Size of Field and Starts Per Horse

[Sysonby]

Dr. Bramlage is not the person to comment on breeding,

If I am not mistaken, Bramlage, who has practiced many decades, is actually expounding about relative soundness and as an equine surgeon he is eminently qualified to have an opinion.

As for the whole notion that you need to be a breeder to have an opinion on breeding, wouldn't that eliminate you from the discussion, Louis?

[louis finochio]

I am not a breeder, I am a pedigree researcher. If I had the finances, i would be a breeder. This thread has opened many doors for me. With mating season fast approaching, I am advising many new breeders of hiow to plan their matings of soundness.

[TJ]

Louis,

Liver spots are Bend' Or spots. Dark patches that show up on some chestnuts. So far there hasn't been any positive connection made between the spots and racing ability.

Princequillo was a bay, and I've never seen any dark patches on his coat in any of the photos that are of him. Ditto with Secretariat.

Anyone else see Bend'Or spots on Secretariat?

In the vein of follow the money: Can trainers make a good living off the day rates? If they can, there is an economic interest in not racing horses of marginal ability. Once the horse has shown that it has no ability, the horse would be moved into another career. No more day rates.
IF this it true, it might be the one single factor has lowered starts.

Hi X,
I'm certain I never saw Bend'Or spots on Secretariat, I'm trying to see where you reference Louis saying this? As there could be a possibility the other Big Red, Man O' War had them as he descended from Bend'Or.
Concerning trainer's making a living on day money.....the big guys with big stables may be able to, but in general you're lucky to break even. TJ

[louis finochio]

Look at those old photos of Princequillo, & Prince John, you will find many LS among them.

[TJ]

Look at those old photos of Princequillo, & Prince John, you will find many LS among them.

Hi Lou,
Princequillo was a bay, "liver" is used in relation to a specific color of a chestnut.....more brown than red. I don't know of any reference to a horse using the term liver spots.....liver spots could be used when referring to me as I'm not getting any younger:>).....but not in horses that I know of. If anyone know's the term liver spots as it is referenced to horses and what Louis is eluding to please correct me?
The only spots I see on Princequillo look like dapples to me? TJ

[Sysonby]

If you scroll down on the link below, there is a picture of Princequillo

http://community.tvg.com/t5/History-and ... d-p/202431

I agree with you, TJ. Admittedly this is a BW photo but those look like dapples to me.

[xfactor fan]

The liver spot comment came from the other thread--you know the endless one.

And the reply should have been posted there. However I've found it best to address Louis's claims right away, and not let misinformation proliferate.

Here are good images of the three horses he claims have "liver spots" doesn't even bother to use the correct name for the dark patches.

There don't appear to be any on Secretariat. Ditto Princequillo who was a bay anyway, and wouldn't be likely to have them. There may be one on the point of the hip of Prince John. They do show up on the palomino offspring of Jack Sprat. However these guys are all sport horses. So by the theory, Bend'Or spots are a marker not for racing ability but for sporthorse ability.


Photo of Secretariat.

http://www.sporthorse-data.com/d?showpi ... 1208680890

Photo of Princequillo.

http://www.sporthorse-data.com/d?showpi ... 1284225280


Photo of Prince John.

http://www.sporthorse-data.com/d?showpi ... 1203846404


Glitter Please --grandson of Prince John, and not a race horse.

http://www.sporthorse-data.com/d?showpi ... 1275129175

G. P.'S Krugerrand--son of Glitter Please

http://www.sporthorse-data.com/d?showpi ... 1275128206

[kimberley mine]

Take a look at this link: http://www.jockeyclub.com/factbook/StateFactBook/California.pdf Go to page 10 and compare registered foals, lifetime starts and average starts per starter for 1991 and 2007. There are MAJOR differences that cannot possibly be explained by the track, jockey, trainer, economy, medications or statistics.

