My Kentucky Derby Top 12
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vineyridge
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Stevie Belmont
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These are obstacles he will have to overcome. The lightly raced question.
He is compared to Curlin. I don't like comapring horses. The one thing Big Brown did that Curlin did not was run as a two year old. Raw talents can overcome a lot. Enough to win?
When this guy lays down the gauntlet it will be exciting.
He is compared to Curlin. I don't like comapring horses. The one thing Big Brown did that Curlin did not was run as a two year old. Raw talents can overcome a lot. Enough to win?
When this guy lays down the gauntlet it will be exciting.
vineyridge wrote:I know Big Brown is a monster sized horse and ran a monster race in the FL Derby, but has he enough experience to win the Derby? He's only had three races in his life.
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Stevie Belmont
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Final ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby Top 12.
4/21/08
We have made a few minor changes. Bob Black Jack and Court Vision have been added to the list. Hey Bryn and War Pass are off. We made a few other minor tweaks. The list largely remains the same. All the major preps have been run. Making any more changes at this point is a little redundant. The top 12 here all look like they will be in the Derby. Next week will take a closer look at the Kentucky Derby and give our opinion and comments on how the Kentucky Derby in the ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby preview. We will go over how the race might set up and who looks to have the best chance to win the roses.
1)(1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) - Big Brown remains number 1 in the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. Big Brown worked again this past Saturday April 19th at Palm Meadows. Everything went smooth and he did it easy. He is scheduled for one more works before heading to Churchill Downs on April 28. We still feel at this point he has had the most impressive Derby prep win of them all in the Florida Derby where he broke from post position 12, gained command quickly and drew clear to win in 1:48 and change. Hey Byrn was soundly defeated by Big Brown in the Florida Derby, who came back to win the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. So far the feet issues remains a non-issue. He will wear special shoes on his front feet. He will enter the Derby with only three career starts and has had a tendency to drift a bit in the stretch. Indicating he is still learning how to do it. Big Brown might be the most talented horse of this crop. He is physically imposing and has a big stride. The Derby will be his 4th lifetime start. History is not on his side, but history is not a guarantee of future results He still has room to move forward since he is lightly raced. Some horses might have already run their best race. I do not feel this one has yet. He still has obstacles to overcome. If he were able to win the Kentucky Derby, it would be a huge accomplishment considering his lack of racing experience.
2)(2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.
3)(3) Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.
4)(4) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.
5)(5) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby
6)(6) Cowboy Cal- Giants Causeway – Texas Tammy – Seeking the Gold, February Homebred, (E/S) Cowboy Cal transferred his solid turf form over the poly with no problem. Cowboy Cal gives Todd Pletcher another horse that will qualify for the Kentucky Derby in 3 weeks. Cowboy Cal was coming off a 2-month layoff and might not have been as sharp for this and he still ran a very big race. His sire is the hot Giants Causeway who ran tremendous race in the Breeder’s Cup classic over the Churchill Downs strip, just barley beaten by Tiznow. Cowboy Cal set the pace in the Bluegrass and looked like he might actually win the race in mid stretch but was outlasted by Monba. We had mentioned in other places that we thought he would run strong here and he did. Now he will try another new surface for the first time. We feel he has a lot of upside at this point. His next start will be his second off the layoff and his last could very well tighten him up for the Derby. There is also the possibility he might regress. He will have to prove can handle the dirt. He has been very consistent and has run very well on the turf and poly. The only race he ran poorly in was his debut on dirt. We would be willing to cross it out, and chalk up as a loss plain and simple. It’s still in the back of their heads. Granddad on the bottom is Seeking The Gold . He looks good in the distance department.
7)(7) Z Fortune – Siphon – Fortunate Faith – Fortunate Prospect, March, Purchase Price $80,000 (S) Z Fortune makes a returns to the Derby 12 after his strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s trip was not as kind as Gayego’s. He was five wide going into the first turn and he lost ground. He was able to get back into contention and made a strong run after Gayego to get 2nd place money. He also galloped out passed Gayego when the race was over. Seeing him gallop past Gayego was a promising sign. It looks like he will handle the distance. We said he would have to rebound off his poor Rebel effort. He will try to become the second New York Bred in history to win the Kentucky Derby. One might have to question if he is good enough at this point. He enters the Derby off a strong showing in his final prep. It is always better to head into a race like that off a strong effort then a flat effort.
