Discreet Cat - Overated?

[Pete]

Hi Rokeby,

Anytime you think that having sires in the family is a pre-requisite for success in the breeding shed, take a look at Danzig's pedigree because he's the poster boy for no pedigree.

Fast milers are wildely regarded as excellent stallion prospects. Having soundness issues hasn't affected the appeal or careers of Danzig, Mr. Prospector, Forestry, Ghostzapper, Fusaichi Pegasus and many many others.

If Discreet Cat went to stud today with a G1 mile in 1:32.2, three Beyers of 112 or more in a row and having won his first six races I see his fee at @$75,000 (I assume that his share price would be @>$500,000). I'd never use him but that's where I believe they'd set his fee. I do think we may have seen the last of him at the track and that's unfortunate.

Regards,

Pete

[CA Michael]

For years I kind of blindly subscribed to the popular theory that good stallions only came from good stallion producing families. I have since seen too many deviations from that "rule" to put much credence in it. After all, Forestry hasn't done too badly, and he's closely related to the big flop SEWICKLEY. Bold Ruler didn't have any good sires in his female family, nor did Seattle Slew or Mr. Prospector, until a number of generations had passed. Ditto Danzig.

Horses like IN EXCESS, MEMO, and CEE'S TIZZY (three of California's best) don't have a good sire within earshot of their third dams. Any number of other examples would be easy to list.

If a good stallion is present, so much the better. But I don't add or subtract much if there isn't one.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hello, Gents!

Pete: At least Danzig was by Northern Dancer. As I asked, what sons of Forestry are out there at stud that make DC a prospect solely based on his sire's side? As for Danzig, Northern Dancer was one of the VERY FEW sires to have unaccomplished sons have great success at stud. Will Forestry turn out to be that kind of "sire of sires?"

Michael: Think about that $22 Million that was paid for Spectacular Bid - based on race record, how could he NOT be a great sire? But...if you could have found a sire in that family back then, I would have booked for you a honeymoon suite with a 39 year old Racquel Welsh waiting for you.

As for Forestry not faring "too badly," I don't think anyone can "knock" the quality of books he's been given. If you look at racetrack results (earnings) and the fact that he has only three Grade 1 winners (and no repeat Grade 1 winners), I'd say he's been an overrated flop - excluding The Green Monkey, who I'm starting to have my doubts about as far as Graded earnings for the KY Derby. Just my humble opinion.

Respectfully (stealing this from FOS),

Rokeby Forever

[Pete]

Hi Rokeby,

You're mixing apples and oranges.

Northern Dancer and a stakes winning dam were the reasons that Danzig got a shot at stud but he was also supported by his owner to accomplish this.

Spectacular Bid wasn't a special sire but he was an incomparable race horse. He deserved every chance at stud and for the most part got it. In hindsight his sire line (Bold Ruler) was in decline except for the better diversified Bold Reason branch. Secretariat was afflicted with the decline of his sire line like Bid was. If you had told people in 1975 that Bold Ruler's sire line would fade except for the Bold Reason branch they would have had you committed. Same thing happened to Nasrullah, Teddy, etc.

You need to remember that people that pay a lot of money for sons of Storm Cat have the specific intention of having them become sires and they will do whatever they can to maintain or polish his image to protect their interests. Forestry has been beautifully managed by Taylor Made - like them or not. Whether Forestry's performance as a sire should support a $125,000 fee is not the question as long as people will spend a lot of money for his foals. The expectation has to be that they (sons) will also become sires of note.

I look at these things from a distance. I can make my judgments about whether Forestry or any other stallion is worth their fee but any opinion that he's not worth that fee is made in the face of a commercial market that still supports him. In a sense it's like analyzing a stock, some are bullish and some bearish but while there are more bulls the value increases.

Regards,

Pete

[Pete]

Hi Michael,

Excellent insight and I think this is an excellent topic that should have its' own thread.

My experience mirrors yours. The blind adherence to stallion pedigree simply isn't supported by fact. Sire lines rise and they fall along with their related blood affinities while female families become disparate or they coalesce. Rich pedigrees are a commercial tool to sell stallion prospects but the real elements that are impacting are generally ignored in our industry.

Perhaps more to follow.

Regards,

Pete

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Pete,

First off.....I HATE when you write things I can't argue with. Grrrr!!!!

From what I've been told, it was Woody Stephens that did quite a selling job on getting Claiborne to stand Danzig. Claiborne had no interest in lightly raced, unproven horses standing stud (except for Drone, whom I understand Mr Hancock just loved), and had Mr Stephens not been so persistent, Danzig may well have stood in China. His initial stud fee ($10,000, I believe) wasn't a ringing endorsement, so Danzig really had to earn his status the hard way...(no pun intended).

