The Belmont Thread...No Barbaro or Bernardini Allowed
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
Sunriver
Sunriver's conduit mare profile would indicate aptitude for the distance. With Bluegrass Cat's incredible double copy mare pedigree, his large heart should be able to handle the substantial need for cardiovascular fitness that the 1 1/2 demands.
Re: Deputy Glitters
jagger wrote:Deputy Glitter's? With a GSV of 55+, 10 Dosage Points and a conduit mare profile more representative of speed than stamina, I'm a little surprised he is in the field. No Belmont winner has had numbers even approaching DG's. I can get pretty excited about Sunriver, Steppenwolfer, Sacred Light but DG.....pass... even @5x the price.
jagger, all do respect to George and Bill, but DON'T get blinded by 'numbers systems' and DON'T rely on them as the end all be all answer to picking winners. Systems are only as good as the person who designed it, the players who think they know how to use it and the horses who run the races ... and the horses don't know what their numbers are.
As far as your denouncing him because he only has 10 dosage points, you need to remember that a lot of Dosage points doesn't mean a damn thing nor does a dearth of them. The only thing a lack of points means is that there isn't a lot of chefs in the pedigree .. totally meaningless if you are talking about a horse from a young sire, young mare, young grand parents. Roman doesn't classify horses as chefs until they are almost dead so if the first 2 generations are under 20 years old, there won't be a lot of chefs there.
Sunriver's sister makes doubt the distance will be to his liking. She had issues when pressed going 1 1/4 miles and she was a whole lot more horse than he is. Bluegrass Cat doesn't want any part of this distance watching his races. I just think its hard to boil a horse race down to numbers and theories when you have actual performance in front of you.
That being said both have an excellent shot
Your lone "you know he's been waiting for this all his life" horse is Steppenwolfer (whom we all know I love), but alas the slow pace is going to kill him if he gets back too far and keeping him closer to the pace and taking him out of his game isn't going to help him either. Whoever staggers home first wins
I'm all over Double Galore. He wins by 20
Edit: I make a joke and it comes back to bite me. It appears we may have a more spirited pace after all with new shooters High Finance and Double Galore having performed best on the lead. Also make note that Deputy Glitters will scratch if it rains at least they said that at the Derby. Steppenwolfer, who loves ya baby?
That being said both have an excellent shot
Your lone "you know he's been waiting for this all his life" horse is Steppenwolfer (whom we all know I love), but alas the slow pace is going to kill him if he gets back too far and keeping him closer to the pace and taking him out of his game isn't going to help him either. Whoever staggers home first wins
I'm all over Double Galore. He wins by 20
Edit: I make a joke and it comes back to bite me. It appears we may have a more spirited pace after all with new shooters High Finance and Double Galore having performed best on the lead. Also make note that Deputy Glitters will scratch if it rains at least they said that at the Derby. Steppenwolfer, who loves ya baby?
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
Deputy Glitters
Sam,
All your points are well taken. I think it is quite difficult to pick winners using George's GVS and Bill's conduit mare profile because there are so many worthy contenders from both perspectives. I do think that in some cases, though, the numbers are so remarkably different than any previous Belmont winner that I do feel DG's has only a better chance than me winning the race and that is because he will be in the starting gate and I will not.
All your points are well taken. I think it is quite difficult to pick winners using George's GVS and Bill's conduit mare profile because there are so many worthy contenders from both perspectives. I do think that in some cases, though, the numbers are so remarkably different than any previous Belmont winner that I do feel DG's has only a better chance than me winning the race and that is because he will be in the starting gate and I will not.
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
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- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Hi
I only use the conduit profiles as a part of a handicapping regimen. I have started adding George's GSV scores recently with some success. I incorporate these tools as just a part of a good basic handicapping process. Pace, recent form, trainer/jockey combos, and speed/class figures are also in the mix. Once runners prove themselves on the track, the profiles are only used to compare individuals at various distances. They are helpful to me when a horse is trying something for the first time (distance, or surface). In the upcoming Belmont, I will be relying fairly heavily on the conduit profiles. I am studying the PP's today, so I'll have my top 4 later this afternoon.
Good luck to all.