(6)(6) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) Pyro’s poor effort in the Bluegrass knocks him down to number 8 in this weeks Derby 12. We had no choice to move him down after some of the other good races run by others. There are two schools of thought on his bad effort in the Bluegrass. School 1 says he did not care for the poly surface one bit. In fact, he disliked it so much he would not respond over it. That is a valid excuse. He might not have liked it and ran bad. If that is true, he should get a pass and a much-improved try in the Derby is expected. Enough to win that is another topic for another day. The other school of thought is he might have just gone south after his tough 2-year-old campaign and two big efforts in Louisiana. Sometimes these younger horses can only string so many good races together in a row before they lose their form. Has he lost a few steps? I think we can attribute the poor effort more to the poly surface then his ability. Assmussen knows that Pyro was in the Derby no matter what happened in the Bluegrass. We would have liked to seen a strong effort in the Bluegrass anyway. I was unable to gauge his effort. We think he will bounce back in the Derby. Enough to win? He has won at a 1 1/16 twice. He never factored in the 1 1/8 Bluegrass. So going a 1 ¼ has to be a wonder. He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.
9)(9) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E)Recapturetheglory drops down after this weekends preps. The winner of the Illinois derby in front running style showed some determination when it looked like Golden Spikes would hook him and go by. It did not happen. Recapturetheglory dug down and turned him and the rest back. He received a good speed figure for the race as well. The fact remains he looks like a one-dimensional front-runner who needs the lead. The Kentucky Derby looks like it will have a solid pace. He will not have it easy there. The other question is class. He does not have the resume of some of the others and has beaten lesser. I liked the Illinois Derby. He ran well there. He also showed that is a game horse. The Kentucky Derby will be a completely new world with plenty of speed and class horses. Will he step up? It is a lot to ask, but anytime a horse has speed, they cannot be totally ignored. Breeding says no.
10)(11) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Smooth Air moves up to number 10 this week. Benny Stutts Jr has waited a long time to get to the Derby. Smooth Air will get him there. Stutts has confidence in his 3-year-old. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Smooth Air has speed and is yet another horse that could very well run on the front end. He ran second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. He was no match. However, ran a lot better then any other horse in that race. If he can find away to relax off the pace a bit, that would be the best approach for this horse. We do not know. The distance could be an issue as well. Trainer Benny Stutts waited and waited. Here he is in the Derby.
(11)(-) Bob Black Jack – Stormy Jack – Molly’s Prospector – Native Prospector, Purchase Price $4,500 (E) The speedball Bob Black Jack returns to the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. The $4,500 purchase turned out to be a real steal. He has of a world record and a track record over the new Santa Anita synthetic surface. Has yet to run on a dirt surface, but there is no doubt that he is a fast horse out of the gate. Bob Black Jack could very well figure to be a huge pace factor as he is one of the main speeds now that War Pass is out. Bob Black Jack has modest breeding. He is out of Stormy Jack. Bob Black Jack certainly has the speed to get a call for sure, but the big question is if this horse wants anything to do with a 1 ¼. He ran a determined second in the Santa Anita Derby to the highly regarded Colonel John. If you like speed, Bob Black Jack is your horse. We feel he will be on the pace and if anything he will try to take them all the way. It won’t be easy as the final furlong will probably be his demise. There are a few other horses that have some speed, so a speed duel is another issue facing this one.
(12)(-) Court Vision- Gulch – Weekend Storm- Storm Bird, Purchase price $ 800,000 (S/R) Court Vision finally makes an appearance on out ThorougbredZone Derby 12. Court Vision recording an impressive work out at Churchill Downs that many said was a very sharp looking drill. The son of Gulch ran third in the Wood memorial behind Tale of Ekati and War Pass. Court Vision could be coming into his own at the right time. If the work is an indicator of his forward development, he might have something to say. The down side is this, is he fast enough. The Remsen winner over Atoned was not a real fast race, but that was as a two year old. The Wood Memorial time was in a word, what could we say…slow. Final time in 1:52.35. He was able to pass Giant Moon to get the show spot. We think he need to take it to another level to be the Kentucky Derby winner. He is in the hands of the master Bill Mott who has be known to have them ready for big races. He is in good hands. The question is if this one is fast enough to win it.
Off the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12-
Hey Byrn looks to below in the speed and class department. War Pass has been eliminated from Kentucky Derby contention after the discovery of a broken bone in his ankle.
