No, I wasn't kidding. I don't believe there will be a full field (20 horses). That is EXACTLY what I said because that is EXACTLY what I mean.
It may DRAW a full 20, but I don't think it will be the top 20 on the list nor do I think they will all start. I think at least 2 from the top 20 will decide against it last minute and anticipate at least 1 scratch (possibly 2) after the draw.
Graded Earnings Leaders and Thoughts on the Derby
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Easy Goer wrote:of course it wont draw the top 20; we've already established that by looking at the scratches already....So you think 1 or 2 will scratch after the draw? That's all your saying really. How often does that happen?
This is the top 20 I'm referring to after already taking out the ones we know of (I dismissed Like Now even before the Lex, I knew he wouldn't go).
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro
Bob and John
Sinister Minister
Private Vow
A.P. Warrior
Sweetnorthernsaint
Sharp Humor
Bluegrass Cat
Steppenwolfer
Keyed Entry
Showing Up
Point Determined
Cause to Believe
Deputy Glitters
Storm Treasure
Jazil
Seaside Retreat
Flashy Bull
I fully expect to hear Showing Up (he's hurt and owned by the same people who own Barbaro. There's no way in hell this colt beats Barbaro with only two weeks rest) and Seaside Retreat decide not to go. I'm about 50-50 thinking that Storm Treasure and Keyed Entry's people will decide against running as well. 30-70 that Private Vow backs out.
That opens up at least two holes which gets Sunriver and Sacred Light in. Except I really don't think Sacred Light WOULD go even if he could. Below Sacred Light, the only horse I really think would like to be there is Strong Contender, but I think they know he's short and wouldn't give his best effort.
If all of those horses come out and Sunriver and Strong Contender are the only two that fill empty spots, that's 17 horses. Instinctively, I've a feeling AP Warrior comes out after the draw with some ailment.
And to the question of how often a horse gets scratched after the draw ... just about every year. Additionally, before last year, the last time there were 20 horses in the race was 1984. There's been a few years that have drawn 20, all had at least one scratch (the most recent in my memory was that BS game Baffert played back in '02 when he put Danthebluegrassman in the race to keep someone else out, then scratched him the day of the race). People seem to forget there were only 13 in the field when Silver Charm won.
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StrawberryFelidos
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SO, let me see if I can get this right:
Pace Setters:
Sinister Minister
Sharp Humor
Brother Derek
Keyed Entry
Pace Setter/ Stalker:
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro
Pace Stalkers:
Point Determined
Private Vow
Sweetnorthernsaint
Bob and John
Deputy Glitters
Bluegrass Cat
Midpack:
Showing Up
A.P. Warrior
Flashy Bull
Closers:
Cause to Believe
Steppenwolfer
Jazil
Storm Treasure
Seaside Retreat
Not as many pace setters as I thought there would be, but plenty of stalkers
Pace Setters:
Sinister Minister
Sharp Humor
Brother Derek
Keyed Entry
Pace Setter/ Stalker:
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro
Pace Stalkers:
Point Determined
Private Vow
Sweetnorthernsaint
Bob and John
Deputy Glitters
Bluegrass Cat
Midpack:
Showing Up
A.P. Warrior
Flashy Bull
Closers:
Cause to Believe
Steppenwolfer
Jazil
Storm Treasure
Seaside Retreat
Not as many pace setters as I thought there would be, but plenty of stalkers
Last edited by StrawberryFelidos on Tue Apr 25, 2006 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sam,
With all due respect I think you're getting logic (and yes, nice logic) confused with what's probably the case with Derby fever. Of course logically Seaside Retreat and Storm Treasure,etc might not merit running, whatever they actually accomplish in the race. Seaside Retreat is, correct me if I'm wrong, Farish owned and I expect him to hold pretty tight to running his only horse unless a really lackluster work comes up. Should they run him? Don't really think they ought to expect to win but hey, Derby fever. I was gonna cover the other horses you mentioned and the reasons why they're more likely than not to at least enter but I figure it takes up too much room and I repeat myself.
