Who Is Gonna Win The Derby?

[Toccet02]

yeah, I don't want to go near Hard Spun after that work.
Although he does have a helluva pedigree.

[Rokeby Forever]

Toccett read the Funnycide book to get an account of Barclay Tagg going postal over the media at Churchill. there, the main problem may be allowing the horses their normal rest. big probolem maybe.

Rokeby: everyone of these modern trainers would have us believe the :59 breezes are sufficient preparation including Wayne (I don't work horses) Lukas. To me, of course it's ridiculous to think a horse would be conditioned for 1.25 miles with a series of 5f breezes. and truthfully, in past derby's what do we see but maybe one or two actually running all the way to the wire.

BUT, this year's training Pletcher's horses have looked very conditioned--Scatt Daddy in Florida etc. Nafzger from the reports is throwing in two mile gallops and two minute works. im an interested observer. witholding judgement. my concern is the move from the soft track to the hard, the :59 training and some resulting catastrophe.

Rapid: I agree with everything you've said, but I'd like to make one point.

Pletcher's stock does look well conditioned, as it usually does...but for how far are they conditioned? If they're wound up to run well for only a mile, that's as far as we're going to see them in the TV picture.

Barbaro had interval training between the Florida Derby and KY Derby, and exploded the last 1/4 mile. All the other entrants that trained to run a mile, ran a mile...clunkup horses got 2nd, 3rd, and 4th - everyone else was gasping for air. It was no different with Giacomo...look how that race fell apart after a mile with a super-slow last quarter. Afleet Alex was interval trained...he didn't win the Derby because of bad racing luck, but he wasn't even breathing hard after the Preakness and Belmont.

Here's something interesting: Who's the ONLY entrant from all the BC 2006 races that galloped two miles every morning for a straight week before the race?

Give up? Round Pond.

[Toccet02]

yeah, but she just fractured her knee!

[Rokeby Forever]

Yeah, she did. Hmm....

State of the art breeding, Toccet - Round Pond busted a knee and she was sent to Storm Cat, who throws offset knees. The foal should be named "Knee Pads" LOL!

[Toccet02]

Well, I certainly don't know if the two are related. (Round Pond's long gallops and knee injury)
It makes sense to train for stamina, so I applaud the long jogs,
and I would HOPE that if she did something way back when, they would have detected it.
But as I know from my own sports injuries (I would so totally be retired if I was a TB), one injury, even VERY old, can cause compensation to occur, which can cause problems in turn.
A badly wrenched ankle when I was 4 led to me serious flexibility problems when I was 30! Which was the first year I used certain machines at the gym like elliptical trainers. Ankle didn't flex right, I never realized it, I had pain for 5 months, had an ortho check it out and he said to me
"You gotta be kidding". Because it was so inflexible.
I had PT, they reduced scar tissue, and now it's virtually good as new with almost no maintenance. Things have long term consequences. Maybe Pine Island's crookedness caught up with her.

[RavenSuesMom1]

Okay -- my picks:

Zanjero
Dominican
Teuflesberg
Great Hunter

LOL - my ML odds now -
30-1
20-1
30-1
15-1

I'm Sunk!

[ratherrapid]

Now, Rokeby, this is getting interesting! I've been trying to figure out for a year how Barbaro looked that strong in the Derby. Total surprise to me. I've been around long enough to recognize that performance came from training instead of the genes. Do you perhaps some inside info you'd care to share on how matz trained Barbaro?

As to Pletcher and his methods, whatever they in fact are--you know what Midwest says--Scat Daddy in the Fl. Derby looked to me like he had done a lot more than breezing 5f. I'm trying to remember when I've seen a horse look stronger, fitter and more in control gate to wire. which brings up a lot of questions. My thinking has always been that you have to train for distance, but, then again, you watch these trainers and there must be some reason other than complete laziness and total ignorance as to why they are going about things the way they are.

[Rokeby Forever]

RatherRapid...I didn't think it was a secret that Michael Matz put a lot of long, slow gallops into Barbaro, as he did with Round Pond. Remember Barbaro didn't have a workout for 28 days after the Florida Derby? He didn't just collect dust during all that time!

I don't understand today's training methods for distance because they go contrary to what Mr Miller used to do to build stamina. He never worked a horse fast or open galloped it only 1 1/4 mile.