Notable mentions
Other possible entries are two Larry Jones trained fillys. Eight Belles and Proud Spell will be cross entered in the Oaks and Derby. The entry of either or both would knock others out who are on the earnings bubble. Rick Porter will decide after seeing where he they draw in the post position.
4/21/08
We have made a few minor changes. Bob Black Jack and Court Vision have been added to the list. Hey Bryn and War Pass are off. We made a few other minor tweaks. The list largely remains the same. All the major preps have been run. Making any more changes at this point is a little redundant. The top 12 here all look like they will be in the Derby. Next week will take a closer look at the Kentucky Derby and give our opinion and comments on how the Kentucky Derby in the ThoroughbredZone Kentucky Derby preview. We will go over how the race might set up and who looks to have the best chance to win the roses.
1)(1) Big Brown - Boundary - Mien - By Nureyev, Purchase Price $60,000, (E/S) - Big Brown remains number 1 in the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. Big Brown worked again this past Saturday April 19th at Palm Meadows. Everything went smooth and he did it easy. He is scheduled for one more works before heading to Churchill Downs on April 28. We still feel at this point he has had the most impressive Derby prep win of them all in the Florida Derby where he broke from post position 12, gained command quickly and drew clear to win in 1:48 and change. Hey Byrn was soundly defeated by Big Brown in the Florida Derby, who came back to win the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. So far the feet issues remains a non-issue. He will wear special shoes on his front feet. He will enter the Derby with only three career starts and has had a tendency to drift a bit in the stretch. Indicating he is still learning how to do it. Big Brown might be the most talented horse of this crop. He is physically imposing and has a big stride. The Derby will be his 4th lifetime start. History is not on his side, but history is not a guarantee of future results He still has room to move forward since he is lightly raced. Some horses might have already run their best race. I do not feel this one has yet. He still has obstacles to overcome. If he were able to win the Kentucky Derby, it would be a huge accomplishment considering his lack of racing experience.
2)(2) Colonel John -Tiznow - Sweet Damsel - By Turkoman March, Homebred, (S/R) - Colonel John remains in his number 2 spot after his Santa Anita Derby victory. He was wide and galloped strongly to pass the stubborn and speedy Bob Black Jack. He also galloped out past the 1 ¼ marker with relative ease. Getting the distance looks like it will not be an issue. He is also battle tested. He has won four of his six starts. He also had to work to get by Bob Black Jack and did just that. A similar situation is more then likely in the Kentucky Derby where there will be traffic and ground to make up. Colonel John has the seasoning edge over Big Brown. We do not know if he has the talent edge. In addition, to make matters more confusing is the fact that he still has never run on a dirt surface. Gayego had no problem in his first crack over it winning the Arkansas Derby. We think Colonel John will not dislike the dirt. It is still an unknown commodity for him. A fit and ready Colonel John, and if he takes to the dirt would have to considered a big factor on May 3rd.
3)(3) Gayego – Gilded Time – Devils Lake- Lost Code, Purchase Price $32,000(E/S) Gayego showed he is not a one trick poly pony as he won the Arkansas Derby over a stubborn foe in Z Fortune, who himself ran a very strong race. Gayego came east and won. Gayego sat off snappy splits and made his move turning for home and stayed on to win the Arkansas Derby GII in 1:49.63. It was a gutsy determined win for the colt out of sprint specialist Gilded Time. One of the biggest questions we had about him going into this event was if he could get the distance. He did in the Arkansas Derby. He did benefit from a real good trip along the inside. And that helped his cause in winning. The same trip might not be the case in the Derby. He also showed he does have to be on the lead. He relaxed a couple lengths off the pace before making a move. The question I have is still the same as had before the race. Will he want any part of a 1 ¼? His breeding does not suggest it. Z Fortune passed him in the gallop out. Gayego looked a little tired after the race. Therefore, we have to wonder how much this race took out of him. He did pass the dirt test. That is not really a question anymore. We will soon find out in the Kentucky Derby about the distance concern.
4)(4) Tale Of Ekati- Tale of the Cat – Silence Beauty- Sunday Silence, March (S/R) Tale of Ekati jumps up to the number three spot after the poor effort by Pyro. The big thing going for Tale of Ekati is his bottom breeding. Another who we think will have no issues going the 1 ¼. Tale of Ekati won the Wood Memorial with a long sustained drive to pass a tiring War Pass. War Pass set solid fractions before tiring a bit late and Tale of Ekati benefited the most. Tale of Ekati inherited the number 3 spot with Pyro running so poorly in the Bluegrass. We like the breeding. The biggest question with him is this…is he fast enough. The final time of the Wood was not blockbuster. The early fractions were quick, but the final furlong was not as great. Barclay Tagg knows the horse has class and will train him up to the Derby. His style probably fits with the anticipated pace scenario that could very well develop. We will just have to see if he is fast enough to win it all. We think he is going to be a good fit in the Belmont Stakes.