I absolutely think more than 20 will sign up and it's possible that a few will drop out after the draw. Wire to Wire showed 20 with 3 left over (Sunriver, Sacred Light, and Malameeze). The whole 'keeping another horse out' angle only works if you're afraid one of them could beat your other horse. Why do the other owners/trainers a favor? It'd have to be a 2 or 3 entry package to warrant keeping one in temporarily. Who're they trying to keep out at this point? Sunriver, Sacred Light, and Malameeze with Strong Contender in the shadows probably and unlikely. Like I said Lewis Michael's folks indicated they'd like to go if it opened up.
So let's look at the multiple entries. Feel free to mention it if I missed one but I think I caught'em. We have what? Baffert with 3: Point Determined, Bob and John, and Sinister Minister. All 3 have done things to merit consideration and SM's folks wanna go so I expect all 3 to enter and run.
Asmussen's got an improving (though possibly overmatched if not improved enough) Private Vow and then Storm Treasure. ST's got owners with the fever and I don't think they'd let Asmussen use him as a throwaway like that. Private Vow, if he's really getting more like the lovely PV we all used to know, should run. If they're not sure he's ready, he could drop but he's got more class than at least some of these horses going. It's really a seasoning issue there and we'll know soon.
Pletcher has Bluegrass Cat and Keyed Entry. Whether he should or not, I expect Keyed Entry to run and figure Bluegrass Cat probably shouldn't but hey, they're determined to send him it looks like.
Kieran McLaughlin has Flashy Bull and Jazil. Both talented horses that everyone's wary of given the pace scenario this year. They will probably both go and FB is probably in at #20.
Bob Holthus probably won't send Red Raymond cuz he wants the Iowa Derby for him and he's got Lawyer Ron.
So I think Pletcher and Asmussen are the ones you'd look at as trying to keep out the horses on the bubble and since Pletcher wants Sunriver in, if he did pull out before entry it'd help, oh yeah, him. So it's not really to keep out another horse that he'd be staying in. Why would he put a lesser horse in the race so one of his own couldn't run? Either way I'd expect him to keep 2 horses in minimum, Keyed Entry probably the first to go. I expect Asmussen would be the one keeping another horse out and Storm Treasure's probably the one he'd use to manipulate the situation but really I don't think he's that threatened by Sacred Light or Malameeze. I might be misjudging Asmussen but I don't think he'd pull out both horses either. Fever's too great and he has at least one owner wanting to go. Strong Contender's so far back that you'd have to have one of the multiple entries pull all horses out for him to have a shot and I maybe don't give owners enough credit but I think the ones that say they're going plan to go. AP Warrior's just good enough on his good day to merit a trip but heaven help us if the bad APW shows up. I think they're banking on his A game.
With all due respect I think you're getting logic (and yes, nice logic) confused with what's probably the case with Derby fever. Of course logically Seaside Retreat and Storm Treasure,etc might not merit running, whatever they actually accomplish in the race. Seaside Retreat is, correct me if I'm wrong, Farish owned and I expect him to hold pretty tight to running his only horse unless a really lackluster work comes up. Should they run him? Don't really think they ought to expect to win but hey, Derby fever. I was gonna cover the other horses you mentioned and the reasons why they're more likely than not to at least enter but I figure it takes up too much room and I repeat myself.
I absolutely think more than 20 will sign up and it's possible that a few will drop out after the draw. Wire to Wire showed 20 with 3 left over (Sunriver, Sacred Light, and Malameeze). The whole 'keeping another horse out' angle only works if you're afraid one of them could beat your other horse. Why do the other owners/trainers a favor? It'd have to be a 2 or 3 entry package to warrant keeping one in temporarily. Who're they trying to keep out at this point? Sunriver, Sacred Light, and Malameeze with Strong Contender in the shadows probably and unlikely. Like I said Lewis Michael's folks indicated they'd like to go if it opened up.
