MR. Sekiguchi --$8-mill yearling, to debut
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
He was surprisingly compact and well-behaved, not too weirded out by the crowd of oglers taking pictures in the saddling area. There was an amusing moment when the 8 horse was walking around and stopped right in front of the crowd, checking them out, like he was the center of attention.
In the race itself, I get the impression that the move was made too early and that he lost focus in the stretch when he was ahead by a bunch. Maybe there was a fitness issue as well. In my opinion, it didn't seem that Espinoza was being all that vigorous about getting him back on track. Great run by Rising Rate to catch them at the wire.
I think this Mr Sekiguchi has talent, but just needs more under his belt. Good-looking individual if a bit small, seems to have his head screwed on right.
In the race itself, I get the impression that the move was made too early and that he lost focus in the stretch when he was ahead by a bunch. Maybe there was a fitness issue as well. In my opinion, it didn't seem that Espinoza was being all that vigorous about getting him back on track. Great run by Rising Rate to catch them at the wire.
I think this Mr Sekiguchi has talent, but just needs more under his belt. Good-looking individual if a bit small, seems to have his head screwed on right.
austique wrote:My question is how soon until he joins Van Nistleroy and at what fee?
Depends. If he manages to black type this year, he'll retire by January for $7,500. If he wins any kind of a stake, $10k. Any kind of graded stake, $15k. Give or take 3 grand in either direction.
I don't see him racing to the end of his 4yo season. I don't even see him making it to June of next year.
He'll stud. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. He's the next Tiger Ridge, so even if he only makes $50k on the track, he's going to find a home in South Florida somewhere for at least $7,500 and be bred to 150 or so mares. That's $1.125 million and he earns his purchase price back in 9 years or less. And that is EXACTLY why commercial breeders are going to be the death of this sport.
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Sam wrote:austique wrote:My question is how soon until he joins Van Nistleroy and at what fee?
Depends. If he manages to black type this year, he'll retire by January for $7,500. If he wins any kind of a stake, $10k. Any kind of graded stake, $15k. Give or take 3 grand in either direction.
I don't see him racing to the end of his 4yo season. I don't even see him making it to June of next year.
He'll stud. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. He's the next Tiger Ridge, so even if he only makes $50k on the track, he's going to find a home in South Florida somewhere for at least $7,500 and be bred to 150 or so mares. That's $1.125 million and he earns his purchase price back in 9 years or less. And that is EXACTLY why commercial breeders are going to be the death of this sport.
I see hope for a few reasons... 1. There is now a Storm Cat son on every corner in the US which drives the price down overall. Studs like Giant's Causeway/FuPeg etc. are producing "commodities" rather than valued individuals by having 100-200 foals in a single year. Mr Sekguchi is just "another one of many" sons of Storm Cat and unless he steps up to the plate and wins a couple of Graded Stakes he'll be just another $1,000 stud that they will masquerade at $10,000(at least try to... but the gig is about up what with the incredible number of foals about to flood the market from these $100,000+ studs).
2. Many of these type of studs can be bred to for free with a decent mare so don't be fooled/swayed by the "sticker price". Remember, every stud fee is negotiable and with the onslaught of numbers from overbreeding it is only going to drive prices down further... not up. Much of the original intent of no AI in TBs was to keep this very thing from happening. Well that's been exposed and exploited.
As for Mr Sekguchi... I'll be surprised if he lasts very long as very few of the Storm Cat's make it to 10 starts and why it was imperative for him to get out of the maiden ranks ASAP. Every race takes 10-20% off his career based on performances of other Storm Cat offspring. And just why anyone would want to add such fragility to their own breeding stock is a real stumper. I'd recommend looking for soundness elsewhere than in the SC lineage.
LSB wrote:You guys are awfully tough on a colt who's only made one start.
I assume all your horses break their maidens on their first tries?
When you pay $8,000,000 expectations are just a little higher. And this colt has been honed on repeatedly for better than a year. It wasn't like a green Secretariat making his first start in June of his 2 year old year. Mr Sekguchi had been tested in the AM many a time.