Kentucky Derby Top 12

[BJ]

Didn't know if anyone saw this ...

Reddam Seeks Court Protection for Great Hunter
http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=38168

[serenarider]

YIKES! That is one huge mess. i'm just hoping this dose not hold the colt back.

[geowarrior]

I think it'll be o.k. I really can't imagine that the amount of collateral for Great Hunter at the time the loan was taken out was very great, and if I read the article correctly, Great Hunter isn't even named specifically on the documentation presented by the bank. It seems to me that the bank is on a fishing expedition, and that his current owner has a strong case. Not that I'm a lawyer or anything, just going by what seems reasonable. Hmm, lawyer and reasonable in the same sentence...

[Keith]

Kentucky Derby Top 12

1. Curlin
2. Street Sense
3. Nobiz Like Shobiz
4. Great Hunter
5. Scat Daddy
6. Any Given Saturday
7. Circular Quay
8. Stormello
9. Notional
10. Cobalt Blue
11. Adore The Gold
12. Hard Spun


Keith

[Worksoplad]

1. Street Sense
2. Circular Quay
3. Great Hunter
4. Any Given Saturday
5. Nobiz Like Shobiz
6. Scat Daddy
7. Hard Spun
8. Stormello
9. Cobalt Blue
10 Summer Doldrums
11. Notional
12. Belgravia

[Stevie Belmont]

As of 4/1/07


1)(3)Scat Daddy- Scat Daddy takes over the number 1 spot after his Florida Derby win, although it could be temporary as the Wood Memorial is next week and the power packed Bluegrass Stakes coming up as well. Once again showed he can continue to get the job done in winning the 1 1/8 event in 1:49 flat. Still think he needs to improve further more. Very similar to his Fountain of Youth win. Based on those two victories has shown he has a nose for the winners circle, but the distance of a mile and a quarter could a bit daunting for this one. He was all out to hold off Notional and Chekolee. So far, he continues to win despite that concern.

2)(1)Nobiz Like Shobiz- Drops to the number 2 spot for the first time since we have had this going. The Wood Memorial is coming up for him. Blinkers are going to be added for the first time in an attempt to keep this horse focused on the task at hand. The talent is there, but must show that he has over come the issues that have plagued him in the stretch. Tagg has had time since the Fountain of Youth to work with him with the blinkers. Only seeing him run will be the best indicator if he has in fact moved in the right direction since the Fountain of Youth.

3)(4) Great Hunter- Moves up the number 3 spot. He ran a very nice race in winning the Bob Lewis in California on Saturday. He was four wide most of the trip and made a nice sweeping move to win the race. He has a very nice running style and he usually stalks before the attacking move. He is doing things very well at things quite well at this point. Horse has the right blend of stamina a speed. In addition, experience is another thing this one has, all positives for a horse that looks sharp right now. The top three are under some heavy heat with the next few and some of them could very well ranked higher, but that will sort itself out in time.

4)(5) Hard Spun- Connections opted to skip the Rebel at Oaklawn because the horse does not care for the surface, well he sure like the surface at Turfway Park. Hard Spun put together an impressive effort as he drew clear winning easy. The most impressive part about the win was the strong gallop out past the 1 ¼ mark, always a positive. Breaking from post 10, he just relaxed right off the pace and opened up as he turned for home. This horse pretty much just cruised until the stretch where he turned it on. Visually he was a good, as one would hope for at this stage of his development. Great looking colt will aim for the ultra competitive Bluegrass for his final prep before the Kentucky Derby. As a May foal there is still upside for even more improvement.

5(6) Any Given Saturday- Moves up one spot. Any Given Saturday ran a very solid race in just losing out to Street Sense. He has once again taken another step forward in his progression. He was a little wide in the Tampa Bay Derby when he took on Street Sense who was to his inside. Horse moves up the list where he debuted at number two. He galloped out after the Tampa Derby relatively well. The 1 1/8 Bluegrass and rematch with Street Sense looms. Horse has showed gameness in two nose loses to two of the top ranked 3 year olds in the country. Horse has upside and is battle tested. Still needs to stretch out as many others do to, so far so good.

6)(7) Street Sense- Moved up a spot since last week. Saying his 2007 debut was a success might be a bit of an understatement. He won the Tampa Bay Derby is bombastic style nosing out the ever-game Any Given Saturday in a stirring stretch battle. It was a huge effort off a 4-month layoff. He once again got a nice trip, but showed his ability digging in for the win, as he set a new course record at Tampa Bay Down. Any record at Tampa Bay has to be taken with a grain of salt, but nonetheless it is a record. Huge efforts off layoffs can be a detriment for a horse. Winning off that layoff against a horse like Any Given Saturday is not an easy task. This one has talent for sure. His next start is the Bluegrass in where he will meet Any Given Saturday again and Great Hunter in what should be a great race.

