Bandini's Back

[halo]

Reese,

I was talking about the sire's from his female family his female family (i.e. Demon's Begone, Pine Bluff). His dam was highly regarded visiting the courts of Forty Niner (twice), Mr. Prospector (3 times), Unbridled, and Seeking the Gold, yet she managed 2 winners, FuPeg who was talented and a Forty Niner who managed to break his maiden and earn $6,000+. She's had one other starter who managed to earn $3,000+ after finishing unplaced 3 times and all the rest including a 3yo are unraced. The mare was no superstar not that a stallion needs a superstar dam to be a top sire, but it helps. The sales prices of her foals is irrelevant to the equation of FuPeg's success or lack thereof.

Someone really needs to handwalk me thru this theory that stallions need to come from sire producing families. What other good sires are in Storm Cats immediate family? Deputy Minister? Danzig? Marias Mon is on fire now, check his family. Unbridled Song, wheres the stallions in his family? Seems to me someone just made this up and now everyone runs with it.

[Nerd]

FuPeg and his get are a bunch of crazy dudes. Don't know about Old Thunder though... I saw him a couple weeks ago and he didn't seem to be all that nutso. I sure hope he moves forward.


I actually think Coolmore did the right thing (from a $$$-maximizing standpoint) in starting out with a crazy-huge book. Because of FuPeg's popularity, the market could handle the 200+ x $125k fee.

They are in the bloodstock business. They have *got* to know that such a fee is not sustainable unless the progeny are worth it. Reality check: chances are the progeny won't be worth it, no matter how high quality the book of mares. In this scenario, the market value of his stud fee will decrease once he gets a few crops. Since this scenario is almost infinitely more likely than the 'we have the next Storm Cat' scenario, if they are at all economically reasonable they will milk the situation for all it's worth. And besides, more foals => more chances of 'the big horse' early on to keep the fee up there.

Sure, this makes FuPeg less of a commodity 10 years down the line, but if they had started out with a limited book, Coolmore would still be stuck with a lousy sire, minus the cash they could have racked in. And since tragedy can strike at any time in the horse business, $$$ today can be something to think pretty hard about.

[austique]

Halo,

I don't think I said at any point he needed to come from a sire producing family (which he does his dam being a full sister to the underrated Pine Bluff and a half to good regional sire Demon's Begone). History has shown that the family can get a professional sire and history was what you had to go on when he went to stud. You also had his dam's produce which also not a killer (mentioned before), but it gives some indication of family traits which may be passed on. The one thing that jumps out in his family. "They don't look very sound"

But all the history matters not now as FuPeg is a big boy and has to stand on his own now and at $125,000 he's on shaky ground.

[Eap]

Reese,

I was talking about the sire's from his female family his female family (i.e. Demon's Begone, Pine Bluff). His dam was highly regarded visiting the courts of Forty Niner (twice), Mr. Prospector (3 times), Unbridled, and Seeking the Gold, yet she managed 2 winners, FuPeg who was talented and a Forty Niner who managed to break his maiden and earn $6,000+. She's had one other starter who managed to earn $3,000+ after finishing unplaced 3 times and all the rest including a 3yo are unraced. The mare was no superstar not that a stallion needs a superstar dam to be a top sire, but it helps. The sales prices of her foals is irrelevant to the equation of FuPeg's success or lack thereof.

Someone really needs to handwalk me thru this theory that stallions need to come from sire producing families. What other good sires are in Storm Cats immediate family? Deputy Minister? Danzig? Marias Mon is on fire now, check his family. Unbridled Song, wheres the stallions in his family? Seems to me someone just made this up and now everyone runs with it.

Halo, normally agree with your opinions... this one I dont. I do think family history plays a role in the sire department. Sometimes a little further back, but often still is there.

Storm Cat-- Royal Academy, Pioneering and Wheaton are both useful, as were Encino and Pancho Villa. More importantly, the family is in the Cherokee Rose clan.

Deputy Minister-- Family of Exclusive Native, Out of Place, General Assembly (not the best example, I freely admit but useful just the same), Gold Fever, etc.

Unbridled's Song comes from a strong family, one that had every right to produce a good stallion prospect.

With Maria's Mon and Danzig... you're absolutely right. Who would have thunk it? Not me. No tells in their pedigree. But hell, if this game was a 100% anyway, we'd all have just sold a 16mil dollar two year old.

