Early List for the Preakness

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Barbaro06
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Postby Barbaro06 » Sat May 13, 2006 6:18 pm

Just read on the Bloodhorse website that King Leatherbury is considering running Ah Day in the Preakness after the gelding had a sharp workout today, but he knows there are better horses in the race than his. The owners will have to fork over $100,000 to supplement him. The last two years the horses that have impressed the locals here in Maryland got their hind ends handed to them when they went up against the likes of Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex in the Preakness. We shall see....

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Postby Easy Goer » Sat May 13, 2006 7:25 pm

Magic Wisner, a Maryland based, 50-1 shot came in second a couple of years ago. So whatever...

****

On Lawyer Ron. You may indeed be right on his retirement. Did anyone sense that he might be having soundness issues due to the way he bears out on the turn? He did it in both the Rebel and Ark derby. They saw it on his workout pattern at CD and I brought it up, to which one guy said that LRon trains that way in order to take advantage of the better ground in the middle of the track.

Yeah, right. Horse had been doing it for a long time before he got to CD and if you watch he usually starts lugging in after he bears out.

Last I heard LRon had a bone spur which sounds to me like a recurring injury. What do others think?

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Postby austique » Sat May 13, 2006 9:28 pm

Baffert's are definitely out now unless something happens to Barbaro. Field shapes up like:

Barbaro
Sweetnorthersaint
Brother Derek
Like Now
Bernadini
Hemingway's Key (?)
Simon Pure (?)
Ah Day (?)


Hemingway's Key is likely although only God and Nick Zito know why. I haven't heard much on Simon Pure recently (anyway). Ah Day is likely, possible, not likely depending what sources you read.
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Postby HR LLC » Sun May 14, 2006 12:32 am

I doubt Ah Day will be in the race. Giving up 100k will be tough to do just to race against a monsters like Barbaro and Brother Derek. The Preakness is 1 million and Ah Day would have to beat Sweetnorthensaint and Bernadin for 3rd to at least break even.

Ah Dav is a gelding so hitting the board at the Preakness would not give him any value.

If I owned Ah Day, I would keep my 100k and go to the Sir Barton. Then point him to the Ohio Derby, West VA derby and the Penn Derby. I would stay away from the top 3YOs as long as possible.

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Postby BenB » Sun May 14, 2006 2:14 am

hr llc

Your last command sounds very likely to me, earning money in for the horse better suited races on the moment, and waiting if he improves more.

It would be my choise definitly, meeting the big guns or what,s over from them in a couple of months gives plenty of chances in the future.

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Barbaro06
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Postby Barbaro06 » Sun May 14, 2006 5:03 am

I would have to agree with you HR. Smarten back in 1979 avoided Spectacular Bid although he did go up against him once that year along with Golden Act and General Assembly. But for the most part he avoided the Bid and wound up winning four Derbies of his own. I think it would be wise for Leatherbury to stick with the Sir Barton. I believe the Preakness field is going to be small, very small.

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Keith
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Sweetnorthernsaint should win the Preakness

Postby Keith » Sun May 14, 2006 7:33 am

Sweetnorthernsaint should win the Preakness!
If not Sweetsnorthernsaint than its Brother Derek
Like Now could also be tough
Barbaro was the best horse on Derby Day
Seriously can he bounce back in two weeks?

Box those four in the trifecta and throw some long shots in 3rd and 4th and fourth for the superfecta you could get a big pay off but 3 of those four should be in the top four.

Keith

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Postby FOS » Sun May 14, 2006 9:40 am

hi Keith

Keith wrote:Horses are bred for speed speed speed because that is what sells and there are very few real long distance races that go a 1 1/4 miles and further

The impression I get from your comment is that speed is a negative.

I suggest that speed is NOT a bad thing for a thoroughbred racehorse to have...and is arguably a necessity. The real question might be how far can horses carry their speed?

That might be a question that many breeders look to answer by using the services of sires (past and present) the likes of Dynaformer...Kris S...Pleasant Colony...Kingmambo...A.P. Indy...Sadlers Wells...Saint Ballado...Rahy...Wild Again...El Prado...Awesome Again...Nijinsky...young Montjeu etc etc etc?

Just two years ago we witnessed Birdstone (by Grindstone) dispose of Smarty Jones in the Belmont. Certainly Birdstone had a nice mix of both speed and stamina...breaking his maiden as a 2-yo at Saratoga winning at 6 furlongs by more than 12 lengths...then becoming the Champagne S-G1 winner (also at age two)...then going on as a 3-yo and winning the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes...capping it all off with a G1-Travers win in August at Saratoga. He had speed AND necessary staying power.