As I've discussed with Michael CA, Secretariat was the victim of miscalculation. It was realized only to late that he wasn't going to be a miler "type" sire and he needed a speedier type mare (except for Ribbon) in order to have any success. Like Michael once wrote, when Canadian Bound was foaled, what did people expect? A horse that needed 3 miles was bred and that's what the owner got. Secretariat has been a tremendous broodie sire, which he figured to be based on the strength of his mares and their families - even Alysheba has turned out to be a pretty good broodie sire for the same reason.

As far as getting $125,000 for Forestry, hats off to Taylor Made. While his foals averaging $300,000 or so in the ring justify the fee, his best "full time" American son as far as earnings has been Old Forester - I think if you were to ask Bill Mott, "What do you think of Old Forester as a stallion prospect?," you might get a headshake and that's about it.

What may be more important than a long list of sires produced by a dam's family is that the dam's family has dams in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th generation that were legitimate racehorses. My half-assed experience is that when you see a bunch of maidens or non-descript winners as 3rd, 4th, and 5th dams on the female side, that sire won't have a great amount of success. There are surely exceptions to this, as there are with everything, but that's my story...and I'm stickin' to it!

Of course, many other factors go into making a sire successful, depending on the definition of "success." Getting 180 mares a year might be a measure of success, but when a sire is bred to everything including Mr Ed's sister and his overall numbers stink because of it, or he happens to get a few successful progeny just because of sheer numbers (ala Johannesburg, among most Coolmore/Ashford sires), that's not a measure of success, in my humble opinion.

Very respectfully, (FOS never writes, "very" - LOL!),
Rokeby Forever

[halo]

Michael, I wouldn't have expected you to make that statement.

In Discreet Cat's entire female family, do you see any sires that have been produced? There's some old Rokeby blood around his 3rd or 4th dam, but what in there says "sire" to you? Does Forestry even have any sons at stud?

Plus, this horse's entire career has been gapped. When has he ever held together? This horse was once the favorite for the KY Derby. What happened? Does this horse ring of durability and soundness?

Yes, he's fast...but looking beyond that, what makes you conclude he's sire material?

Ive got 2 words for you.....Deputy Minister. Talk about a light stallion pedigree. Had he gone to stud now, Im sure FOS would have had a field day ripping him for his broodmare sire Bunty's Flight. Not only was he a sire of the utmost class, he's also a sire of sires, and a broodmare sire also. Ever since his and Danzig's success, Ive been far more forgiving of a horse's dam line in looking at sire prospects. Discreet Cat has plenty of page to enable him a legitimate chance as a stallion. Far more than either Deputy Minister or even Danzig had. His dam is a grade 1 winner, what else could one want?

[louis finochio]

Bunty Lawless started 47 times and his sire ladder made 44 starts. E.P> Taylor bred to soundness not fashion, as the evidence of those BMS New Providence, Bull Page and Chop Chop.

Today we are seeing those fashion breeders breed for the sales toppers, not soundness. Deputy Minister is a welcome edition to the soundness ranks as a leading BMS. Amen.

[Sysonby]

Michael, I wouldn't have expected you to make that statement.

In Discreet Cat's entire female family, do you see any sires that have been produced? There's some old Rokeby blood around his 3rd or 4th dam, but what in there says "sire" to you? Does Forestry even have any sons at stud?

Plus, this horse's entire career has been gapped. When has he ever held together? This horse was once the favorite for the KY Derby. What happened? Does this horse ring of durability and soundness?

Yes, he's fast...but looking beyond that, what makes you conclude he's sire material?

Ive got 2 words for you.....Deputy Minister. Talk about a light stallion pedigree. Had he gone to stud now, Im sure FOS would have had a field day ripping him for his broodmare sire Bunty's Flight. Not only was he a sire of the utmost class, he's also a sire of sires, and a broodmare sire also. Ever since his and Danzig's success, Ive been far more forgiving of a horse's dam line in looking at sire prospects. Discreet Cat has plenty of page to enable him a legitimate chance as a stallion. Far more than either Deputy Minister or even Danzig had. His dam is a grade 1 winner, what else could one want?

Deputy Minister is probably the best broodmare sire and sire of broodmare sires in the last decade and may well rival Mr Prospector in this regard in time. Just this year, Deputy Minister is 4th on Bloodhorse's list last week, and son's French Deputy, Silver Deputy, and Salt Lake are 54, 87 and 90 respectively despite being some of the youngest horses on that list. (French Deputy was born in '92 and is the only horse born in the 90's on the entire list.) Dehere, another horse born in the 90s is also showing promise.

[Maven]

While I agree you dont *need* to see a sire produced by the immediate family for a prospect to be successful at stud, Deputy Minister's family doesnt fit that mold.