5)(5) Monba – Wavering Monarch – Hamba – Easy Goer, March, Purchase Price $200,000 (S/R) Monba finally gave Todd Pletcher a Kentucky Derby candidate after his win in Saturdays Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. He stalked the pace setter the stubborn Cowboy Cal and beat him to the wire. The final time for the Bluegrass Stakes was 1:49.71 over the perplexing poly surface. What do we make of Monbas win? It is hard to say. He broke his maiden at Keeneland. Pletcher had him ready to run a big race in the Bluegrass and did. He jumped right into the Derby. Monba was a sharp winner over the Churchill Downs strip at a mile in 1:35.2 a solid time in a 12-horse field. Breeding suggests distance will not be too much of an issue. His grandsire on the bottom is the late great Easy Goer breeding wise, and connection wise he is A Okay. Another question is will he move forward off it or will it take too much out of him. Todd Pletcher probably knows for sure. The real question as is with all the horses, is he fast enough? He looks to be one of the horses that has a real good running style for the Derby
6)(6) Cowboy Cal- Giants Causeway – Texas Tammy – Seeking the Gold, February Homebred, (E/S) Cowboy Cal transferred his solid turf form over the poly with no problem. Cowboy Cal gives Todd Pletcher another horse that will qualify for the Kentucky Derby in 3 weeks. Cowboy Cal was coming off a 2-month layoff and might not have been as sharp for this and he still ran a very big race. His sire is the hot Giants Causeway who ran tremendous race in the Breeder’s Cup classic over the Churchill Downs strip, just barley beaten by Tiznow. Cowboy Cal set the pace in the Bluegrass and looked like he might actually win the race in mid stretch but was outlasted by Monba. We had mentioned in other places that we thought he would run strong here and he did. Now he will try another new surface for the first time. We feel he has a lot of upside at this point. His next start will be his second off the layoff and his last could very well tighten him up for the Derby. There is also the possibility he might regress. He will have to prove can handle the dirt. He has been very consistent and has run very well on the turf and poly. The only race he ran poorly in was his debut on dirt. We would be willing to cross it out, and chalk up as a loss plain and simple. It’s still in the back of their heads. Granddad on the bottom is Seeking The Gold . He looks good in the distance department.
7)(7) Z Fortune – Siphon – Fortunate Faith – Fortunate Prospect, March, Purchase Price $80,000 (S) Z Fortune makes a returns to the Derby 12 after his strong second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby. Z Fortune’s trip was not as kind as Gayego’s. He was five wide going into the first turn and he lost ground. He was able to get back into contention and made a strong run after Gayego to get 2nd place money. He also galloped out passed Gayego when the race was over. Seeing him gallop past Gayego was a promising sign. It looks like he will handle the distance. We said he would have to rebound off his poor Rebel effort. He will try to become the second New York Bred in history to win the Kentucky Derby. One might have to question if he is good enough at this point. He enters the Derby off a strong showing in his final prep. It is always better to head into a race like that off a strong effort then a flat effort.
(6)(6) Pyro- Pulpit - Wild Vision - By Wild Again, Homebred, February (S/R) Pyro’s poor effort in the Bluegrass knocks him down to number 8 in this weeks Derby 12. We had no choice to move him down after some of the other good races run by others. There are two schools of thought on his bad effort in the Bluegrass. School 1 says he did not care for the poly surface one bit. In fact, he disliked it so much he would not respond over it. That is a valid excuse. He might not have liked it and ran bad. If that is true, he should get a pass and a much-improved try in the Derby is expected. Enough to win that is another topic for another day. The other school of thought is he might have just gone south after his tough 2-year-old campaign and two big efforts in Louisiana. Sometimes these younger horses can only string so many good races together in a row before they lose their form. Has he lost a few steps? I think we can attribute the poor effort more to the poly surface then his ability. Assmussen knows that Pyro was in the Derby no matter what happened in the Bluegrass. We would have liked to seen a strong effort in the Bluegrass anyway. I was unable to gauge his effort. We think he will bounce back in the Derby. Enough to win? He has won at a 1 1/16 twice. He never factored in the 1 1/8 Bluegrass. So going a 1 ¼ has to be a wonder. He also defeated Z Humor in the Risen Start who bounced back with a big Arkansas effort. Ah the questions about this one.
