Rock Hard Ten

[Playwithfire]

OK, maybe "easily" was an overstatement. But I do think Alex would have the edge at 7f plus.

Here are LITF's closing fractions (final 3/8 ) in his 7f races.

Swale 37-2
Bay Shore 35-4
Riva Ridge 37-0
Kings Bishop 38-0

In LitF's defense, he did win each of those races easily with the exception of the Riva Ridge. So did he have any more in the tank to close quicker if he so desired? Maybe, maybe not.(Baze said he was gassed in the Kings bishop). Either way, I think that a fit and ready Afleet Alex would make a good race vs. Lost in the Fog at 7F. Depending on how the race set up I could imagine either horse winning.

His best distance of course is 6F, and I don't believe Alex would be able to beat him at this distance, surely not in this year's BC Sprint. Lost in the Fog is at the top of his game right now, and Afleet Alex has had one timed workout since having 2 months off. It would seem like alot to ask of AA trying to come back with relatively few works/recent races and try to win either the Sprint or Classic. I say if he did either of those feats he would be a super horse. Maybe he already is in shape, he did run a fast workout so far.

Perhaps they'll meet at the track some day as both are expected to race as 4yos I think.

[FOS]

hi guys

Austique wrote (regarding Afleet Alex) "No stud deal is in the works according to Zachney now. Wonder if they're not getting what they think they should on that front?"

I expect that they're dreaming about numbers similar to those reported re: Smarty Jones last year. I suggest that right now those kind of numbers will not happen (reportedly 1/2 of Smarty Jones was done based on 30 shares valued at $650k per...equaling $19.5 mil).

Consider this...Afleet Alex is by Northern Afleet (by Afleet), a wonderful young sire but arguably NOT a household name, or particularly highly regarded (with the exception of some who believed in him) until Alex arrived on the scene. Another possible concern and/or stumbling block (from a buyer's perspective anyway) might be the fact that AA's first, second and third dams are by Hawkster (1st), Hawaii (2nd) and Sensitivo (3rd).

All Things Considered...I expect that an Alex deal (for the whole horse...not 1/2) could probably happen now based on $22 mil+- (or somewhere in that vicinity). Team Alex might believe their colt is worth a whole lot more than that...as a result it might be fair to say that Team Alex is hoping to heap on some more accomplishments (maybe leading to Horse of the Year honors) in an effort to drive Alex's stallion-appeal up up up...with the expectation that possible 'deal' numbers would increase also (as a result).

I wish AA and his connections good luck and hope Alex gets the job done...without compromising his well-being. He is a wonderful horse.

Respectfully

[austique]

FOS,

According to Thoroughbred Times you are right on the money with offers ranging around $18-$20 million. I'm assuming they want more than that because last week it was "a stud deal is imminent" and now its "no stud deal is in the works, but we're taking calls". It'll be interesting to see where he ends up. A smaller farm looking to make a big splash might be willing to go higher.

[FOS]

hi austique

On the one hand, I might guess that Team Alex really believes that their dual classic-winner will come back to the races and pick up where he left off. I suggest that if they didn't feel that way, a stallion deal would most likely have been done by now.

On the other hand, even if he doesn't ultimately make it back...at least by galloping and occasionally working Afleet Alex now, he attracts the media (for obvious reasons)...and his name stays on the front-burner. It's probably fair to say that Team Alex wants to keep their dual-classic winner in the spotlight (as long as they can) unless and until a deal is actually done.

One thing's for sure...this industry can be fickle, and a sense of what have you done for me lately could kick in.

Right now...it's all talk from the Alex camp...and no one (including Team Alex) really knows for sure if Alex can or will come back and race and win at the highest level...that's yet to be seen. Right now it's all speculation.

If he does come back big...Alex will have certainly answered the question...what have you done for me lately?...and at the same time enhanced his appeal (and arguably his value) as a stallion prospect.

That being said...my experience is that the best time to make a deal (at least from a seller's perspective) is when the bloom is on the flower. The bloom might actually be wilting now, at least to some extent, and will probably continue to do so unless Alex makes a sensational comeback...and picks up where he left off. If that occurs, arguably the bloom will be bigger and brighter than ever.

Bottom line (from my perspective anyway)...Team Alex is gambling now...but reality is they're gambling with house money. The gamble might pay off...bigger than what the payoff might be if they made a deal today. It's their call and their horse.

Good luck to Afleet Alex and his connections, but the market seems to have spoken and indicated what Alex might be worth to willing buyers today. Apparently Team Alex has not made a deal yet, for whatever reasons, and seems willing to take some risks (in search of more money and/or a better deal).

I only hope that Afleet Alex doesn't suffer any consequences.

Respectfully

[louis finochio]

If AA is 100 % his people will run him in the BC, If he is not then I hope they wont run AA, as he has all of 06 to display his talents.

Wehn AA does return he will come back better that he left. As AA is bigger, stronger, and faster as he is still growing.

If AA doesnt run the rest of 05 and is not voted HOY, AA will come back in 06 and dominate his foes, as AA is the best Ive seen in many moons.

[FOS]

hi louis finochio

You have great confidence in Afleet Alex...he is a VERY good one.

It seems like his injury (and recovery) is being somewhat downplayed though. You might agree that racing and winning at the highest level rarely leaves room for even a hiccup.

I hope Alex gets back to the races at 100%, but honestly, I won't believe it until I see .

Respectfully