Well, aside from the loss of 7% of the 2002 foal crop due to MRLS and three major recessions (1991-1992, 2000-2001, 2007-2007) in the 20 years from 1990-2010, which are economic events that would have a direct impact on whether or not people kept horses in training or bred them.......

The 1986 Tax Reform Act affected the industry in three fundamental ways: I) The Passive Activity Loss -- Prior to this Act, the thoroughbred industry benefitted from capital infusions by people who needed to shelter large sums of money, and these investments in the industry were tax-exempt. The Act put an end to these tax benefits. Newberry argues that there is no change in the Internal Revenue Code which has had such a profound impact on the thoroughbred industry as the passive loss provision. 2) The income tax from horses classified as capital assets (mainly the broodmares and stallions) rose from 20 percent to 28 percent, and 3) the Act lowered the depreciation rate for the industry.

That happened in 1986. (Source: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/1 ... 010165.pdf ) By changing the rules so that people couldn't write off losses in breeding/racing on their taxes, by making breeding more expensive, and by changing the amount of money owners could write off on their broodstock per year, this event made it directly more expensive to own and breed and race horses.

The JC stats on hand (http://www.jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp?section=12 for 1988-2009, http://home.jockeyclub.com/factbook/fac ... fc-87.html for 1987, http://home.jockeyclub.com/factbook/fac ... fc-86.html for 1986) show no significant difference between 1986 and 1987, an immediate decline in foal crop between 1987 (bred in 1986) and 1988 (bred 1987), and large declines in foal crop every year until 1996. This was accompanied by a nine-year decline in the number of aggregate starters (that's while the pre-rule-change horses worked their way out of the system) and a steady fall in the number of aggregate races. Average purses increased over this time, which can partially be explained by the rise of statebred programs fueled by slot money and partially explained by the huge rise in top-end stakes purses. (1 purse dollar out of every 50 awarded in North America in 2009 was handed out on Breeder's Cup Weekend.)

Here is an article written by a tax professional in 1993 that attempts to explain how the change in the tax code will affect both large breeders, wealthy folks who might want to use the game as a profit/tax sink, and small hobby breeders who run for fun: http://www.allbusiness.com/professional ... 278-1.html

It's worth mentioning that the change in the tax law had demonstrable effects on other aspects of the horse industry: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m ... _20417683/

Horse slaughter hit its peak in the late 1980s, when changes in the federal tax code no longer allowed sheltered investments in thoroughbred breeding operations. Marc Paulbus, director of equine protection for the Humane Society of the U.S. (HSUS), says that "billions of dollars" were invested by speculators and, when the tax laws changed, the value of high-line animals - everything from racing Arabians to Tennessee Walking Horses - plunged overnight. "Horses with a paper value of $100,000 were sent to slaughter," Paulhus says. The horse population shot up from 5.5 million to eight million between 1983 and 1986, but just as many horses - 2.5 million - were slaughtered between 1986 and 1995. Paulhus says that overbreeding continues, and that racing breeds, most of them relatively young, still make up the greatest percentage of horses slaughtered.

(emphasis mine)

The relatively-young racing bred horses were the ones who were no longer economical to race.

So...a single economic event in 1986 caused a persistent 10-year decline in the number of mares bred, number of horses who started, and number of horses who continued to race, and increased the number of horses retired from racing (to kill or otherwise) at a young age.

Since the original post addressed field size and number of starters, here is another table from the JC: http://www.jockeyclub.com/factbook.asp?section=10

The number of starters in 1990 was three times the number of starters in 1960, but look at what happened to the number of races. Compared to the number of starters, there were more races (1.26/runner) in 1960 than in 1990 (0.89/runner), meaning fewer opportunities to run. If you look at the chart and also at the graph, you'll see that the number of starts per year is pretty flat until 1973 or so, and then really drops off around 1980 (which is the 1-to-1 point of races/runner). At the same time, the number of races run has fallen every year since 1990 (which, if you recall, is when horses conceived right after the tax law changed, were working their way through the system), until now when the ratio of races to starters is 0.75.