9)(9) Recapturetheglory- Cherokee Run – Cold Awakening – Dehere, Purchase Price $215,000, Feb (E)Recapturetheglory drops down after this weekends preps. The winner of the Illinois derby in front running style showed some determination when it looked like Golden Spikes would hook him and go by. It did not happen. Recapturetheglory dug down and turned him and the rest back. He received a good speed figure for the race as well. The fact remains he looks like a one-dimensional front-runner who needs the lead. The Kentucky Derby looks like it will have a solid pace. He will not have it easy there. The other question is class. He does not have the resume of some of the others and has beaten lesser. I liked the Illinois Derby. He ran well there. He also showed that is a game horse. The Kentucky Derby will be a completely new world with plenty of speed and class horses. Will he step up? It is a lot to ask, but anytime a horse has speed, they cannot be totally ignored. Breeding says no.
10)(11) Smooth Air- Smooth Jazz - Air France- By French Deputy, (S/E) Smooth Air moves up to number 10 this week. Benny Stutts Jr has waited a long time to get to the Derby. Smooth Air will get him there. Stutts has confidence in his 3-year-old. He was the only other horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Smooth Air has speed and is yet another horse that could very well run on the front end. He ran second to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. He was no match. However, ran a lot better then any other horse in that race. If he can find away to relax off the pace a bit, that would be the best approach for this horse. We do not know. The distance could be an issue as well. Trainer Benny Stutts waited and waited. Here he is in the Derby.
(11)(-) Bob Black Jack – Stormy Jack – Molly’s Prospector – Native Prospector, Purchase Price $4,500 (E) The speedball Bob Black Jack returns to the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12. The $4,500 purchase turned out to be a real steal. He has of a world record and a track record over the new Santa Anita synthetic surface. Has yet to run on a dirt surface, but there is no doubt that he is a fast horse out of the gate. Bob Black Jack could very well figure to be a huge pace factor as he is one of the main speeds now that War Pass is out. Bob Black Jack has modest breeding. He is out of Stormy Jack. Bob Black Jack certainly has the speed to get a call for sure, but the big question is if this horse wants anything to do with a 1 ¼. He ran a determined second in the Santa Anita Derby to the highly regarded Colonel John. If you like speed, Bob Black Jack is your horse. We feel he will be on the pace and if anything he will try to take them all the way. It won’t be easy as the final furlong will probably be his demise. There are a few other horses that have some speed, so a speed duel is another issue facing this one.
(12)(-) Court Vision- Gulch – Weekend Storm- Storm Bird, Purchase price $ 800,000 (S/R) Court Vision finally makes an appearance on out ThorougbredZone Derby 12. Court Vision recording an impressive work out at Churchill Downs that many said was a very sharp looking drill. The son of Gulch ran third in the Wood memorial behind Tale of Ekati and War Pass. Court Vision could be coming into his own at the right time. If the work is an indicator of his forward development, he might have something to say. The down side is this, is he fast enough. The Remsen winner over Atoned was not a real fast race, but that was as a two year old. The Wood Memorial time was in a word, what could we say…slow. Final time in 1:52.35. He was able to pass Giant Moon to get the show spot. We think he need to take it to another level to be the Kentucky Derby winner. He is in the hands of the master Bill Mott who has be known to have them ready for big races. He is in good hands. The question is if this one is fast enough to win it.
Off the ThoroughbredZone Derby 12-
Hey Byrn looks to below in the speed and class department. War Pass has been eliminated from Kentucky Derby contention after the discovery of a broken bone in his ankle.
Notable mentions
Other possible entries are two Larry Jones trained fillys. Eight Belles and Proud Spell will be cross entered in the Oaks and Derby. The entry of either or both would knock others out who are on the earnings bubble. Rick Porter will decide after seeing where he they draw in the post position.
