Heidilady wrote:I started to hit all the points I felt there was error what have you and just got disgusted with the length of the post. It's clear to me that while there are solid elements in your argument Sam, you clearly will continue to make false assumptions and demonstrate flaws in an argument that could be valid if you did it well. If I were to argue your point, I'm convinced I could do it better. The thing is my point isn't diametrically opposed to yours, it's a different one entirely. Sorry you couldn't see that. I refuse to write an ironclad 5 page paper on the subject.
Saying you can counter my argument and then failing to do so is a coward's way out, Heidi.
Please point out to me what you feel are "false assumptions".
And if you feel I am so stupid, please clearly define what your point is.
It appears to be that you think LITF has a very good chance at HOY based on the 'human emotion' involved. I'm saying he doesn't. Luckily, most voters use their head and not their heart when voting.
LITF does/will not have the race record to win the 3yo title. Period. At least not in a year with a dual classic winner. If he's lucky he will have 2 G1s (only one of which will be against older horses) to his credit. Based on historical FACT .. that is not enough to win him the 3yo title, let alone the HOY title.
Your other point appears to be (after wrongly assuming I backed Ghostzapper) that Jones was denied a HOY title based on resentment to his early retirement. Total speculation on your (as well as my) part, but I would strongly disagree with that based on the voting numbers ... if the vote was closer than 2-1 (IOW, had he lost by maybe 15-20 votes instead of the ass whooping he got), I might be inclined to agree with you. I will never believe that 'resentment' cost him well over 60 votes. I can only hope that most of the voters just aren't that petty. If I'm wrong and there really are that many petty people in control of the Eclipse votes, I'd prefer to remain in the dark.
Heidilady wrote:Sam as far as dual classic winners trumping a sprint specialist and a less important female...two words, War Emblem. Azeri was an older horse sure but they went with a mare instead of the 3yo champ with 3 G1s and a G2 romp, two of which were the Derby and Preakness.
"Less important"?
Storm Flag Flying is a "less important" female (a 2yo filly who dominated her division in 4 starts at 3 different tracks, but was, alas, merely a 2yo filly .. essentially being two strikes against her) .. Azeri, the year she was HOY was anything but.
Azeri (at 8 wins -- 7 stakes including 5 G1s at 5 different tracks -- from 9 starts with 1 second) was the stand out "other" candidate needed in a season where the Older Horse and 3yo champs were anything but "inspiring".
Do you remember who the older horse winner was that year, let alone the competition for the title? How about any of the other winners?
Azeri was the unanimous winner in her division with an outstanding record.
Left Bank (the CH. Older Horse that year) won by default and only barely did that as he only beat Volponi by 20 votes (79 vs 59) with at least 5 other horses getting votes (Street Cry getting almost 40 and Evening Attire garnering 27). I say "at least" because there were 16 votes cast that year for horses other than Left Bank, Volponi, Street Cry and Evening Attire .. but no mention made of who those horses were.
As it is Left Bank, IMO, is a very questionable winner. He went 3 for 4, but only one of those was at something longer than 7 furlongs. A lot of people that year were inclined to give the title to Volponi .. something I whole-heartedly could NOT agree with as he had a losing record for the year.
In fact, that year is yet another example of how the voters will not give an age title and a specialist title to one horse unless he is a truly phenomenal horse. IMO, Orientate should have had the older horse title .. He had a winning record (6 for 10 with 2 G1s including the BC Sprint) that was comparable to Left Banks .. but poor Orientate was only a sprinter without a single win past 6.5 furlongs.
BTW, Orientate was practically a unanimous winner for the Sprinter title with 220 votes versus Xtra Heat's 4, Left Bank's/Gygistar and Kalookan Queen's 1 vote each.
The 3yo division wasn't much better.
War Emblem got the title because he did the bare minimum .. he was a dual classic winner. Never mind that he lost as many races as he won that season (5 for 10) and lost them BADLY. If he didn't win, he didn't place at all (his 'best loss' being a 5th place finish in the LeComte). So he met the minimal standard set for getting 3yo title (just as Risen Star, Charismatic, Funny Cide and Afleet Alex did) and won with 169 votes.
Medaglia d'Oro, who was all promise and no delivery -- finishing 2002 with a losing record of 4 for 9 with a sole G1 and 2 G2s to his credit -- won a paltry 29 votes.
Came Home (the only horse of the three to have a WINNING record for the season -- 6 for 8 -- AND a win against his elders in G1 competition -- the Pac Classic -- in addition to a second G1 win as well as a G2 and a G3) garnered 21 votes with 7 "Other" votes being cast for someone other than those 3. But again, Came Home only had the lone G1 win against his elders .. had he been able to win the Classic, he most likely would have been the 3yo champ that year over War Emblem.
The Older Horse division that year fell apart. As did the 3yo colts. Neither division winner was worthy of being HOY .. so they went to the next logical choice -- Older Mare. Just as they did with Lady's Secret.
And the dual classic winner DID "trump" the sprint specialist that year, so you cited a poor example
War Emblem received 12 votes for HOY (the highest number behind Azeri's 189). Left Bank received 7 and Orientate received far less than that (I won't say none as there were 10 "Other" votes cast .. so he probably got 2-3 of those)