Bill
I only use the conduit profiles as a part of a handicapping regimen. I have started adding George's GSV scores recently with some success. I incorporate these tools as just a part of a good basic handicapping process. Pace, recent form, trainer/jockey combos, and speed/class figures are also in the mix. Once runners prove themselves on the track, the profiles are only used to compare individuals at various distances. They are helpful to me when a horse is trying something for the first time (distance, or surface). In the upcoming Belmont, I will be relying fairly heavily on the conduit profiles. I am studying the PP's today, so I'll have my top 4 later this afternoon.
Good luck to all.
Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
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Bill from WA
- Breeder's Cup Contender
- Posts: 1936
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:20 am
- Location: Mountlake Terrace, WA
My Belmont order of finish (making allowances for an off track)
1) Sunriver
2) Steppenwolfer
3) Oh So Awesome
4) Bob and John
5) Bluegrass Cat
6) Jazil
7) Sacred Light
8) High Finance
9) Double Galore
10) Hemingway's Key
11) Platinum Couple
12) Deputy Glitters
Bill
1) Sunriver
2) Steppenwolfer
3) Oh So Awesome
4) Bob and John
5) Bluegrass Cat
6) Jazil
7) Sacred Light
8) High Finance
9) Double Galore
10) Hemingway's Key
11) Platinum Couple
12) Deputy Glitters
Bill
Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is like a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Langston Hughes
Langston Hughes
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elviswastheking
- Maiden Special Weight
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- Location: Texas
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Whirlaway
- Grade III Winner
- Posts: 1146
- Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 9:27 pm
- Location: Home of the brave.
Oh So Awesome in the Belmont ...
A question to the self-righteous alpha females and bull dykes longing to be free from their feminine selves:
Do tell us what isit like to be a woman longing to be a man? Is this masculinity that you so deeply desire a learned behavior or isit nature? And finally, should you have the intestinal fortitude to do so, do please share w/us how you manage this schizoidism, particularly those of you who are married.
A question to the self-righteous alpha females and bull dykes longing to be free from their feminine selves:
Do tell us what isit like to be a woman longing to be a man? Is this masculinity that you so deeply desire a learned behavior or isit nature? And finally, should you have the intestinal fortitude to do so, do please share w/us how you manage this schizoidism, particularly those of you who are married.
Restriction of free thought and free speech is the most dangerous of all subversions. - William O. Douglas
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It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
~
It is the characteristic of the most stringent censorships, that they give credibility to the opinions they attack. - Voltaire
Whirlaway wrote:Oh So Awesome in the Belmont ...
A question to the self-righteous alpha females and bull dykes longing to be free from their feminine selves:
Do tell us what isit like to be a woman longing to be a man? Is this masculinity that you so deeply desire a learned behavior or isit nature? And finally, should you have the intestinal fortitude to do so, do please share w/us how you manage this schizoidism, particularly those of you who are married.
Ummm, did I miss something here?
UmmYeah wrote:Whirlaway wrote:A question to the self-righteous alpha females and bull dykes longing to be free from their feminine selves:
Do tell us what isit like to be a woman longing to be a man? Is this masculinity that you so deeply desire a learned behavior or isit nature? And finally, should you have the intestinal fortitude to do so, do please share w/us how you manage this schizoidism, particularly those of you who are married.
Ummm, did I miss something here?
No, just an attention whore trolling for a fight.
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StrawberryFelidos
- Allowance Winner
- Posts: 425
- Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:04 pm
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StrawberryFelidos
- Allowance Winner
- Posts: 425
- Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2005 3:04 pm
Sam wrote:UmmYeah wrote:Whirlaway wrote:A question to the self-righteous alpha females and bull dykes longing to be free from their feminine selves:
Do tell us what isit like to be a woman longing to be a man? Is this masculinity that you so deeply desire a learned behavior or isit nature? And finally, should you have the intestinal fortitude to do so, do please share w/us how you manage this schizoidism, particularly those of you who are married.
Ummm, did I miss something here?
No, just an attention whore trolling for a fight.
Huh. I always thought Whirlway was such a nice Triple Crown winner. I had no idea he was such a misogynist.