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Stevie Belmont
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ThoroughbredZone Picks Big Brown
Many are running from this one, but the best horse in the race is Big Brown. No horse has run as fast and has looked better then Big Brown. History is against him, but history was against him in at Gulfstream and it history was against Rags To Riches, Street Sense and Funny Cide. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winning jockey and will be outside of any trouble, horses speed will get him right up font with ease. Probable short price, but he is the horse to still beat and we will not run from him. Post 20 still goes against my handicapping principles, but has time to get over, if he is as good as they say he is, he will win. Dutrow knows the horse and sees him everyday. He knows what he has and he is not shy about it. If someone is telling you how good he is, why doubt it. Will either look like a champ or chump if things don’t go his way after running his mouth. Has done it before and he has been right on. A win play is probably not the way to go. Will use on top in tris and zactas as well as some of the others mentioned here. Spread in pick plays.
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 134 Preview
Contenders
Big Brown- Most talented horse in race
Cowboy Cal-Sleeper with tactical speed
Z Fortune-Strong race in Arkansas Derby
Monba-Well bred to get distance
Colonel John-Should be there late
Tale of Ekati-Well bred to get distance
Could use these in a 6-horse exacta box. Any horse at all can be used under in bottom of tris and supers. That’s how you get the big pay out.
Horses Listed In Post Position Order
1 Cool Coal Man - Winner over Churchill Downs. Has yet to show that he is fast enough to win the Derby, brutal post-Not Using
2 Tale Of Ekati- Came home slow in the Wood Memorial. One of the best bred horses in the race and will get a grinding prolonged stretch run, will need the right pace scenario, poor post-User and saver win play
3 Anak Nakal- Huge stretch to win here, possible the longest shot on the board, behind in the class department-Not Using
4 Court Vision- Another who came out of the slow Wood Memorial. Fast Churchill work. Adds blinkers and figures to be closer to the lead this time. Is he fast enough remains the question-Slow Remsen as well would -Use under
5 Eight Belles- The only filly in the race. Large filly at that. Does not look to be fast enough for these. Bred to get distance. Porter wants a Derby badly, but may not be the year-Not using
6 Z Fortune- Sleeper. If you like Gayego you should like Z Fortune, galloped out past Gayego with a determined stretch run. He could regress, but he looks like he will get the distance. A User under and a savor win play.
7 Big Truck- New York bred needs to kick it up several notches in the speed department to get a piece of this. Probably not fast enough and distance looks iffy-Not Using
8 Visionaire- Consistent closer who has yet to run a real clunker, last on poly is a toss for several. Looks to be among one of the horses coming with a late kick, a horse to have in exotics at a price if he comes with a run- User
9 Pyro- The Jekyl and Hyde horse of the Derby, toss his last and he might have been the favorite. Never won a race over 1 1/16 and is still a question mark at 1 ¼..And still have doubts as to weather he is fast enough could get a piece in the right pace scenario-User
10 Colonel John- Solid form from the son of Tiznow. Strong closing move to win Santa Anita Derby. Galloped out strongly, still a question on dirt, logical choice in the top spot, User Either on top and/or under
11 Z Humor- Could show some speed, has really never done anything to indicate he can win here, would need a career best effort to fact-Not Using
12 Smooth Air- Only horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Solid tactical speed, distance looks to be his undoing and coming off fever are negatives. Not Using
13 Bob Black Jack- Ran right behind Gayego and Colonel John. This guy is fast and certainly figures to be gunned to the lead, could make a major impact in the pace scenario, but staying the 1 ¼ under the expected pressure looks to be overwhelming. Not Using.
14 Monba- One of the biggest question marks in the race, superb breeding and bred to run all day, won at a 1 1/8 and looks to make a late bid again, Pletcher is flying under the radar, and a winner at Churchill, horse will have to prove he is fast enough, but could very well get in there if he runs to his breeding-User
15 Adriano- Viewed primarily as a turf and synthetic horse, will have to prove in can handle the dirt in the biggest race of them all, Nice stride, but looks like he is another who lacks the speed to win. – Not Using
16 Denis of Cork-Ran a flat Illinois Derby, stone closer looked good early on, but looks like he is not tight enough for this and we doubt his kick will be as effective at a 1 ¼-Not Using
17 Cowboy Cal- Another sleeper at a price, has run some of the fastest races of any horse in the race, all be it on grass, solid stalk/tactical speed and looks to have a pedigree that says yes to a 1 ¼, should be in the picture for most of the race, possibly the biggest dark horse in the race, never been on dirt, his sire Giants Causeway ran a game second in the BC Classic-User and saver win.