In recent years, horses like Ghostzapper...Roses In May...Pleasantly Perfect...David Junior...Barbaro...and Point Given (to name just a few)...arguably had serious speed (some more than others of course) they could count on PLUS the ability to carry it the necessary distance. In years past racehorses like Affirmed...Seattle Slew...Spectacular Bid...Dr Fager...and so many others, had a fantastic mix of both speed and stamina...necessary to win at the highest level.

Arguably it's a matter of personal taste as to what degree of speed and stamina each breeder considers injecting (using their matchmaking skills) while contemplating the possibilities of a prospective foal. Furthermore...producing a brand of thoroughbred that lacks speed is not what I believe breeders in general are attempting to create or for that matter would prescribe.

Certainly some breeders are attempting to produce that prototype pinhooker-special...that thoroughbred specimen with a bodybuilder-like look and proportion...arguably the dragsters (as in the world of auto racing) of the thoroughbred breed. Others like the Jacksons for example (who bred both this years Ky Derby winner and the English 2000 Guineas winner) are clearly attempting to breed a different type.

I suggest that you need speed, speed, speed whether you're goal is to win a drag race...or a Nascar event or the Indy 500...similarly, I suggest you need speed whether the goal is to win a MSW at Belmont...or the Kentucky Derby at Churchill...or the Belmont...or the BC Classic. You need speed.

Now that's not say that you don't need a degree of staying power also...but that raises the question, what exactly are you trying to accomplish? Certainly if your goal is to win at the one-quarter mile drag races you will need to produce a different type of vehicle to accomplish that than if the Indy 500 is your goal. Arguably, isn't it the same in horseracing?

Isn't it fair to suggest that Lost In The Fog is a different physical type than Barbaro appears to be...and that Lost In The Fog might best be compared to a dragster race car...whereas Barbaro might best be compared to an Indy 500 race car. Wouldn't you agree that both horses (as do the different cars) have speed, speed, speed...but each is designed differently to compete at the elite level, and win...although at different distances...

...and that without speed it would not happen.

Thoughts?

Best to you.

Respectfully

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Barbaro06
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Postby Barbaro06 » Sun May 14, 2006 10:03 am

Definitely a TB needs speed. I agree that it depends on what a breeder is looking to do...breed a sprinter or a horse that has speed but can go longer distances. I always have liked horses that could carry their speed over a distance...have something left in the tank. Barbaro's turn of foot in the Derby was awesome.

I was glad that Lost in the Fog's connections didn't jump on the TC trail knowing their horse is a sprinter.

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Keith
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Speed is not a negative

Postby Keith » Sun May 14, 2006 10:45 am

Speed is not a negative but we have tended to breed to Raise a Native and Storm Cat bloodlines and focus on breeding for horses that mature earlier and faster. Speed like Mr. Prospector is a dominant and very influential on the breed. We breed for what sells and horses with less than fashionable pedigrees tend not to get the best mares. We need to breed more than just a horse that is fast but we need to breed for a horse that can last. Dynaformer and El Prado have not got the best mares in their earlier years and year after year that have top runners racing in Grade I and Grade II competition. Look at the three great sons of Halo in Saint Ballado, Sunday Silence, and Southern Halo. One started out standing for $2500. Sunday Silence was sold to Japan and Southern Halo was sent to South America. Seattle Slew bloodlines are overlooked when there are very useful stallions like Slew City Slew at an affordable stud fee. He is the sire of Maysville Slew-earnings $1,046,409. Like Smarty Jones Maysville Slew is out of a Smile mare and his 2nd dam is by Foolish Pleasure. Maysville Slew's 4th dam is very influential mare Cequillo. Slew City is also the sire of Grade I winner Sis City. Of course you have to mention Lava Man who has made over 2 million and has won the Santa Anita H. and the Hollywood Gold Cup. Pleasant Tap another very useful sire whois by Pleasant Colony is priced reasonably and is the sire of Tap Dance City-winner of the Japan Cup and over 8 million dollars, Tap Day-winner of over $700,000,Tap To Music Grade I winner of $1 million,Buff winner of over $600,000, Boss Ego-winner of over $400,000. His Majesty has had a great influence on the breed being the sire of Pleasant Colony and the broodmare sire of Dynaformer and Danehill. Roberto has been very influential through his sons Dynaformer, Kris S., and Silver Hawk. Speed with staying power looks like the key. Look at Afleet Alex with the bloodlines of Mr. Prospector, Nureyev, and Silver Hawk. Look at Barbaro with the bloodlines of Dynaformer,Roberto,His Majesty, Mr. Prospector and Blushing Groom. Look at Tiznow with the influence of staying power being line bred Northern Dancer and the influence of the staying power of Seattle Song. As we tend to breed for speed and what sells some of the best stallions have not got the best mares. All the best mares either go to A.P. Indy or Storm Cat, and other stallion with outrageous stud fees. Horses like Kris S., El Prado, Dynaformer, Saint Ballado, and other great stallions have been overlooked early in the careers because they are not a son of Mr. Prospector, Seattle Slew, Storm Cat, or Northern Dancer. Breeding for speed is not a negative but why should turf and long distance pedigrees be overlooked. You need both in a pedigree and why are there so many speed ball horses that break down early in their career?

