Bast wrote:Bodemeister isn't going to go the front and cruise with Trinniberg in the race.
This reminds me of the 2007 derby in the sense of in my mind there was no question that curlin was the best pure race horse. what concerned me is he was so good in his 3 races, his talent kept him out of trouble. He could go 6 wide and keep dirt out of his face and just blow by inferior horses. My handicapping then wasn't what it was now but in retrospect the second he got that 2 hole I should have tossed him. He had no realistic chance to win that race with the little experience and bad post position. j
IMHO that was the brilliance of what dutrow did in the 08 derby he took the 20 post. he knew his horse was 10 lengths better than anything in the race so what if i lose some from the post keep him out of trouble he isn't getting beat even if i go wide.
That was the first time he had really just been roughed up in a race and he still ran a bang up 3rd considering the trip he got.
I would not be shocked if BM won because I think he is a very good horse, I just don't think it's going to happen becuase he is going to have too much to overcome and his last race made him look like a superhorse and while he has a lot of talent, he's not a superhorse, yet.
I dont' think he is going to get the lead, and if he does get the lead he's going to get cooked. If he doesn't get the lead and he's in the inside I don't think he will be able to handle the extremely rough trip he's going to get. IF he doesn't get the lead and he's on the outside he's going to have to travel very far to win the race and is going to have to sit off really good horses and is going to have to fight off even better horse coming to get him in the stretch.
The ONLY way I can see him winning is him getting the 8-12 post, most of the speed is inside of him and he can sit off of it and make a move in the turn. That's a lot of if's.