If there are fewer races, there are fewer opportunities for horses to run. If there are fewer opportunities for horses to run, then by necessity they will race less often, because fields have fixed sizes. That was Sysonby's point about the perpetually oversubscribed Maiden $8000 at Golden Gate--that's the level at which those horses need to run, and there are not enough races for that level of runner.

To another point you made, taken out of order:

For an example, the Size of Field and Starts Per Horse data includes horses in Canada. If you exclude the horses in Canada, the field sizes are smaller with fewer starts. In the post by DDT, he includes sires in Europe! Exclude the sires in Europe and all of his numbers change.

You are correct in pointing that out. And in the context of the discussion above of the US tax law change, excluding both the Euros and the Canadians from the decline in aggregate starters, starts, and foal crop makes absolute sense. It is also a profound explanation of why horses abroad with the same 3rd-generation ancestors (and in many cases, the same parents!) as US-bred horses run more often than US-owned horses--the economics of racing in those countries is very different.

On a final note, your insinuation that I was using statistical analysis to be intellectually dishonest with you was exceptionally uncalled for, especially since the whole point of that exercise was to show why average starts was a bad metric and to suggest one that would be better for both your argument and mine.

Good luck on BC day and may your bets pay off well.

NB: edited to fix a small typo.

[TJ]

Hi Sysonby and X,
Nice pictures....looks like something else other than dapples that were obvious on Princequillo.....sure looks like a big old tendon on his RF leg. X, I see what you are saying with Prince John and that could be with The Tetrarch showing in his pedigree.....The Tetrarch inherited much from Bend'Or who appears in his 3rd generation.....although The Tetrarch is gray he is covered with spots too. Below is a story and picture of Bend'Or who started this name for these spots:>) TJ

http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/BendOr.html

http://www.pedigreequery.com/the+tetrarch (look at his picture and note Bend'Or in 3rd generation)

[LB]

So...are these spots supposed to have anything to do with soundess...or is everyone else as confused by what this thread is currently about as I am?

For the record, the spots' influence on anything--much less racing ability--seems unlikely due to the fact that bend'or spots appear, disappear, and reappear at random times and on random places on a horse. The fact that you see a picture of a horse with such a spot doesn't necessarily mean that it was there the week before...or the week after. So maybe the horses are only sound when the spots are visible??

kimberly mine, keep up the good work. You have more patience than I do.

[diomed]

Here's a thought. LS might just come from the dam. She is, after all, 50% of the genetic equation.(perhaps someone should point this out to louis.).
Oh, what the hell, Louis says the there are 32 sirelines in a 5 gen pedigree. That must mean that there are 32 FEMALE LINES as well. Has Louis ever considered that those lines play a part?

[TJ]

So...are these spots supposed to have anything to do with soundess...or is everyone else as confused by what this thread is currently about as I am?

For the record, the spots' influence on anything--much less racing ability--seems unlikely due to the fact that bend'or spots appear, disappear, and reappear at random times and on random places on a horse. The fact that you see a picture of a horse with such a spot doesn't necessarily mean that it was there the week before...or the week after. So maybe the horses are only sound when the spots are visible??

kimberly mine, keep up the good work. You have more patience than I do.

Hi LB,
Sorry if the thread took a detour....but since you voiced an opinion I have to say that color and odd spots as well as racing ability are all part of breeding. Many times you get an idea if you were able to pull from a particular gene pool you were trying for by seeing a certain color or even these odd spotted colorings which are inherited and don't come and go. The Tetrarch being inbred to the dam of Bend'Or (RF) and had the odd spots as he did would indicate they may have hit on Bend'Or's line.....he won all 7 of his starts, so along with those spots possibly came a racing ability throw back to Bend'Or. TJ

[LB]

So...are these spots supposed to have anything to do with soundess...or is everyone else as confused by what this thread is currently about as I am?