So let's look at the multiple entries. Feel free to mention it if I missed one but I think I caught'em. We have what? Baffert with 3: Point Determined, Bob and John, and Sinister Minister. All 3 have done things to merit consideration and SM's folks wanna go so I expect all 3 to enter and run.
Asmussen's got an improving (though possibly overmatched if not improved enough) Private Vow and then Storm Treasure. ST's got owners with the fever and I don't think they'd let Asmussen use him as a throwaway like that. Private Vow, if he's really getting more like the lovely PV we all used to know, should run. If they're not sure he's ready, he could drop but he's got more class than at least some of these horses going. It's really a seasoning issue there and we'll know soon.
Pletcher has Bluegrass Cat and Keyed Entry. Whether he should or not, I expect Keyed Entry to run and figure Bluegrass Cat probably shouldn't but hey, they're determined to send him it looks like.
Kieran McLaughlin has Flashy Bull and Jazil. Both talented horses that everyone's wary of given the pace scenario this year. They will probably both go and FB is probably in at #20.
Bob Holthus probably won't send Red Raymond cuz he wants the Iowa Derby for him and he's got Lawyer Ron.
So I think Pletcher and Asmussen are the ones you'd look at as trying to keep out the horses on the bubble and since Pletcher wants Sunriver in, if he did pull out before entry it'd help, oh yeah, him. So it's not really to keep out another horse that he'd be staying in. Why would he put a lesser horse in the race so one of his own couldn't run? Either way I'd expect him to keep 2 horses in minimum, Keyed Entry probably the first to go. I expect Asmussen would be the one keeping another horse out and Storm Treasure's probably the one he'd use to manipulate the situation but really I don't think he's that threatened by Sacred Light or Malameeze. I might be misjudging Asmussen but I don't think he'd pull out both horses either. Fever's too great and he has at least one owner wanting to go. Strong Contender's so far back that you'd have to have one of the multiple entries pull all horses out for him to have a shot and I maybe don't give owners enough credit but I think the ones that say they're going plan to go. AP Warrior's just good enough on his good day to merit a trip but heaven help us if the bad APW shows up. I think they're banking on his A game.
"Time flies like an arrow, fruit flies like a banana"
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StrawberryFelidos
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Romans just gave notice that his Sharp Humor is going to take the lead:
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33211
Now, I have all the respect in the world for Romans and Sharp Humor, but unless Sinister Minister breaks like crap Mr. Humor and Mr. Minister are going to roast each other like marshmallows
Two bunny rabbits... now that should be fun to watch!
I think Sharp Humor is the better horse in this, but Sinister Minister is an uncontrollable speed freak and his complete inability to rate makes him very dangerous for anyone who tries to go with him. I feel confidant that, at 1 1/4 miles, Sinister Minister can exhaust himself just fine- I think all you can do by trying to challenge that nut ball is burn yourself
If Sharp Humor can hold on after those fractions to win the roses, then he's one amazing freak. If Sinister Minister can survive, he's the most awesome nut ball of all time.
Fun Fun Stuff!
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=33211
Now, I have all the respect in the world for Romans and Sharp Humor, but unless Sinister Minister breaks like crap Mr. Humor and Mr. Minister are going to roast each other like marshmallows
Two bunny rabbits... now that should be fun to watch!
I think Sharp Humor is the better horse in this, but Sinister Minister is an uncontrollable speed freak and his complete inability to rate makes him very dangerous for anyone who tries to go with him. I feel confidant that, at 1 1/4 miles, Sinister Minister can exhaust himself just fine- I think all you can do by trying to challenge that nut ball is burn yourself
If Sharp Humor can hold on after those fractions to win the roses, then he's one amazing freak. If Sinister Minister can survive, he's the most awesome nut ball of all time.
Fun Fun Stuff!
I can see a full field being entered, but like Sam there will be scratches (probably 2 or 3) and I could see Showing Up entering and then scratching out. Keyed Entry (he's already got a rider committed) and Storm Treasure I think will enter. Private Vow you would hope would not because I think the AR Derby proved he's not ready for this at this juncture. Seaside Retreat should probably stay home, but probably won't. Sunriver you know is going if he can get in.
