122

[Bast]

Since most 2 year olds are already carrying 118-120 now, a shift from 120 to 122 means absolutely nothing to 3 year olds. If this new Unsolved Mystery (where's Captain Kirk) you just found out about held any water, I think the drf's would have already been all over it. 122 hmmm???

How many two-year-olds are running nine furlongs with 122 lbs?

~

Ya' know, I was a wonderin' the same thing, how could I have been the only one to see it. I thought it was fun . . . what was interesting about it, when I first saw the pattern, I posted the past performances and waited for about a week to see if anyone else would see the same pattern - no one saw it. I checked some other forums, no one mentioned it. I took the time to read what most everyone else had to say about the Derby, not one word linking weight with the loss pattern.

When it comes to the Derby, most everyone that is anyone is concerned about pedigree and distance . . . weight, for the most part, is overlooked. I wasn't lookin' for it either, I was only trying to understand why so many favorites lost their Derby prep. I don't believe anyone else was concerned with that question.

Well, To Honor and Serve won last year's Remsen Stakes carrying 120 pounds. He was in fact the topweight.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?BORP=P&STYLE=EQB&DAY=D&tid=AQU&dt=11/27/2010&ctry=USA&race=7

[Terrapin Flyer]

3 races where the entire field of 2 year olds carry 122, the logic of this thread leads us to belive that anyone of these horses should be able to beat any horse on the Derby trail carrying 122 for the first time since all these horses carried 122 already.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... USA&race=7

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... CAN&race=8

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... CAN&race=8

[Whirlaway]

3 races where the entire field of 2 year olds carry 122, the logic of this thread leads us to belive that anyone of these horses should be able to beat any horse on the Derby trail carrying 122 for the first time since all these horses carried 122 already.

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... USA&race=7

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... CAN&race=8

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... CAN&race=8

" . . . the logic of this thread leads us to believe that anyone of these horses should be able to beat any horse on the Derby trail carrying 122 for the first time since all these horses carried 122 already."

Where ya' get that idea? Take the time to reread my first post.

[TJ]

Isn't the old handicap formula, 1 lb = 1 length at the finish line?

But I suppose this doesn't matter if everybody goes off at the same weight.

Hi X,
That is the old formula and it is still used in assigning weights in Handicap Races today. When all the horses run in a race such as the derby where everyone carries the same weight it still matters what weight was carried when these horses met before under other weight conditions. They may be racing even weights today but the last time they met horses A won and carried 117 lbs and horse B finished 2nd beaten by 1 and carried 122. If they come into the derby under equal weights horse B could turn the tables because he will recieve a 5 lb weigh shift in his direction over 1 1/4 miles. TJ

But nothing like Ta Wee --Dr Fager's half sister-- winning with 142 pounds, however when the Highweight had some truly high weights...

Nobody runs real handicap races anymore. How long has it been since we had a highweight carrying 132-136 pounds and the longshot assigned 110? The highweights today carry about 124.

Hi Bast,
I guess you didn't read what I wrote....I explained all that and the how and why handicap races became the way they are today.....but we still do get to see a glimpse of the way it was in the Fall Highweight....last 5 winners carried 132, 130, 136 (Fabulous Strike), 129 and 129....but seldom in distance races today :>) TJ

Once upon a time, Dr Fager's half sister Ta Wee won it with 142 pounds...

Hi Bast,
Yes, Ta Wee won that race twice, once as a 3YO (1969) and then again as a 4YO (1970). The highest impost any horse carried in the Fall Highweight was 140lbs....that was the maximum weight assigned. The race you are thinking of was the 1970 Interboro Handicap in which she was assigned 142lbs as she held safe Hitting Away for the win. In fairness to Ta Wee, when winning the Fall Highweight under 140lbs. considering the weight allowance for filly's she carried the highest impost. TJ

[TJ]

The more I think about these posts and the fact that many feel weight has no effect on horses I find it quite bizarre. I'm a simple guy, I'm a blue collar type with a lot of common sense to help me through when need be. I've seen first hand the effect weight has on race horses and how it is compounded ten fold over a distance of ground and track conditions....you get the occaisional few that can carry weight as if it didn't bother them....but they are rare horses and you'd probably not want to see them the following day knocked out in their stall. If nothing else, put a one pound weight boot on each of your feet and take a walk over a mile, then take a run over a mile, then go to the beach and do the same thing near the shore.....then do it away from the shore and tell me weight has no effect on your energy and performance level. It's common sense. In racing here and in Europe....weight has been used as a handicap to try to give every horse a fair chance. I know we have some real smart people in this forum and a couple are posting to this thread. I found something that I would like for x-factor, shammy and Bast to look over and tell me if this report....which is over my head in theory, but not in practical application in my lifetime with race horses......let me know if what is shown here holds water and if he is right or wrong about his assumptions? Don't let me stop any other's who have a comment concerning this and also the ability to understand the charts and graphs. Thanks, TJ
http://www.eccnet.com/fourwinds/horse/weighthorse2.html

[Whirlaway]

Congratulations, I believe you have found the link that may lead to the winner of this running of the Kentucky Derby - fine piece of research.