7) 8 Circular Quay- Another horse that moves up, showdown with Nobiz Like Shobiz coming up. This horse has had many excuses. The BC Juvy he was up against it and the Risen Star was a debacle for him, as he had to avoid fallen foes. At last in the Louisiana Derby that wonderful power kick I have liked from early on was on display as he put together one of the better efforts in any prep race so far this year. Buckled down, kicked clear, and won the Louisiana Derby. His stock is once again back up. Solid 2-year-old foundation for this guy. At this point is certainly a major contender again. Still has to prove he can be as effective running longer and there is no reason to think he will not be. His late running style could be problematic in a race like the Kentucky Derby. Dad won the Derby as well. The Wood Memorial is next.

8 (9)Notional- Picks up a spot off his show finish in the Florida Derby. Ran a pretty good second to Scat Daddy in the Florida Derby. He made a bid in the lane in an attempt to get to Scat Daddy, but ran out of real estate. He did run past Scat Daddy in the gallop out after the race. Graded earnings are more than enough to qualify for the Kentucky Derby and another step on the progression scale is not out of the question.

9)(10) Liquidity -He battled into contention in the Louisiana Derby before tiring and falling out of the race. Ran reasonably well, but took a step backwards at this point off the lack luster finish. Horse is coming off two hard fought races against Stormello and Ravel. Will need to show he can stay on going longer.

10)(2)Stormello- Stormello takes the biggest drop of any horse yet on this list. Down 8 spots to number 10. He showed his brilliant speed once again setting some snappy fractions in the Florida Derby, however faltered in the late stages of the 1 1/8 contest showing that getting the distance would be a bit much for this horse, and that is a big problem for a horse who intends to run and do well in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer has been very high on this colt from the beginning. So regardless of he would be able to get the distance or not, he may very well be Derby bound.

11)(-) King of the Roxy- Hutcheson Stake’s winner for Todd Pletcher on the FOY under card. Horse was 4 wide and drew clear to win the race with ease. Has raced well in the past and put it all together in the Hutcheson Stakes. Connections have opted to take their chances with him on the Derby trail. The Santa Anita Derby is a target.

12)(-) Curlin – Impressive Rebel winner. He was purchased for 3.5 million after his maiden breaker at Gulfstream and showed why. Horse has some talent as he won the Rebel drawing off for the win. Curlin wins maiden and than get the Grade III Rebel which is not an easy task. Lightly races colt is up against schedule wise for the Derby. That would be a tough task at this point. This horse has every right to continue to improve. The Preakness Stakes might be a viable option for owners that might take that route here. Still drifted a bit in the stretch, but corrected quickly.

Knocking on the Door- Bwana Bull big closing winner of the El Camino Derby, Dominican strong closing winner of the Rushaway Stakes on the Lanesend undercard, Law Breaker, Chelokee- Ran a good 3rd in the Florida Derby, but looks like graded earnings will be an issue, Cowtown Cat Gotham winner. Cobalt Blue sharp looking son of Golden Missile won the San Felipe is easy front running style, but a good-looking chestnut with potential. Song Of Navarone winner of the Winstar Derby.

Adore The Gold, Day Pass-Off the list

[Stevie Belmont]

I have decided to wait until after the Bluegrass Stakes next week to update the Kentucy Derby list.

[geowarrior]

Say it aint so, Stevie, I was waiting with baited breath for this week's instalment.

[Stevie Belmont]

Were ya?

Lets get this week over. I can see some big changes.....

Say it aint so, Stevie, I was waiting with baited breath for this week's instalment.

[hpkingjr]

What's the story on Darrin Miller the trainer of Dominican and Sedgefield?
I heard them interview him on TV and was impressed by his answers and humble manner. I look for Dominican to finish in the top two in the Bluegrass. I do not believe Street Sense will win the Bluegrass.

[geowarrior]

I was also impressed with Dominican's trainer. I especially like trainers who ride their horses. They seem to give a very different perspective than those who don't.

[jagger]

Pat,

Do you think Street Sense will not win the Bluegrass because he is nott the best horse in the race or that his effort will be less than 100%? I feel that Dominican is a worthy horse can capable of pulling the "upset" as well. Is Great Hunter running or not? I think if he does run that he will not be asked for a lot as well.

[hpkingjr]

My take after the 1:04 work is that the Bluegrass will be only a prep for the Derby and the goal will be to tighten him up without hurting him. Street Sense did not particularly like Keeneland last fall but it is a safe surface now. I believe they will try to repeat the plan that worked in the BC Juvenile.

I'm worried about the Great Hunter. Hopefully the issues are minor training issues. His pedigree suggests he will love the added distance.

[hpkingjr]

Sorry I hit the daily double.

[madelyn]

So? Who's coming to actually watch the race?

I guess the plan, since I am not risking a trip to the winner's circle, will be to dress warm and rub shoulders with the ordinary folk in the paddock, etc. And maybe head to Sweet Potatoes in Versailles for dinner after...