Keith

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Re: Speed is not a negative

Postby FOS » Sun May 14, 2006 2:55 pm

hi Keith

Keith wrote: Speed is not a negative but we have tended to breed to Raise a Native and Storm Cat bloodlines and focus on breeding for horses that mature earlier and faster.

In recent years...FuPeg (sired by Mr Prospector, a son of Raise A Native) was a $4mil yearling and went on to win the Ky Derby...hardly an indictment of Raise A Native.

Afleet Alex (a great-grandson of Mr Prospector, who is a son of Raise A Native) won the Preakness and the Belmont (hardly an indictment of Raise A Native.

Cat Thief won the BC Classic in 1999...hardly an indictment of his sire, Storm Cat.

Distorted Humor (by Forty Niner, a son of Mr Prospector and grandson of Raise A Native) won the Ky Derby and the Preakness...hardly an indictment of Raise A Native.

Affirmed (by Exclusive Native, a son of Raise A Native) was the most recent Triple Crown winner...hardly an indictment of Raise A Native.

Keith...the tools to breed the kind of horse you prefer are available and at your disposal. The fact that Elusive Quality (a great-grandson of Raise a Native) started at $10k and skyrocked into 6 figures is a testament to what he's accomplished. The same can be said for Barbaro's sire Dynaformer who you could have bred to years ago for $3,500+-, or Kris S who was available for as little as $1,500+-...or even Mr Prospector who stood for $7,500 until he proved something.

There are plenty of relatively inexpensive stallion choices out there...and if price is an issue (which arguably often it is) a key might be to use stallions that you like such as Saint Ballado at $2,500 (as you referenced)...when they're young and still have plenty to prove. Distorted Humor was available for $7,500 and Elusive Quality for $10k...and Storm Cat for $20k (and less) early on. I offer these as examples of stallions that stood for relatively small sums prior to proving something...which obviously they all did.

I suggest, don't be upset when a sire has success and the stud fee increases beyond your comfort level...that's just the nature of the game. I suggest...use your knowledge and skill as a breeder to select stallions (both young and older) that you believe can satisfy your needs and hopefully accomplish your goals.

You could have bred to Northern Afleet two years ago for $5k...he's bumped to $20k now but imagine what still might happen if he comes up with another good one. He might prove to be a bargain at even $20k...then again, he might go into the dead-as-a-door-nail mode. Those are some of the risks when playing the thoroughbred breeding game.

Last year you could have bred to Songandaprayer for $10k; this year although advertised at $35k, many have paid $55k...that's part of the risk of jumping onto the trail of what might be perceived as a very hot horse. Maybe it'll bear fruit...maybe it won't...no guarantees.

As you know, a couple of years ago War Emblem won the first two legs of the Triple Crown. Many dreamers then bred to his sire Our Emblem (a former Claiborne discard) for $35,000 upon his return to Lexington (to stand at Taylor Made). Arguably it was risky business...and probably proved to be a losing proposition for just about everyone that bred to and/or was connected to the horse (except of course those that sold Our Emblem back to Kentucky...reportedly for millions). That's one of the pitfalls of the game.

Keith wrote: Speed like Mr. Prospector is a dominant and very influential on the breed. We breed for what sells and horses with less than fashionable pedigrees tend not to get the best mares. We need to breed more than just a horse that is fast but we need to breed for a horse that can last.

If you want to breed what you believe is a sounder horse...and a horse that can get a mile and a quarter do it. There are plenty of stallions (and mares) out there that can get it done. But if you are looking to breed to proven and fashionable commodities that regularly get elite runners...be prepared to spend plenty.

