Year-*-Starters-*-Races-*---Starts-*---Avg Field--* Avg Starts Per Runner
1990-*-89,716--*-79,971-*--712,494--*--8.91----*-------7.94
2005 * 72,780--*-57,495-*-469,644---*--8.17----*-------6.45
These stats came from the Jockey Club. I pulled 1990 because it reported the highest number of races and comparing that to last year's numbers. Do you think it is harder, easier, or no different to notch a win today compared to 1990?
JonR
Harder to get a win, Then or Now
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summerhorse
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Well there are fewer races but also fewer starters so that makes it actually a higher % of winners for now vs. then (12.2 compared to 11.2). But 18% fewer starters in 2005 made 34% fewer starts than before. So I think the real problem isn't ease of winning but getting the darn things to stay sound enough to actually RUN! 
Every mighty oak was once an acorn that stood its ground.
I agree that math says higher percentage of potential winners now than back in 1990. My backwoods thinking says fewer races, fewer opportunity, but statistically it looks better now. I am wondering if the reduction in avg start per runner is a symptom of fewer races or if soundness truly is the culprit? I am not arguing a case for one side or the other, but curious if the downward trend in number of races continues if it will be more difficult next year, the year after to break a maiden than this year, win a second race, or if these stats don't mean much at all.
As a breeder do these stats suggest building up or reducing stock?
JonR
As a breeder do these stats suggest building up or reducing stock?
JonR
ragsdaj1 wrote:I agree that math says higher percentage of potential winners now than back in 1990. My backwoods thinking says fewer races, fewer opportunity, but statistically it looks better now. I am wondering if the reduction in avg start per runner is a symptom of fewer races or if soundness truly is the culprit? I am not arguing a case for one side or the other, but curious if the downward trend in number of races continues if it will be more difficult next year, the year after to break a maiden than this year, win a second race, or if these stats don't mean much at all.
As a breeder do these stats suggest building up or reducing stock?
JonR
As a life long fan and participant in horseracing I don't see a very bright future for the sport for several reasons: 1. Casinos are killing the gambling aspect of racing... like it or not racing needs the gambling dollars and they are going elsewhere with no end in sight. True, purses are suplemented by "racinos" etc.... but for how much longer and at what % will they continue to be suplemented? Go to most "racinos" and very few of the patrons are watching or wagering on the horses. Eventually racino/casino owners and politicians are going to question why the horses continue to be suplemented or worse why have the horses at all? And the Indian gambling casinos are being built like cheap housing projects springing up everywhere that Indian land resides. 2. Poor breeding practices will catch up to all participants one day soon and stud fees will plummet by 50-75% or more with broodmare values falling as well along with the overall TB bloodstock value.
While I still enjoy the game I would be playing it very conservatively at this stage.
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louis finochio
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I dont have the stats in front of me, but the number of foals in the 1990 crop was less that in todays time frame.
Why breed 130 mares to a stallion in the US and shuttle south for another 130. A high % of those mares are from medicore bloodstock, which produces mediocre results.
Bold Ruler was only bred to 30-40 mares a season and has the highest stallion AEI at 7.75 lifetime.
It is always quality over quanity which rules the roost.
Why breed 130 mares to a stallion in the US and shuttle south for another 130. A high % of those mares are from medicore bloodstock, which produces mediocre results.
Bold Ruler was only bred to 30-40 mares a season and has the highest stallion AEI at 7.75 lifetime.
It is always quality over quanity which rules the roost.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
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louis finochio
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As TB breeders continue to breed out of medicore mares their will be more mediocre runners and more foals every year.
The wise breeder will cull his broodmare band and replace those mares with a better class of mare.
The 3 X 3 matings of Mr. P and Storm Cat were not born in the late 80's.
We are seeing more of these matings today that are adding to the unsoundness stats.
The wise breeder will cull his broodmare band and replace those mares with a better class of mare.
The 3 X 3 matings of Mr. P and Storm Cat were not born in the late 80's.
We are seeing more of these matings today that are adding to the unsoundness stats.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
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wilf
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You may have a point there Louis, I recall many horses in the early 90s along the east coast racing at age 8 and up. I have a win photo at home where my old gelding and the second place finisher won over 60 races betwen them. For anyone interested their names are Classic Jewel and Belles Ruckus and I feel sure that it would never happen these days.
louis finochio wrote:As TB breeders continue to breed out of medicore mares their will be more mediocre runners and more foals every year.
The wise breeder will cull his broodmare band and replace those mares with a better class of mare.
The 3 X 3 matings of Mr. P and Storm Cat were not born in the late 80's.
We are seeing more of these matings today that are adding to the unsoundness stats.
Louis,
I don't want to start an argument, but would be interested know your definition of mediocre. Also sometime when you get a chance I saw this sire listed on the TB sires of sires list. Not an exact match, but close enough you might at least smile.. http://www.pedigreequery.com/finocchio
JonR
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louis finochio
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Hi Rags: Thanks for posting that Finocchio TB. When my grand-parents came to this country from Italy in 1904, our original name was Finocchio, but our family dropped the c and it is now and has been Finochio.
What would I refer to as mediocre ? I would cull a mediocre mare that has not been a producer of quality TB. If the mare was bred to 5 different sire line stallions and failed to produce any superior runners Alowance or Stk races I would purchase a mare that has produced those superior runners.
On the stallion side, I would call a stallion mediocre if he has produced only 3 % SW. If his AEI was below 1.50 I would seek a better class of stallion.
I have been blessed with a happy go lucky personality Rags, so you wont upset me if you dont like what I post. This forum is great because we can all learn from the mistakes all of us have made over the years.
All the best to you Rags and breed a champion. Yours in Sport Louis.
What would I refer to as mediocre ? I would cull a mediocre mare that has not been a producer of quality TB. If the mare was bred to 5 different sire line stallions and failed to produce any superior runners Alowance or Stk races I would purchase a mare that has produced those superior runners.
On the stallion side, I would call a stallion mediocre if he has produced only 3 % SW. If his AEI was below 1.50 I would seek a better class of stallion.
I have been blessed with a happy go lucky personality Rags, so you wont upset me if you dont like what I post. This forum is great because we can all learn from the mistakes all of us have made over the years.
All the best to you Rags and breed a champion. Yours in Sport Louis.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
Louis,
I did not think I would offend you or vice versa, but the word midocre has generated some ill feelings on other posts. I didn't want this to turn ugly. I would agree with your mare assessment though I also think a mare should get a well deserved sabatical and would probably not have the 5th opportunity if nothing encouraging developed from my first 4 opportunities. It also helps recycle the birthing month to january February timeframe if you have the patients to skip a year.
It is hard for me to really put a number on a stallion. Not all sires receive the same opportunity so I am really only interested what they did with opportunities they had similar to my mare. I still look at the numbers too though.
So Finocchio is an exact match then. You are so reknown that a breeder named a horse after you. Very impressive.
JonR
I did not think I would offend you or vice versa, but the word midocre has generated some ill feelings on other posts. I didn't want this to turn ugly. I would agree with your mare assessment though I also think a mare should get a well deserved sabatical and would probably not have the 5th opportunity if nothing encouraging developed from my first 4 opportunities. It also helps recycle the birthing month to january February timeframe if you have the patients to skip a year.
It is hard for me to really put a number on a stallion. Not all sires receive the same opportunity so I am really only interested what they did with opportunities they had similar to my mare. I still look at the numbers too though.
So Finocchio is an exact match then. You are so reknown that a breeder named a horse after you. Very impressive.
JonR