Now we all know this is hoss' racin' and anything can happen and the numbers on the paper don't mean a rats ass on a hill of beans, but like a bloodhound onto the scent of weights, I ain't gonna let this one go till I can find the horse best able to carry the 126 pounds the farthest - I believe that may be the key, along with a couple of other critical parameter factors.

Now mind you I ain't no mathematician but I have read the post several times and have a clear understanding of the principles put forth by the author. Allow me some time to follow the trail, I need to relate the principles to the past performance numbers and I'll have somethin' to post soon enough. No doubt others may be workin' on this too.

[TJ]

Congratulations, I believe you have found the link that may lead to the winner of this running of the Kentucky Derby - fine piece of research.

Now we all know this is hoss' racin' and anything can happen and the numbers on the paper don't mean a rats ass on a hill of beans, but like a bloodhound onto the scent of weights, I ain't gonna let this one go till I can find the horse best able to carry the 126 pounds the farthest - I believe that may be the key, along with a couple of other critical parameter factors.

Now mind you I ain't no mathematician but I have read the post several times and have a clear understanding of the principles put forth by the author. Allow me some time to follow the trail, I need to relate the principles to the past performance numbers and I'll have somethin' to post soon enough. No doubt others may be workin' on this too.

Hi Whirl,
That's gonna be a lot of work....if you start now you might finish in time for the Derby:>) TJ

[Bast]

Horses aren't machines.

3 y o colts in May are not mature, and they are not the same creatures they were the previous autumn or past February. They are growing and changing, and we hope acquiring some degree of fitness.

Think of it this way: can a 19 year old kid do things a 13 year old cannot?

[TJ]

I thought we were talking about weight here? TJ

[Bast]

I thought we were talking about weight here? TJ

We still are.

It's not a stretch to believe that TBs 4 year olds and up--the ages most serious handicap horses formerly competed at--are stronger than 2 and 3 years, and more capable of carrying weight.

When you are talking about 3 y os, you're talking about a group for whom their foaling date still matters in determining their development. A late May foal will be at a disadvantage (generally) compared to a January foal. I would also think that all else being equal, a January foal could carry weight better than a late May foal.

[Whirlaway]

I'm workin' on it and w/a little help from some friends, I think I'm gonna figure this.


Here is an easy equation so we can calculate the length[s]and some additional information that explains part of what we are seeing in the past performances . . .

An old rule of thumb is that 15/(distance in furlongs) in lbs = 1 length.
So over 5 furlongs, 3lbs = 1 length, and over 10 furlongs, 3 lbs = 2 lengths.

A horse carrying a bigger weight doesn't only have to work harder to maintain speed, it's also a bit more likely to have a bad trip (-> it takes a fraction longer to hit top speed at the start that may force it to stalk rather than lead, the horse takes a fraction longer to move into an opening that disappears again, etc). The original effect is perhaps small, but the nature of horse racing seems to magnify that small effect considerably.

Information provided by gm10.

[Bast]

I'm workin' on it and w/a little help from some friends, I think I'm gonna figure this.


Here is an easy equation so we can calculate the length[s]and some additional information that explains part of what we are seeing in the past performances . . .

An old rule of thumb is that 15/(distance in furlongs) in lbs = 1 length.
So over 5 furlongs, 3lbs = 1 length, and over 10 furlongs, 3 lbs = 2 lengths.

A horse carrying a bigger weight doesn't only have to work harder to maintain speed, it's also a bit more likely to have a bad trip (-> it takes a fraction longer to hit top speed at the start that may force it to stalk rather than lead, the horse takes a fraction longer to move into an opening that disappears again, etc). The original effect is perhaps small, but the nature of horse racing seems to magnify that small effect considerably.

Information provided by gm10.

Keep in mind that those weight rules are based on mature or nearly mature horses running against each other. A few decades ago, the 3 y o races were the opening course of the TB feast--the best horses were around to race at 4 and 5 in handicap races, real handicap races with serious lead on the backs of the best runners.

[Whirlaway]

Bast,

For goodness sakes woman, how bout' you stop flappin' your gums and let that trainer and me to keep on a tryin' to figure this thing out? If you got something constructive to add than add it, if not hows bout' you do your gum flappin' in the mirror!

[Bast]

Bast,

For goodness sakes woman, how bout' you stop flappin' your gums and let that trainer and me to keep on a tryin' to figure this thing out? If you got something constructive to add than add it, if not hows bout' you do your gum flappin' in the mirror!

When all else fails, the FAILING turn to ridicule.

[Whirlaway]

There you go . . . flappin' them gums again! And I'm not trying to ridicule, just don't need the unnecessary gum flappin' while we're workin' on this handicappin'.

We're not failing, we havin' fun!