the race. The rationale justifying the opinion is in parenthesis.

01. Vicars in Trouble -- (1mile-70 yards in 1:42.57) also (9 furlongs in 1:50.77)
02. Cairo Prince -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:42.16)
03. Candy Boy -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83) also (8-3/4 lengths behind 9 furlongs in 1:47.52)
04. Chitu -- (9 furlongs in 1:47.88) also (1/2 length behind 8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83)
05. California Chrome -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (9 furlongs 1:47.52)
06. Midnight Hawk -- (7-1/4 lengths behind 8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (2-1/4 lengths behind 9 furlongs in 1:47.88)
07. Constitution -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.16)
08. Wildcat Red -- (a neck behind 9 furlongs in 1:49.16)
09. Hoppertunity -- (5-1/2 lengths behind 9 furlongs 1:47.52)
10. Wicked Strong -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.31)
11. Danza -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.68)

Of course that unexpected surprises do occurr!

Opinions are quite welcome.

[Jorge]

New revised list:

01. Vicars in Trouble -- (1mile-70 yards in 1:42.57) also (9 furlongs in 1:50.77)
02. Candy Boy -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83) also (8-3/4 lengths behind 9 furlongs in 1:47.52)
03. Chitu -- (9 furlongs in 1:47.88) also (1/2 length behind 8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83)
04. California Chrome -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (9 furlongs 1:47.52)
05. Midnight Hawk -- (7-1/4 lengths behind 8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (2-1/4 lengths behind 9 furlongs in 1:47.88) also (one nose behind 9 furlongs in 1:49.07)

06. Wildcat Red -- (a neck behind 9 furlongs in 1:49.16)
07. Hoppertunity -- (5-1/2 lengths behind 9 furlongs 1:47.52)
08. Wicked Strong -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.31)
09. Danza -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.68)
10. Dynamic Impact (9 furlongs in 1:49.07)

----------------------------------------------------------
Now out of Derby:

Cairo Prince -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:42.16)
Constitution -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.16)

[Cree]

Vicars in Trouble on top? He's sooo slow.

[TJ]

New revised list:

01. Vicars in Trouble -- (1mile-70 yards in 1:42.57) also (9 furlongs in 1:50.77)
02. Candy Boy -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83) also (8-3/4 lengths behind 9 furlongs in 1:47.52)
03. Chitu -- (9 furlongs in 1:47.88) also (1/2 length behind 8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83)
04. California Chrome -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (9 furlongs 1:47.52)
05. Midnight Hawk -- (7-1/4 lengths behind 8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (2-1/4 lengths behind 9 furlongs in 1:47.88) also (one nose behind 9 furlongs in 1:49.07)

06. Wildcat Red -- (a neck behind 9 furlongs in 1:49.16)
07. Hoppertunity -- (5-1/2 lengths behind 9 furlongs 1:47.52)
08. Wicked Strong -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.31)
09. Danza -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.68)
10. Dynamic Impact (9 furlongs in 1:49.07)

----------------------------------------------------------
Now out of Derby:

Cairo Prince -- (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:42.16)
Constitution -- (9 furlongs in 1:49.16)

Hi Jorge,
Dynamic Impact is ineligible on points, Midnight Hawk has been withdrawn. Chito may also exit, as he runs Saturday at CD in the Derby Trial....it is one mile, Baffert said he still may go a week later in the Derby? TJ

[stancaris]

What about General A Rod who raced the Fla Derby in 1:49 2/5 and in the Fountain of Youth he ran in 1:41 4/5?

[Jorge]

Based on their tele-timer performances along
with other multiple eliminating factors that have
occurred during the last few days, this is the
final list of horses with the real probabilities
of winning the Kentucky Derby ----of course
within the normal historical tele-timer occurrences!:

01. California Chrome ::: (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (9 furlongs 1:47.52)

02. General A Rod ::: (lets add 7 seconds to his 7 furlongs in 1:35.84 and
we end up with an hypothetical qualifying mark of 1:42.84 for the 8-1/2 furlongs)
also (He arrived a head behind in 1:41.85 for 8-1/2 furlongs).

03. Wildcat Red ::: (a neck behind 9 furlongs in 1:49.16) also (He also qualifies
because he beat General A Rod while clicking 1:41.85 for 8-1/2 furlomgs

04. Chitu ::: (9 furlongs in 1:47.88) also (1/2 length behind 8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83)

05. Hoppertunity ::: (5-1/2 lengths behind 9 furlongs 1:47.52)

06. Wicked Strong ::: (9 furlongs in 1:49.31)

07. Danza ::: (9 furlongs in 1:49.68)

08. Vicars in Trouble ::: (1mile-70 yards in 1:42.57) also (9 furlongs in 1:50.77)

09. Candy Boy ::: (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83) also (8-3/4 lengths behind 9 furlongs in 1:47.52)

[jagger]

Based on their tele-timer performances along
with other multiple eliminating factors that have
occurred during the last few days, this is the
final list of horses with the real probabilities
of winning the Kentucky Derby ----of course
within the normal historical tele-timer occurrences!:

01. California Chrome ::: (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (9 furlongs 1:47.52)

02. General A Rod ::: (lets add 7 seconds to his 7 furlongs in 1:35.84 and
we end up with an hypothetical qualifying mark of 1:42.84 for the 8-1/2 furlongs)
also (He arrived a head behind in 1:41.85 for 8-1/2 furlongs).

03. Wildcat Red ::: (a neck behind 9 furlongs in 1:49.16) also (He also qualifies
because he beat General A Rod while clicking 1:41.85 for 8-1/2 furlomgs

04. Chitu ::: (9 furlongs in 1:47.88) also (1/2 length behind 8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83)

05. Hoppertunity ::: (5-1/2 lengths behind 9 furlongs 1:47.52)

06. Wicked Strong ::: (9 furlongs in 1:49.31)

07. Danza ::: (9 furlongs in 1:49.68)

08. Vicars in Trouble ::: (1mile-70 yards in 1:42.57) also (9 furlongs in 1:50.77)

09. Candy Boy ::: (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:41.83) also (8-3/4 lengths behind 9 furlongs in 1:47.52)

Dang!!! I've thrown 3 of the above OUT!! I could be persuaded to REinclude Wildcat Red though

[Jorge]

Based on their tele-timer performances along
with other multiple eliminating factors that have
occurred during the last few days, this is the
final list of horses with the real probabilities
of winning the Kentucky Derby ----of course
within the normal historical tele-timer occurrences!:

01. California Chrome ::: (8-1/2 furlongs in 1:40.59) also (9 furlongs 1:47.52)

If we extrapolate the 9 furlongs in 1:47.52 (he already achieved) to 9-1/2 furlongs the result is 1:54
and change. That is exactly the same time he achieved today in the Preakness.

But seems to me that for the Belmont Stakes, he needs to slow down the 10 furlongs fractional
to around 2:04 or, even better, a slower 2:05 while leading or semi-leading.
Well, unless we are witnessing an extraordinary stayer.