Graded Earnings Leaders and Thoughts on the Derby

[Heidilady]

Lukas just gave out his top 4 picks: Lawyer Ron, Sharp Humor, Sweetnorthernsaint and Brother Derek. Not sure if that's in any particular order.

I liked SH's run last time and SNS too. It's just so crazy how many horses I enjoy this time around. I love that Sinister Minister's so bullish and that Sharp Humor will go with him because they are both insanely fast. Did you hear what Baffert said? That War Emblem had a bit of controllability about him (he's kidding right?) but that Sinister Minister had absolutely none. Is that even possible to be more of a nut than War Emblem? Wow. With Sharp Humor committing it could keep things honest. I was afraid they'd all try to wait for someone else to go with SM and then no one would. You know, everyone declaring that they will go for the lead and then hanging back. We shall see.

So much easier to pick the horses we don't expect to do it but watch them be the only ones that hit the board--Murphy's Law.

[jagger]

Jazil is a very interesting horse and certainly seemed to be closing well in his last race but a 25 second or better last quarter would defy his conduit mare profile "stamina" number of 8 and 3rd triad of 11. Further, I think only 3 or maybe 4 horses in the last 25 years have run 25 seconds or better for the last quarter. One was the filly, I think. Only Secretariat of the 70's Triple Crown winners did. Is Jazil in this lofty company? I just don't think so. Also, he would have to lay off the anticipated very fast early fractions to have anything left in the tank to get 25 seconds or better.

[Easy Goer]

Then he's defying his conduit mare profile...

He apparently ran something like 24.8 in the slop in the Wood. I am still not sure of that but Randy Moss said he made up 20 lengths at the end. I do not have the chart on that, and I cannot see Jazil in the video at the 9f. THere could be a mistake in the chart call.

But he ran under 25 sec. two races back (3/18 ) and that is the one he bled in.

Running under 25 is very good for sure, but he doesnt have to run like Secretariat to win from behind. Carry Back ran something like a 25.5 closing into horses that were backing up. YOu can still make up a lot of ground with a 25 sec. fraction under the right circumstaces.

[Sam]

I dont get Sam. First he says the card wont fill. Then he says oh yeah it might fill but will definitely be scratches after the draw.

Now he says, it definitely wont fill. So which is it?

She ... and you need to go back and reread exactly what I said.

I did NOT say the 'card won't fill'.

I said I do not expect a full gate (meaning 20 horses) at the start of the race.

I said it MAY draw 20, but that I do not expect it to be the top 20 by earnings nor do I expect every horse entered to actually start.

Seems like a pretty simple concept to me. There are 20 slots to fill in the gate, but I do not expect 20 to actually run the race -- regardless of whether it pulled 20 entries or not.

If you aren't getting it, I really don't know how much clearer to say it.

[Easy Goer]

Here is the gist of what you said that sounds somewhat off the wall:

"That opens up at least two holes which gets Sunriver and Sacred Light in. Except I really don't think Sacred Light WOULD go even if he could. Below Sacred Light, the only horse I really think would like to be there is Strong Contender, but I think they know he's short and wouldn't give his best effort.

If all of those horses come out and Sunriver and Strong Contender are the only two that fill empty spots, that's 17 horses."

So do you think it likely that only 17 horses will be drawing for spots? Is this what you are saying? Or is this some remote possibility? Because you seem to keep changing it.

[Easy Goer]

Here's the other part dont get:

I said it MAY draw 20, but that I do not expect it to be the top 20 by earnings nor do I expect every horse entered to actually start.

Seems like a pretty simple concept to me....

If you aren't getting it, I really don't know how much clearer to say it.

Frankly you are not being very clear. It is one thing to say a) you dont expect the top 20 of the current earnings list to make the field; and quite another to say b) it wont fill with 20 before the draw.

For example, there could be horses like Hemmingways Key that fill out the field prior to the draw. That would meet your a) but not b).

It is really really hard to understand which of these two possibilities you are suggesting. I think this is why you got the reaction to your posts that you did. I was not the only one to bring this up.

[Sam]

blink

Well first off, you just completely changed the post. I was in the process of trying to figure out why you were talking about Too Much Bling and Discreet Cat when neither of them are in that list of 20 AS IT STANDS NOW WITH ALL CURRENT DEFECTIONS.

You don't seem to be following along and I really don't know how you are getting lost.

Do you understand the concept of a hypothetical and a person's projected opinion?

What is so hard for you to get? I ... ME... MY PERSONAL OPINION is that the CURRENT TOP 20 ... these 20 horses...

Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro
Bob and John
Sinister Minister
Private Vow
A.P. Warrior
Sweetnorthernsaint
Sharp Humor
Bluegrass Cat
Steppenwolfer
Keyed Entry
Showing Up
Point Determined
Cause to Believe
Deputy Glitters
Storm Treasure
Jazil
Seaside Retreat
Flashy Bull

... will NOT be the 20 (IF 20) that decide to ultimately enter.

That at least 2 and may be as many as 5 of those horses will decided not to enter at some point. That would open as many as 5 holes for others to fill. Those 'others' would obviously come from OUTSIDE the current top 20.

IF all 5 of the horses I think are on the fence to defect do drop out, I do not think there are 5 horses that will take their place. At most I think there are 2-3.

Basically what I'm saying (and DID say) is that anyone -- INCLUDING THOSE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE TOP 20 -- will probably get in because I do NOT see this race being oversubscribed. I do not think you are going to have 21 horses trying for 20 spots.

