Who Is Gonna Win The Derby?

[madelyn]

Did Teuflesberg draw in??

GO STREET SENSE!!

[serenarider]

Did Teuflesberg draw in??

Yes he did!

[Rokeby Forever]

Did Olympic Chief make it in?

[serenarider]

Did Olympic Chief make it in?

No he did not.

Here is who made it in.

1. Storm in May (Tiger Ridge), Juan Leyva, Bill Kaplan;

2. Teuflesberg (Johannesburg), Stewart Elliott, Jamie Sanders;

3. Hard Spun (Danzig), Mario Pino, Larry Jones;

4. Liquidity (Tiznow), David Flores; Doug O’Neill;

5. Bwana Bull (Holy Bull), Javier Castellano, Jerry Hollendorfer;

6. Street Sense (Street Cry), Calvin Borel, Carl Nafzger;

7. Cowtown Cat (Distorted Humor), Fernando Jara, Todd Pletcher;

8. Scat Daddy (Johannesburg), Edgar Prado, Todd Pletcher;

9. Imawildandcrazyguy (Wild Event), Mark Guidry, Bill Kaplan;

10. Zanjero (Cherokee Run), Shaun Bridgmohan, Steve Asmussen;

11. Tiago (Pleasant Tap), Mike Smith, John Shirreffs;

12. Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch), John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher;

13. Sam P. (Cat Thief), Ramon Dominguez, Todd Pletcher;

14. Nobiz Like Shobiz (Albert the Great), Cornelio Velazquez, Barclay Tagg;

15. Stormello (Stormy Atlantic), Kent Desormeaux, Bill Currin;

16. Curlin (Smart Strike), Robby Albarado, Steve Asmussen;

17. Sedgefield (Smart Strike), Julien Leparoux, Darrin Miller;

18. Any Given Saturday (Distorted Humor), Garrett Gomez, Todd Pletcher;

19. Great Hunter (Aptitude), Corey Nakatani, Doug O’Neill; and

20. Dominican (El Corredor), Rafael Bejarano, Darrin Miller.

[Rokeby Forever]

Shucks! LOL!

[Toccet02]

Shucks! LOL!

What's up with him, Roke, that you hate him so?
3X3 to Storm cat?

[madelyn]

Wasn't Olympic Chief the horse that made his very first start in some really huge race and was chased home by the water truck?

[Toccet02]

Oh boy. Wish I had my DRF replay sub still so I could see THAT . . .
I once fell in love with a filly who finished a race at a smart trot.
I've never seen a jockey so embarassed. She was out to see and be seen....racing never entered her mind, I don't think.

[geowarrior]

Toccet, Bloodhorse.com has replays available of all the triple crown prep. races if you want to see Olympic Chief come last in the Arkansas Derby which was won by Curlin. It's all free.

[RavenSuesMom1]

NO WONDER!

Yeah sometimes.

The bad thing is - on the free side of youbet - I keep making $500 on bets on the the real thing, I never pick winners

[geowarrior]

Is anyone going to change his/her selection now that the post positions have been announced? I'm wondering about Great Hunter, who got post position 20.

[Rokeby Forever]

Olympic Chief did about as well in his debut as did Rick's Natural Star in the BC Turf.

Why shouldn't people like that Great Hunter was selected Post #20? Doug O'Neill finished his statement by saying, "We're happy with it." That's the same guy that took Lava Man to Dubai, though...

[Des]

Nobiz Like Shobiz
Circular Quay


Cowtown Cat is my longshot

[jagger]

Well, my favorite pre post position was Great Hunter I really don't think anybody can win from there. Anyone know who won the Derby from the highest post position? So, I'm now going with

Hard Spun
Street Sense
Tiago

Long Shot Liquidity

Will do some more number crunching and may change my mind in the next few days though.

[jagger]

Have done some initial number crunching. Takes into account dosage points, GSV, Conduit mare profile, chefs, reines, chefs and reines in the first 2 generations, mares with stakes winners in the first 2 generations and punishes mares with no earnings in the first 2 generations and a few other things. Here is how it turns out.

Sedgefield 145
Curlin 140
Zanjero 134
Storm in May 143
Imawildandcrazyguy 115
Cowtown Cat 129
Street Sense 135
Hard Spun 178
Liquidity 113
Teuflesberg 119
Bwana Bull 136
Nobiz like Shobiz 136
Sam P. 124
Scat Daddy 128
Tiago 158
Circular Quay 135
Stormello 140
Any Given Saturday 136
Dominican 121
Great Hunter 136

Using these numbers I will eliminate those with <130. Dominican, Scat Daddy, Sam P., Teuflesberg, Liquidity, Cowtown Cat, Imawildandcrazyguy (Thank goodness). I will try to eliminate a few more but this really is an excellent group. Much better than last year.