His 3rd dam, Grass Shack, is a half to the bluehen Exclusive who was the dam of leading sire Exclusive Native. She's also the ancestress of Out of Place, American Chance, Saarland, etc.

While I completely agree with what Halo is saying, I would not have used Deputy Minister as the example, other than the fact he's as complete an outcross as a Northern Dancer line stallion can be and at first glance, the pedigree is lighter than it really is but the class is still there, especially if you believe in female family... family over individual.

[Rokeby Forever]

I forget the member that wrote, "Breeding is not an exact science," but truer words were never spoken.

I can't think of a sire in the modern era that had a stronger female family than Easy Goer. You'll see lots of stakes winners, stakes winning dams, and even La Troienne as a 5th or 6th dam. (I think Easy Goer was actually inbred 6X6 to La Troienne...or something like that). Let's also not forget that Easy Goer also ran a 1:33 mile in his career. (The Gotham, I believe).

Someone on perhaps another thread wrote that the Alydar line had great expectations, and that Benchmark has done a good job of living up to them. Well, who wouldn't have been "high" on Easy Goer as a sire when you look at the family of Relaxing and the speed that Easy Goer had? I'm not quite sure why Easy Goer wasn't able to live up to those expectations...perhaps the mare selection for him was totally wrong, or his comformation didn't make for him becoming a good sire?

In my humble opinion, Easy Goer was a more talented racehorse than Discreet Cat. He lacked the "push button" acceleration of Discreet Cat, but when Easy Goer was in full stride, he was a faster horse and one much more capable of running distances longer than a 1 1/8th mile.

Easy Goer contradicts my earlier statement that strong female families produce the best sires...but there are exceptions to every rule. As for Danzig, Deputy Minister, and the like...let's just conclude that ANYTHING in the late 1970s and early 1980s that had Northern Dancer on top had a chance to be a top sire. I don't think the same is true today unless there's a strong female family. Certainly, Storm Cat, Giant's Causeway, Royal Academy, Hennessey, Stormy Atlantic, and Pure Prize all do.

[Maven]

Actually, my own personal preference, very few La Troienne lines scream "sire makers" to me. You cant argue the class of La Troienne, but she's so ubiquitous, sheer numbers work in her favor.

Its never a bad thing to be tail-female to La Troienne, but it doesnt make me think "great chance as a stallion". And often, these tail-female representatives of her are bred to the nines, but again, if the pedigree structure isnt right, it means nothing.

In fact, I think some of the less heralded branches of La Troienne have proven the more consistent and better stallion producers-- Regal Gleam, Busanda, and Never Hula.

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Maven,

I'm not quite sure how you can call the Busanda branch "less heralded" when Buckpasser is such an important part of Phipps Breeding.

Busanda will appear in the Dance Number family (Rhythm, among others), as well as Numbered Account (Private Account), Con Game (Seeking The Gold), Heavenly Prize (Pure Prize), and so many others. Where would the Phipps breeding program be without Buckpasser/Busanda? All those blue hens...what do they all seem to have? And now, My Flag and Storm Flag Flying carry Buckpasser/Busanda, as well - and even Pleasant Home does, through Seeking the Gold.

Again, Busanda, who was NO slouch in her day, will appear as 3rd/4th dam in several of the most successful Phipps homebreds. Does that help support my theory that successful sires have strong 3rd/4th/5th dams?

[Rokeby Forever]

Hi Maven,

I'm not quite sure how you can call the Busanda branch "less heralded" when Buckpasser is such an important part of Phipps Breeding.

Busanda will appear in the Dance Number family (Rhythm, among others), as well as Numbered Account (Private Account), Con Game (Seeking The Gold), Heavenly Prize (Pure Prize), and so many others. Where would the Phipps breeding program be without Buckpasser/Busanda? All those blue hens...what do they all seem to have? And now, My Flag and Storm Flag Flying carry Buckpasser/Busanda, as well - and even Pleasant Home does, through Seeking the Gold.

The Phipps family, even with all their mares with Buckpasser, have never supported the Hail To Reason line. I never understood why not, especially since they breed to race...or they did until old man Phillps died.

Again, Busanda, who was NO slouch in her day, will appear as 3rd/4th dam in several of the most successful Phipps homebreds. Does that help support my theory that successful sires have strong 3rd/4th/5th dams?

[louis finochio]

The leading BMS that excell as a BMS only and not sire of sires like Alleged, Vaguely Noble, Buckpasser, etc, are usually from a female family that is dominant in producing BMS rather than sires.

When you reasearch those female family's you will find those female families that came from those of the same, especially those stallions that are inbred 3 X 4 to those foundation mares like Somethingroyal.

Round Table was a better BMS than a sire of sires, as its family over the individual that determines the outcome of the same.