As for SF's list:
Id' move Deputy Glitters up to pacesetter/stalker (that is where he is at his best) and Sweetnorthernsaint's been on the gun in all but two of his starts and in one of those (Illinois Derby) he sat second. Lawyer Ron also prefers to be on the lead. Bob and John and Bluegrass Cat also like to be quite close.
I think the main issue is that there are a lot of horses who want to be second and since Showing Up and Sinister Minister have declared their intent to engage in a speed duel, none of those horse are going to be 2nd unless on of those two fall down. The question is how close will they sit to what is sure to be a Songandaprayer like pace.
Guesses on the opening half? I'm thinking 45 and change is within reach
As for SF's list:
Id' move Deputy Glitters up to pacesetter/stalker (that is where he is at his best) and Sweetnorthernsaint's been on the gun in all but two of his starts and in one of those (Illinois Derby) he sat second. Lawyer Ron also prefers to be on the lead. Bob and John and Bluegrass Cat also like to be quite close.
I think the main issue is that there are a lot of horses who want to be second and since Showing Up and Sinister Minister have declared their intent to engage in a speed duel, none of those horse are going to be 2nd unless on of those two fall down. The question is how close will they sit to what is sure to be a Songandaprayer like pace.
Guesses on the opening half? I'm thinking 45 and change is within reach
I don't have low self-esteem. I have low esteem for everyone else. ~ Daria
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StrawberryFelidos
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derby
Pleasant Colony was a tick over 45 I think and Spend A Buck might have been the quickest to the 3/4 pole @ 1:09 3/5. Just a guess. The important number, though, is who can run under 25 seconds for the last quarter. Probably noone in this group. They may run the first few fractions well but will all come staggering home in probably 2:02 or worse.
Bluegrass Cat or A.P. Warrior.
Bluegrass Cat or A.P. Warrior.
songandaprayer
Congratulations, Austique. SAAP holds the record.
The way to finish around 2:00 or better, though, is NOT to burn up the track in the first 3/4 mile. I think Big Red was around 1:11 but he did the last quarter in less than the first. First quarter in a leisurely 23 1/5 and the last quarter in a blazing 23 flat. Negative splits. A concept not embraced in thoroughbred horse racing. Five weeks later, his 3/4 time was 1:09 4/5 on the day that he averaged 24 seconds per quarter.
The way to finish around 2:00 or better, though, is NOT to burn up the track in the first 3/4 mile. I think Big Red was around 1:11 but he did the last quarter in less than the first. First quarter in a leisurely 23 1/5 and the last quarter in a blazing 23 flat. Negative splits. A concept not embraced in thoroughbred horse racing. Five weeks later, his 3/4 time was 1:09 4/5 on the day that he averaged 24 seconds per quarter.
Re: derby
jagger wrote: The important number, though, is who can run under 25 seconds for the last quarter. Probably noone in this group. They may run the first few fractions well but will all come staggering home in probably 2:02 or worse.
Errh excuse me. Jazil can very likely run a sub 25 final quarter. There are at least two others based on what they did at 9f.
Actually a 2:02 is pretty good depending on the condition of the track.
OH by the way. Wire to WIre today had that same listed I just posted above with Flashy at 20 and Sunriver at 21. So it looks like what I am finding on the internet at least agrees with a half way reputable source (Randy MOss/ESPN)
I dont get Sam. First he says the card wont fill. Then he says oh yeah it might fill but will definitely be scratches after the draw.
Now he says, it definitely wont fill. So which is it?
Personally I think Sacred Light's connections would love to have a go at it. I dont know what reason they would have not to go, horse had a good excuse last time out and was running 100 beyers or almost (98, 99)
I dont get Sam. First he says the card wont fill. Then he says oh yeah it might fill but will definitely be scratches after the draw.
Now he says, it definitely wont fill. So which is it?
Personally I think Sacred Light's connections would love to have a go at it. I dont know what reason they would have not to go, horse had a good excuse last time out and was running 100 beyers or almost (98, 99)