Conduit profiles and playing the races

[Bill from WA]

Philly Park 12/30/05 (in order of preference)

1) 8-5-7-3

2) 8-11-2-10

3) 4-3-5-8

4) 5-4-1-7

5) 11-9-3-12

6) 7-8-2-6

7) 5-9-8-2

8) 6-7-11-9

I will be playing my top pick win and place, and may use the other picks in some exotics. Remember, this is an experiment to see if the profiles stand alone, and no past performances were used. I had to add a dozen horses to the database to get their profiles.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

In my rush to get the picks posted this morning, I forgot to factor in the off track contributions in the 5th race. The picks should be (with the horses total handicapping points in brackets), 12 (52), 9 (46), 10 (45) and 6/11 (tied at 44). The rest are correct.

Bill

[BenB]

Bill, if you have the time, look at renntermine 31st december Neuss.
If the weather changes, I,ll go up there, and like to spent some on the betting. Maybe we can split, the outcome. 50% for you and 50% for me.

One or two races will be more than handsome. Like to bet triples.

Expected for a large turnover, as there is a clash for the jockeytitle, it has been gooiing on for the last 10 weeks already. They are fixing for a 400.000 dollar turnover. Track will be muddy, tonight and early in the coming morning the snow will go melting.
With regards
Ben.

[Denise]

Here's how it came out:
1) 1,5,2,3
2) 10,2,5,3
3) 3,7,4,8
4) 7,6,1,2
5) 12, 10, 9, 4
6) 2,6,7,5
7) 9,3,1,5
12, 11, 4, 10

The track was listed as muddy, but toward the end, I believe it played faster. In Race 7, a stone closer (#5) broke far back (jockey error) and never stayed close enough to the pace. With a stakes horse winning, (and a 3 other than heat), it was a bad tactical error on the pilot's part. The horse was closing fast for 4th, but never really had a shot at winning against better horses.
Some of your picks boxed would play. It's an interesting test of the stats, for sure.

[BenB]

Bill,

The race was easily won by Glad to be Fast, ridden only hands by 1 and 3/4 of a lenght

[hpkingjr]

Bill:
To be fair: Why not use other handicapping aids/info in conjuntion with your system? All horse players use multiple aids/ visual inspection /track conditions etc. God couldn't pick the winners without the track conditions etc.. Lighten up on yourself and make your picks on a level playing field.

[Bill from WA]

Hi

The picks that I have been posting are designed to be used as experiments, just to see what would happen by only using the profiles. In actual practice I would use them in conjunction with other handicapping tools. That said, the profiles often point out winning horses that may have been otherwise ignored. Just today at Aqueduct, they shouted out a horse to me that won, and payed $45.40, and $9.80 to place (Epigramatic in the 1st). His totals were so much the best I couldn't ignore him. When I finish running my tests I will be combining the profiles with the other information that I ordinarily use in my own handicapping (been playing the ponies since the late '40's).

Regards,

Bill