Arkansas Derby, Bluegrass Stakes and The Northern Spur

[Bill from WA]

I have developed a formula to break the Modern Coduit Mare Profiles down to a small number, which indicates the female family pedigree influences that may forecast which runner has the pedigree to get 10 furlongs at this point in their racing careers. I took the Haskins dozen, and added three more contenders.
Listed below are the top 15 listed in order of their 10 furlong Modern Conduit Mare Aptitude Ratings. Talent is not considered, just the pedigree affinity to get 10 furlongs.

1) Sunriver (57.9)
2) Lawyer Ron (54.4)
3) Jazil (53.6)
4) Private Vow (52.0)
5) Discreet Cat (51.0)
6) Steppenwolfer (50.9)
7) Barbaro (49.8)
8) Point Determined (48.8)
9) A.P. Warrior (48.0)
10) Bob And John (46.0)
11) First Samurai (45.8)
12) Sinister Minister (44.7)
13) Bluegrass Cat (43.0)
14) Brother Derek (40.2)
15) Sweetnorthernsaint (39.9)

I took a look at Storm Treasure (48.0) Puts him near the lower third.

Some contenders, such as Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint, (both are talented horses) may outrun their conduit pedigrees, and do well on their talent alone. Sunriver (on the bubble as far as Graded stakes winnings) may be just now coming around, but, in my opinion, Lawyer Ron has the best combination of pedigree and talent to win it all. All the questions will be answered on May 6th.

Bill

[zinn21]

Bill, your numbers are right on. Just got your book (thanks) and think you're on the right track. I just posted regarding Jazil and bounced over here to see he figures pretty high on you list.

I've got some questions for you that I will address at your website. Glad to see you are posting and hope that's a good health sign.

[Bill from WA]

Let me add Keyed Entry (49.9)

Bill

[jagger]

I don't suppose you would like to elaborate on your formula, Bill?

[Bill from WA]

I just use the MCM profile numbers and triads of the subject horse, coupled with the triad numbers of the sire and dam of the subject horse, with special emphasis on the dam in the longer races. The formula is adjusted as to whatever the distance and surface a particular race is run.

Bill

[Tairaterces]

Hi Bill,

Could you please do Cause to Believe too . . . . . .

Thank you,
T

[Bill from WA]

Cause To Believe (46.3)

Bill

[Tairaterces]

Cause To Believe (46.3)

Bill

Thanks again Bill. They're still on the fence about taking the Cause to the Derby.

T

[Bill from WA]

Some past Derby winners and their MCM 10 furlong affinity numbers, plus Afleet Alex.

1) Fusaichi Pegasus (62.1)

2) Secretariat (61.5)

3) Seattle Slew (60.5)

4) Giacomo (57.0)

5) War Emblem (54.9)

6) Thunder Gulch (53.9)

7) Sea Hero (53.9)

8) Silver Charm (53.6)

9) Funny Cide (53.5)

10) Grindstone (53.5)

11) Go For Gin (52.2)

12) Smarty Jones (52.1)

13) Real Quiet (50.2)

14) Charismatic (49.7)


Afleet Alex (54.3)

[jagger]

Very impressive stats, Bill. Do you have a list of MCM profiles of Derby Winners with <50.0?

[Bill from WA]

Hi Jagger

Winning Colors (48.2)

Ferdinand (48.7)

Charismatic (48.7)

Alysheba (49.9)

[jagger]

Thanks, Bill. VERY interesting! So, if history is any indicator, Brother Derek, a favorite of many to win the Derby, has very little chance. Do you have a number for Monarchos and Sham, the 2 next fastest times at Churchill - although Sham not a winner of course.

[Bill from WA]

Sham (58.5)

Monarchos (51.4)

Brother Derek is such a beautiful and talented athlete, that he might be good enough to win it on talent alone, but I'm going to try to beat him. I'll probably include him in some of my exotic wagers.

Bill

[jagger]

So, Bill, do the Belmont winners show somewhat higher numbers to reflect the additional 2 furlongs?

Will your eventual Derby pick include any other considerations or simply the one with the highest MCM number which currently is Lawyer Ron?

[Bill from WA]

Hi

The Belmont formula will certainly include other factors when I run numbers for that race. I use the MCM numbers as just a part of my overall handicapping regimen when I actually place my bets. I insert speed/class figures and try to project a pace scenerio, and look for track bias. For instance, I don't know how Sinister Minister's freakish speed will transfer to Churchill Downs. Who will try to go with him? Can anyone stay with him early? Speed is so dangerous. My feeing is that he will hit the wall late, at least that's my view right now. If the race was running tomorrow, I would bet Lawyer Ron, but that may change as things sort themselves out this weekend. I usually load up on the exotics in the Derby, so I need at least four contenders to play around with.

Bill