Keith wrote:Look at Barbaro with the bloodlines of Dynaformer,Roberto,His Majesty, Mr. Prospector and Blushing Groom.

On the one hand it seems like you blame Mr Prospector for speed...but on the other hand you reference Barbaro (as you do above) and seem to acknowledge him as boasting bloodlines of note...including Mr Prospector. What am I missing here...are you making a case for or opposed to Mr Prospector? I personally believe that Mr Prospector is GREAT.

There are some stallions that have sired some TOP class racehorses in recent years. Stallions whose stud fees are arguably still not in the stratosphere. Examples...Holy Bull, who sired last year's Derby winner Giacomo...Cee's Tizzy, who got two-time BC Classic winner Tiznow...Devil His Due, who got TOP class Roses In May...Grindstone, who got Belmont winner Birdstone...Lemon Drop Kid, who got recent Ky Oaks winner Lemons Forever...etc.

Others whose stud fees were relatively low (maybe downright cheap) at the outset...before big-time success landed at their doorstep are...Distorted Humor ($7,500 early on)...Elusive Quality (originally $10,000)...Storm Cat (originally $20,000+-)...Kris S (as low as $1,500 & possibly even less)...Dynaformer (available for $3,500+- early on)...Saint Ballado (who you reference at $2,500, early on)...even Mr Prospector himself stood for $7,500 Live his first couple of years at stud.

I GUARANTEE there are other young stallions out there right now...that will become big-time stallions, that are standing for a fraction of what they will be down the road. It's your job as a breeder to have your hand on the pulse and make quality selections (and hopefully grab the brass ring). You indicate that you like Slew City Slew and Pleasant Tap (for example)...if that's the case, I suggest use them...many others do.

Keith wrote: Look at the three great sons of Halo in Saint Ballado, Sunday Silence, and Southern Halo.

Respectfully...your idea of a great sire and my idea of a great sire are clearly different. Yes Saint Ballado has sired some very good racehorses...including the TOP class Ashado and Horse of the Year Saint Liam...but as for Saint Ballado's place in history and designation as a sire...time will help define him, not only on his merit as a racehorse sire...but also as a sire of sires, and as a broodmare sire etc.

As for Southern Halo...arguably he had limited success as a sire in North America...was shipped back to South America from Ashford, and is NOT a great sire for the ages as far as I'm concerned...although he has sired a great number of stakes-winners, mostly in South America. I don't view Southern Halo as a sire worthy of the title...great, at least not yet, and I suggest, let's let time define Southern Halo also.

As for Sunday Silence he accomplished great things as a racehorse sire in Japan...but let's see how his sons and daughters shake out as breeding stock.
Keith...great is an accolade that very few are worthy of. I suggest that examples of GREAT are...Mr Prospector and...Northern Dancer.

Keith wrote:speed is not a negative but why should turf and long distance pedigrees be overlooked.

I suggest they are not...proof is in the pudding when you witness the American classics...and the Travers...and many of the TOP races at Saratoga and Belmont and Santa Anita and Hollywood Park and Gulfstream and Arlington Park and Calder etc and the card at the Breeders' Cup including the BC Classic and the BC Mile and the BC Turf and what about the card on Dubai World Cup day, and let's not forget the Arlington Million and the Irish and the English and the French Derbies and classics and the Arc etc etc etc. I suggest there is plenty of opportunity for the horses you describe.

That said...I suggest that (for the most part) a racing secretary worth his/her salt will write races for the horses on the grounds...whatever they are; he/she wants to fill races.

I appreciate what I perceive as your desire to produce longer lasting racehorses that can compete at what might be referred to as classic distances...on turf and dirt.
Best to you.

Respectfully

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Barbaro

Postby wen8t » Sun May 14, 2006 4:40 pm

Well it sounds like there are some people out there that still don't believe in Barbaro , He ran a 119 speed figure in the derby , I'm telling you this colt is going to get stronger and stronger, I really don't see anyone beating him this year , not even in the breeders cup , I think it is time for some of these people wake up and smell the cofee!

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Re: Barbaro

Postby FOS » Sun May 14, 2006 7:53 pm

hi wen8t

wen8t wrote:Well it sounds like there are some people out there that still don't believe in Barbaro , He ran a 119 speed figure in the derby , I'm telling you this colt is going to get stronger and stronger, I really don't see anyone beating him this year , not even in the breeders cup , I think it is time for some of these people wake up and smell the cofee!