Maybe the breed is so fragile now that everyone is afraid to work a horse 1 mile or gallop it 2 miles? 1 mile works used to be customary...how many do you see now? Maybe also...racing is so sprint oriented (I think 80% of races in America are sprints), how many trainers concentrate on training a horse to go long? How many trainers in the KY Derby can you say, "That trainer specializes with route horses!"? Barclay Tagg with his grass stock, certainly, but who else?

[jagger]

One of my favorite topics. Training. Just because a horse looks spectacular (ala Barbaro) or Brother Derek, does not necessarily mean that he is fit for a route. Almost all human sprinters LOOK better than almost all milers and certainly better than all 10k runners. Thoroughbreds are genetically programmed for speed but stamina MUST be appropriately trained into the horse. Very little of todays training techniques pay much attention to cardiovascular fitness or stamina. Much more attention is paid towards getting a 2yo to run a sub 10 second furlong. This is a recipe for disaster. Speed kills!! It is not unlikely that a horse can have the muscular maturity to run this fast but it is very unlikely that he will have the support systems (bones, ligaments, tendons and cartilege to endure such punishment without significantly risking injury.

Almost any three year old can run a 24 second quarter or even a 48 second half. A 1:12 three quarter starts to be a problem for many and a 1:36 mile really becomes a challenge. And, of course, only three horses have continued with the 24 second quarters until the 1 1/4. This is almost entirely due to inadequate cardiovascular training. There are undoubtedly some pure sprinters who may not be able to profit from cardiovascular fitness training but I suspect the vast majority of horses have much more potential that is unrealized due to faulty training methods.

Horses almost never run "negative" splits in a route. That is a final quarter that is faster than the first. Humans almost always do. Ever since Roger Bannister broke the 4 minute barrier, this has been the case. Pre Roger Bannister, milers trained only about 30 to 40 miles per week and much of this was moderate speed work. Pre Roger Bannister, the tact was to go out the first quarter fast and then just try to hold on. The last quarter was always slower than the first. Now all milers train at least 70 miles or more per week and the last quarter is ALWAYS significantly faster than the first.

The increased interest in precocity and emphasis on early speed without the cardiovascular base and accompanying structural fitness is a major source of the injury epidemic and the fact that most horses have very short careers.

[geowarrior]

Off topic, but Toccet, who's the new avatar?

[hpkingjr]

I used the oriental or Chan system. Very reliable for classic races.

1. Hard Spun

2. Circular Quay

3. Nobiz like Shobiz

4. Any Given Saturday

[jagger]

OK, Pat, I'll bite. What is the oriental or Chan system? I do like all the picks except Any Given Saturday though.

[CA Michael]

60% chance of rain.

PACE KILLS--on a tiring track, these will kill off each other:

Stormello
Nobiz Like Shobiz
Teuflesberg
Cowtown Cat
Hard Spun

STALKERS--Can they sustain it 10 furlongs?

Any Given Saturday
Curlin
Dominican
Liquidity
Scat Daddy
Street Sense

DEEP CLOSERS--trip will decide

Circular Quay
Great Hunter
Tiago
Zanjero


MUD BREEDING--

Any Given Saturday
Cowtown Cat
Curlin
Hard Spun
Liquidity
Zanjero

CHURCHILL RACE?--

Any Given Saturday (2nd)
Circular Quay (3-2-1)
Dominican (2-0)
Great Hunter (3rd)
Scat Daddy (4th-BC)
Stormello (5th-BC)
Street Sense (2-1-BC)
Teuflesberg (5-1)
Zanjero (1-1)

----------------------------------

I think a stalker, with mud breeding, good experience over CD, and quality will win it.

Win-ANY GIVEN SATURDAY

Place-Street Sense

Show-Scat Daddy

Longshot-Great Hunter

[Stevie Belmont]

Not Smarty Jones.......

In humans, lack of sleep is known to cause balance problems. Fordham U did a study on that once with very convincing results.

It would be nice to have balance and agility when one is likely to get body slammed by any one or more of 19 other starters on a stressful day . . .no?

It seems like those horses in big races that always have a camera in their face flop in the race. I have no stats to back that up, but when a "Heartwarming Story" is done about a horse, it seems to be the kiss of death.
This is why I don't think Street Sense will be on the board. I betcha he'll be the most hyped.

[hpkingjr]

OK, Pat, I'll bite. What is the oriental or Chan system? I do like all the picks except Any Given Saturday though.

Chan System:

C Circular Quay

H Hard Spun

A Any Given Saturday

N Nobiz Like Shobiz[/b]


Well actually it's Charlie Chan.