I guess my point is, you cant ignore a family who has repeatedly thrown good to great stallions. It would be foolish not to take that into consideration. I do think there's a trend with certain families and some out produce others with their ability to throw stallions. Almahmoud and Soaring families are good examples.

[halo]

I don't think there is a stallion in the world that you couldnt make an argument for as being from a good family. Saying that Deputy Minister comes from good family is a serious stretch. Unbridleds Song has good family, but I couldnt find a good sire anywhere to be found. So the spin will continue, Fu Peg will be a bust because his female family is so weak; then when he produces a Triple Crown winner, his family will be strong because he comes from the sire producing family of solid/unspectacular/underrated (you pick which term you want) Pine Bluff and Demons Begone.

[Sam]

Fu Peg will be a bust because his female family is so weak; then when he produces a Triple Crown winner

BWAHAHAHAHAHA



wipes tears from my eyes

Thanks, I needed that.

[sunday_silence]

I don't think there is a stallion in the world that you couldnt make an argument for as being from a good family. Saying that Deputy Minister comes from good family is a serious stretch. Unbridleds Song has good family, but I couldnt find a good sire anywhere to be found. So the spin will continue, Fu Peg will be a bust because his female family is so weak; then when he produces a Triple Crown winner, his family will be strong because he comes from the sire producing family of solid/unspectacular/underrated (you pick which term you want) Pine Bluff and Demons Begone.

Huh??

[austique]

Um yeah...

Coolmore...I call shenanagins!

[Sam]

I don't think there is a stallion in the world that you couldnt make an argument for as being from a good family. Saying that Deputy Minister comes from good family is a serious stretch. Unbridleds Song has good family, but I couldnt find a good sire anywhere to be found. So the spin will continue, Fu Peg will be a bust because his female family is so weak; then when he produces a Triple Crown winner, his family will be strong because he comes from the sire producing family of solid/unspectacular/underrated (you pick which term you want) Pine Bluff and Demons Begone.

Huh??

I think what Halo keeps missing is it's not that FuPeg is a "bust" as a stallion. It's that AT HIS CURRENT STUD FEE, he is a LOUSY stallion choice unless you are a strict commercial breeder. He hasn't done a damn thing that justifies his stud fee and he's a bad bet as far as his foal percentages go. He has SERIOUS quality issues.

It's his STUD FEE that makes him a 'bust', not his numbers. His numbers on a $15k-$45k stallion wouldn't be that bad.

[Nerd]

I think halo was also suggesting that how we interpret the quality of his family depends on what our current opinion of him is.

[kimberley mine]

To Nerd, Sam, and Halo: I respectfully submit that interpreting the quality of a proven (or at least working on it) sire with the "quality" of a damline is irrelevant. Look at Plugged Nickle! I think we can all agree that he comes from a sparkling female family, yet his foals didn't outrun their shadows on a moonless night.

Were FuPeg a completely unproven sire, I can see it. At this point, it is an interesting sidenote but not THE main focus.

With both FuPeg and Giant's Causeway, Coolmore is going for the commercial home run. Giant's Causeway is being spun as the heir apparent to Storm Cat and at his current fee is challenging the physically troubled Kingmambo for the cream of the turf mares. At his initial fee of $125k, Fu Peg was (IMHO) a direct challenge to another Mr Prospector son, Gone West. Both have a long way to go (Kingmambo and Gone West), but while GC may eventually get there, FuPeg is looking more and more like he will not. I'm with Sam; there are far better racehorse AND commercial options than FuPeg.

[dray33]

I miss Broad Brush.

[Ill-bred]

Good post Kimberly about the "heir apparents."

Dray, I am excited to see how the Include babies run the next few years.

[FOS]

hi kimberley mine

Giant's Causeway is being spun as the heir apparent to Storm Cat...

The key word is SPUN .

...and at his current fee (Giant's Causeway) is challenging the physically troubled Kingmambo for the cream of the turf mares.

The reality is that in 2005 the Darley and Shadwell crews started using Elusive Quality...NOT Giant's Causeway...in the absence of Kingmambo's availability.

Respectfully

[kimberley mine]

FOS--I'm not sure if I made myself clear. In the Coolmore spin game, it seems the only reason to pick that particular number was to take Kingmambo head-on. Whether he gets Kingmambo's mares at that fee or not is not the question.

Unsurprising that Darley and Shadwell would support Darley's stallion and not a Coolmore stallion, given The Boycott.