18 Recapturetheglory- Another one of the early pace factor horses, had an easy win in the Illinois Derby and received a solid speed figure, will not encounter the same trip in Derby. Will have to get over from post, should begin to struggle as he approaches the top of the turn-Not Using
19 Gayego- Arkansas Derby winner proved he can run on dirt, as consistent as they come, but getting the 1 1/14 looks to be a huge issue, being by Gilded Time, and looked a little tired after the Arkansas Derby-Not Using
20 Big Brown- The most talented horse in the race, will have to use that talent to win from post 20, he has shown he can run fast early and keep it going late, will try to get over and sit off the leaders and make a bid, connections confident and as a player it nice to know that, right trip most logical winner, post 20 is still tough. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winner and knows the Churchill ropes- Top Choice User top and bottom
Many are running from this one, but the best horse in the race is Big Brown. No horse has run as fast and has looked better then Big Brown. History is against him, but history was against him in at Gulfstream and it history was against Rags To Riches, Street Sense and Funny Cide. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winning jockey and will be outside of any trouble, horses speed will get him right up font with ease. Probable short price, but he is the horse to still beat and we will not run from him. Post 20 still goes against my handicapping principles, but has time to get over, if he is as good as they say he is, he will win. Dutrow knows the horse and sees him everyday. He knows what he has and he is not shy about it. If someone is telling you how good he is, why doubt it. Will either look like a champ or chump if things don’t go his way after running his mouth. Has done it before and he has been right on. A win play is probably not the way to go. Will use on top in tris and zactas as well as some of the others mentioned here. Spread in pick plays.
ThoroughbredZone’s Kentucky Derby 134 Preview
Contenders
Big Brown- Most talented horse in race
Cowboy Cal-Sleeper with tactical speed
Z Fortune-Strong race in Arkansas Derby
Monba-Well bred to get distance
Colonel John-Should be there late
Tale of Ekati-Well bred to get distance
Could use these in a 6-horse exacta box. Any horse at all can be used under in bottom of tris and supers. That’s how you get the big pay out.
Horses Listed In Post Position Order
1 Cool Coal Man - Winner over Churchill Downs. Has yet to show that he is fast enough to win the Derby, brutal post-Not Using
2 Tale Of Ekati- Came home slow in the Wood Memorial. One of the best bred horses in the race and will get a grinding prolonged stretch run, will need the right pace scenario, poor post-User and saver win play
3 Anak Nakal- Huge stretch to win here, possible the longest shot on the board, behind in the class department-Not Using
4 Court Vision- Another who came out of the slow Wood Memorial. Fast Churchill work. Adds blinkers and figures to be closer to the lead this time. Is he fast enough remains the question-Slow Remsen as well would -Use under
5 Eight Belles- The only filly in the race. Large filly at that. Does not look to be fast enough for these. Bred to get distance. Porter wants a Derby badly, but may not be the year-Not using
6 Z Fortune- Sleeper. If you like Gayego you should like Z Fortune, galloped out past Gayego with a determined stretch run. He could regress, but he looks like he will get the distance. A User under and a savor win play.
7 Big Truck- New York bred needs to kick it up several notches in the speed department to get a piece of this. Probably not fast enough and distance looks iffy-Not Using
8 Visionaire- Consistent closer who has yet to run a real clunker, last on poly is a toss for several. Looks to be among one of the horses coming with a late kick, a horse to have in exotics at a price if he comes with a run- User
9 Pyro- The Jekyl and Hyde horse of the Derby, toss his last and he might have been the favorite. Never won a race over 1 1/16 and is still a question mark at 1 ¼..And still have doubts as to weather he is fast enough could get a piece in the right pace scenario-User
10 Colonel John- Solid form from the son of Tiznow. Strong closing move to win Santa Anita Derby. Galloped out strongly, still a question on dirt, logical choice in the top spot, User Either on top and/or under
11 Z Humor- Could show some speed, has really never done anything to indicate he can win here, would need a career best effort to fact-Not Using
12 Smooth Air- Only horse in the picture when Big Brown hit the wire. Solid tactical speed, distance looks to be his undoing and coming off fever are negatives. Not Using
13 Bob Black Jack- Ran right behind Gayego and Colonel John. This guy is fast and certainly figures to be gunned to the lead, could make a major impact in the pace scenario, but staying the 1 ¼ under the expected pressure looks to be overwhelming. Not Using.