Once you pass that point, I think there will be an additional defection (a scratch) AFTER entries are drawn.

Was THAT clear enough?

[Sam]

Here's the other part dont get:

I said it MAY draw 20, but that I do not expect it to be the top 20 by earnings nor do I expect every horse entered to actually start.

Frankly you are not being very clear.

Maybe to you because you are trying to read something that isn't there.

It is one thing to say a) you dont expect the top 20 of the current earnings list to make the field; and quite another to say b) it wont fill with 20 before the draw.

First off I didn't say I don't expect the top 20 to make the field. I said I do not expect the first 20 to be the 20 that decide to go and you're right, that's because they are two completely separate statements that have the same result = LESS THAN 20 HORSES START THE RACE.

My comment was "I don't expect a full gate" ... that did NOT say "I don't expect it to DRAW A FULL FIELD OF 20" That said "I don't expect a full gate" with no clarification, meaning either 20 horses are not entered OR someone scratches out after the entries so there are less than 20.

Anyone who wants in will get in because I don't expect the race to oversubscribe.

For example, there could be horses like Hemmingways Key that fill out the field prior to the draw. That would meet your a) but not b).

Wrong. If 5 of the current 20 defect and ONLY Hemingway's Key decided to take one of those vacant spots, the race doesn't get the top 20 current earnings horses AND it doesn't draw a full 20 entries.

It is really really hard to understand which of these two possibilities you are suggesting.

Both. They are not mutually exclusive. Both could happen, one or the either could happen, neither could happen.

I could be wrong and the current 20 all decide to go.

I could be right and only 18 of the first 20 decide to go and no one below Flashy Bull takes an open spot (meaning 18 in the gate).

I could be right and only 15 of the first 20 go plus an additional 3 from the next 5 (meaning 18 in the gate).

I could be right and 20 horses enter but 2 scratch out (meaning 18 in the gate).

Those are all hypothetical numbers. I am NOT saying I think there will only be 18 (or 17 or whatever) horses in the race. I am saying I THINK (me, my personal opinion) there will be less than 20 who ultimately start the race.

This is as simple as I can make my position:

1) I do not believe the race will be oversubscribed (there will not be 23 horses entered for 20 spots).

2) I do not believe the CURRENT list of 20 will be the list of 20 entered (IF in fact 20 are entered at all).

3) I do not believe 20 horses will actually start the race.

I really don't know how to make those three sentences any clearer for you to understand. If you don't get it, there's nothing I can say that will make you get it.

[jagger]

Easy Goer,

Jazil DID run a very nice race in The Wood and he probably did make up 20 lengths and he may have run a 25 second last 1/4 BUT it was a mile and 1/8. So he is not exactly defying his pedigree - yet. Time will tell if he has that much left at the end of a mile and 1/4.

How many days 'til post?

[jagger]

Sinister Minister is the biggest question mark for me. With 10 Dosage points and an anemic 61+ GSV and nothing especially compelling in his conduit mare profile, his performance in The Bluegrass was astounding. I have to think that he will not be able to make the additional distance though.

[zinn21]

Sinister Minister and a few others ought to ensure a torrid pace. The race should start falling apart about mid far turn, then the closers take over. I expect Laywer Ron to sit and pounce at mid far turn. We'll see if he can hold off the late runners.

Concerning Sam's post-you all need to take him with a grain of salt. He like many others who lurk behind the keyboard take great pleasure posting words that ruffle feathers. He's like Dr. House of the series "House" but lacks the writers/writing (or perhaps mental) skills to engage us. Instead he annoys us.

[Easy Goer]

well I think I understand him now and I did change one of my last posts. I had to edit it because I understand now that he means the top 20 of the current list will not fill up the card for the draw.

I really didnt find that to be much of a big deal because that seems to happen every year. What would be more suprising is if they dont get 20 into the draw.

I would have to think that is a very remote possibility.

[StrawberryFelidos]

I really hope that Sacred Light gets into the field, for no other reason than I was impressed that he got back up and kept chugging after the Santa Anita dirt-to-nose episode. Plus, he's damn gorgeous. But the current 20 only have a week left to start dropping and opening spots (and by dropping, I do not mean in a With a City way ). Seaside Retreat's workout should tell if he's in or he's out- my guess is he's in.

Did the Churchill people ever take that "other eligible" list into consideration? I remember in 2004, when Rock Hard Ten could've gotten in after the scratch of one or two horses post-draw, there was a lot of talk about that damn list. Now there's not a whisper- and I'll bet Sacred Light's owners will be regretting that when a couple scratches occur post-draw (I can feel it in my blood- somebody's scratching this year, but hopefully not in a Sir Cherokee way). Plus, there's always that "filling the gate with a useless horse and then scratching the day before" tactic to prevent a good entry from challenging- which just pisses me off.

[Sam]

Concerning Sam's post-you all need to take him with a grain of salt. He like many others who lurk behind the keyboard take great pleasure posting words that ruffle feathers.

Once again .. SHE. And trust me, I'm no keyboard koward. I post my opinion and don't really give a damn if it ruffles your feathers or not. If you can't understand plain english, that's your problem.

[Sam]

I really didnt find that to be much of a big deal because that seems to happen every year. What would be more suprising is if they dont get 20 into the draw.

I would have to think that is a very remote possibility.

Why? There've been quite a few years in recent times that didn't pull 20. If more than 5 of the current 20 pull out before the draw, it's too late for some to go in because they would have already adjusted their training assuming they won't get in. I 5 pull out, I just don't think there are 5 in the wings to go in. Not with less than 2 weeks to the race.