For the record, the spots' influence on anything--much less racing ability--seems unlikely due to the fact that bend'or spots appear, disappear, and reappear at random times and on random places on a horse. The fact that you see a picture of a horse with such a spot doesn't necessarily mean that it was there the week before...or the week after. So maybe the horses are only sound when the spots are visible??

kimberly mine, keep up the good work. You have more patience than I do.

Hi LB,
Sorry if the thread took a detour....but since you voiced an opinion I have to say that color and odd spots as well as racing ability are all part of breeding. Many times you get an idea if you were able to pull from a particular gene pool you were trying for by seeing a certain color or even these odd spotted colorings which are inherited and don't come and go. The Tetrarch being inbred to the dam of Bend'Or (RF) and had the odd spots as he did would indicate they may have hit on Bend'Or's line.....he won all 7 of his starts, so along with those spots possibly came a racing ability throw back to Bend'Or. TJ

Luckily I'm pretty well aware of what breeding is about. Having had horses with bend'or spots and birdcatcher spots, I find it hard to believe that they impact performance. FWIW, none of those spots on any of those horses were present at birth, nor were they permanent once they appeared. I currently have a 6yo chestnut mare who--new this spring--has a bend'or spot on her hip. What conclusions should I draw from this? Would she have been faster/sounder if the spot was there when she was racing at 3? It's all a little hard for me to fathom.

[xfactor fan]

Sorry about hijacking the thread with the mis-post about Bend'Or spots.

For the record this is the comment from Louis from page 388 of the never ending thread.


The nasrullah branch of St. Simon is his most dominant branch. The Princequillo branch of SS is thru Prince Rose, the Nasrullah branch of SS is speed with a nasty temperment. The Princequillo branch of SS is stamina, & turf. Those Princequillo, Prince John, Round Table tbs carry those liver spots found on their body. When you see them in a tb, you will know that those liver spots were handed down from the Prince Rose line.

For the record Prince Rose was Bay, Rose Prince was bay, Prince Palatine was bay, Persimmon was bay, St Simon Brown. Bend'Or doesn't appear in the sire line at all.

[TJ]

So...are these spots supposed to have anything to do with soundess...or is everyone else as confused by what this thread is currently about as I am?

For the record, the spots' influence on anything--much less racing ability--seems unlikely due to the fact that bend'or spots appear, disappear, and reappear at random times and on random places on a horse. The fact that you see a picture of a horse with such a spot doesn't necessarily mean that it was there the week before...or the week after. So maybe the horses are only sound when the spots are visible??

kimberly mine, keep up the good work. You have more patience than I do.

Hi LB,
Sorry if the thread took a detour....but since you voiced an opinion I have to say that color and odd spots as well as racing ability are all part of breeding. Many times you get an idea if you were able to pull from a particular gene pool you were trying for by seeing a certain color or even these odd spotted colorings which are inherited and don't come and go. The Tetrarch being inbred to the dam of Bend'Or (RF) and had the odd spots as he did would indicate they may have hit on Bend'Or's line.....he won all 7 of his starts, so along with those spots possibly came a racing ability throw back to Bend'Or. TJ

Luckily I'm pretty well aware of what breeding is about. Having had horses with bend'or spots and birdcatcher spots, I find it hard to believe that they impact performance. FWIW, none of those spots on any of those horses were present at birth, nor were they permanent once they appeared. I currently have a 6yo chestnut mare who--new this spring--has a bend'or spot on her hip. What conclusions should I draw from this? Would she have been faster/sounder if the spot was there when she was racing at 3? It's all a little hard for me to fathom.

Hi LB,
Some 200 years later you are right....but in that one instance I mentioned it looked like they were trying to reproduce a horse with Bend'Or's ability and it seemed they did... But I don't want to upset anyone into this original post so I'll drop it.....or we'll keep going round and round.....You're right it was off topic and not worth mentioning. TJ