14 Monba- One of the biggest question marks in the race, superb breeding and bred to run all day, won at a 1 1/8 and looks to make a late bid again, Pletcher is flying under the radar, and a winner at Churchill, horse will have to prove he is fast enough, but could very well get in there if he runs to his breeding-User
15 Adriano- Viewed primarily as a turf and synthetic horse, will have to prove in can handle the dirt in the biggest race of them all, Nice stride, but looks like he is another who lacks the speed to win. – Not Using
16 Denis of Cork-Ran a flat Illinois Derby, stone closer looked good early on, but looks like he is not tight enough for this and we doubt his kick will be as effective at a 1 ¼-Not Using
17 Cowboy Cal- Another sleeper at a price, has run some of the fastest races of any horse in the race, all be it on grass, solid stalk/tactical speed and looks to have a pedigree that says yes to a 1 ¼, should be in the picture for most of the race, possibly the biggest dark horse in the race, never been on dirt, his sire Giants Causeway ran a game second in the BC Classic-User and saver win.
18 Recapturetheglory- Another one of the early pace factor horses, had an easy win in the Illinois Derby and received a solid speed figure, will not encounter the same trip in Derby. Will have to get over from post, should begin to struggle as he approaches the top of the turn-Not Using
19 Gayego- Arkansas Derby winner proved he can run on dirt, as consistent as they come, but getting the 1 1/14 looks to be a huge issue, being by Gilded Time, and looked a little tired after the Arkansas Derby-Not Using
20 Big Brown- The most talented horse in the race, will have to use that talent to win from post 20, he has shown he can run fast early and keep it going late, will try to get over and sit off the leaders and make a bid, connections confident and as a player it nice to know that, right trip most logical winner, post 20 is still tough. Kent Desormeaux is a two time Derby winner and knows the Churchill ropes- Top Choice User top and bottom
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Stevie Belmont
- Allowance Winner
- Posts: 398
- Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 6:56 am
- Location: Meadowlands
- Contact:
eight belles
8 Belles has a pedigree similar to Volponi with Fappiano on the top (the most successful conduit to Mr. P when inbreeding to Mr. P) and a daughter of Mr. P on the bottom. Additionally, Bill Lathrop (Bill from Wa) has assigned her a very nice conduit mare profile for stamina. Good decision, Steve. 
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Stevie Belmont
- Allowance Winner
- Posts: 398
- Joined: Wed Jul 19, 2006 6:56 am
- Location: Meadowlands
- Contact:
You have to have an opinion, actually hearing all the carp all week from all those guys did not change my mind at all. I went with who I though was the best horse. I have to admit, after BB the rest were wide, wide open....
Im also thankful I was able to realize that Eight Belles should be on all my tickets, so I ammended my original comments on here...Too bad she broke down, but from the betting perspective here numbers were right there...
Here is the worst story of the day for me...
About an hour before the race I was diddling with some super plays in the Derby. Keying Big Brown on top and spreading with the 3rd and 4th spot with the slow closers.
I wrote down a play.
20/2,5,6,9,10,14,17/2,4,10,16,14,17/2,4,8,14,16,17
I did not play it...
The super was 58,ooo
I would have had it for a buck..
My Derby theory on betting held true again, key the horse you like in the top spot and spread well, especially in the 3rd and 4th spot.
I have a sour taste in my mouth, but I still did ok overall
Congrats to anyone who had it, my work for the past 3 months paid off. I went with the best horse in the race...and he won..
For him to win from post 20 is an amazing feat..
I said from the start, if you read any of my posts, he would get the distance, non issue..He galloped out like a champ in the Florida Derby.
Im also thankful I was able to realize that Eight Belles should be on all my tickets, so I ammended my original comments on here...Too bad she broke down, but from the betting perspective here numbers were right there...
Here is the worst story of the day for me...
About an hour before the race I was diddling with some super plays in the Derby. Keying Big Brown on top and spreading with the 3rd and 4th spot with the slow closers.
I wrote down a play.
20/2,5,6,9,10,14,17/2,4,10,16,14,17/2,4,8,14,16,17
I did not play it...
The super was 58,ooo
I would have had it for a buck..
My Derby theory on betting held true again, key the horse you like in the top spot and spread well, especially in the 3rd and 4th spot.
I have a sour taste in my mouth, but I still did ok overall
Congrats to anyone who had it, my work for the past 3 months paid off. I went with the best horse in the race...and he won..
For him to win from post 20 is an amazing feat..
I said from the start, if you read any of my posts, he would get the distance, non issue..He galloped out like a champ in the Florida Derby.