Barbaro's accomplishments (or lack therof) do and will speak for themselves...so I ask, why expend energy trying to convince anyone to believe (or not to believe) in him?

For the record though...Barbaro is (from my perspective) absolutely positively a TOP class 3-year-old racehorse.

That said...reality is that despite your comment that Barbaro "is going to get stronger and stronger..." (your words) and despite your belief that you "really don't see anyone beating him this year" (your words also)...in horseracing sometimes the best horse does not win. Any number of things can go wrong...stumble...bump...boxed in...checked...saddle slip...equipment failure etc etc...arguably NOTHING is certain. That said...hopefully Barbaro will have the opportunity to continue to define himself...and without incident.

I sense he is a very special racehorse...a colt that seems to have all the tools, and could very possibly become a triple crown winner. Regardless...as we all know, we haven't experienced a Triple Crown winner since Affirmed pulled it off in 1978. That's a long time ago...and clearly it's a rare achievement...so let's take it all in and see how it all unfolds, for better or for worse.

Respectfully

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Keith
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Mr. Prospector is in a league of his own

Postby Keith » Sun May 14, 2006 8:11 pm

Mr. Prospector is in a league of his own
Great sire
Great broodmare sire
Great sire of sires

Barbaro is a very good horse and he dominated in the right race at the right time. He will get better but there is question whether he will bounce back in two weeks. It was the first time he dominated his competition and what a greater time than in the Kentucky Derby. He can race on dirt and turf. I just think other horses in the race peaked in their races leading to the Derby especially when you consider Sweetnorthernsaint and Sinister Minister. His Majesty is the sire of Pleasant Colony, Grandsire of Go For Gin and the broodmare sire of Dynaformer, Danehill, and Risen Star. Look at Barbaro and his influential bloodlines as he is line bred on two very influential Nashua mares in Gold Digger and Bramalea. Golden Trail has been a very influential in bloodlines when crossed with Graustark or His Majesty both by Ribot and out of very influential mare Flower Bowl. Roberto has a great influence through his sons Dynaformer,Kris S., and Silver Hawk. Hail to Reason a great broodmare sire is very influential as he is the sire of Halo, Roberto, and Bold Reason the sire of Fairy Bridge. Carson City has the magnificent cross of Mr. Prospector over Blushing Groom. Barbaro also has Round Table who is by Princequillo and out of very influential mare Knight's Daughter. He may not have Northern Dancer but he does have Nearctic the sire of Barbaro's third dam. Here are some some of the most influential horses I like to see in a pedigree
1. Mr. Prospector
2. Northern Dancer
3. Somethingroyal
4. Weekend Surprise
5. Almahmoud
6. Special
7. Hail to Reason
8. Ribot
9. Flower Bowl
10. Numbered Account
11. Alydar
12. Storm Cat
13. Rough Shod II
14. Grey Flight
15. Key Bridge
16. Crimson Saint
17. Buckpasser
18. Seattle Slew
19. Danzig
20. Fappiano


Keith

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Re: Mr. Prospector is in a league of his own

Postby FOS » Sun May 14, 2006 8:40 pm

hi Keith

Keith wrote: Mr. Prospector is in a league of his own
Great sire
Great broodmare sire
Great sire of sires

GREAT he is...simply GREAT.

Keith wrote: Barbaro is a very good horse and he dominated in the right race at the right time.

I believe that to describe Barbaro as "a very good horse" (your words) is an understatement.

Keith wrote:He will get better but there is question whether he will bounce back in two weeks.

Fair enough...we'll know soon enough if he can win with just two weeks between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Keith wrote: It was the first time he dominated his competition...

Fact is Barbaro is undefeated (6 for 6)...is a dual G1 (including both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby) winner...has won 5 stakes already (including 4 Graded)...has won on turf, dirt and slop...and was a 2-yo stakes winner to boot.

I say Barbaro is special.

Keith wrote:Here are some some of the most influential horses I like to see in a pedigree
1. Mr. Prospector
2. Northern Dancer
3. Somethingroyal
4. Weekend Surprise
5. Almahmoud
6. Special
7. Hail to Reason
8. Ribot
9. Flower Bowl
10. Numbered Account
11. Alydar
12. Storm Cat
13. Rough Shod II
14. Grey Flight
15. Key Bridge
16. Crimson Saint
17. Buckpasser
18. Seattle Slew
19. Danzig
20. Fappiano


Keith

Nice taste.

Respectfully