BC Classic looks to overdraw

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Heidilady
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BC Classic looks to overdraw

Postby Heidilady » Wed Oct 18, 2006 4:09 am

http://bc.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=35846

Flower Alley's going as is Bernardini and here's the rest..it adds to 15 if I counted right but doesn't include George Washington which it's said he's pretty much going...make that 16.

Also pointing to the race: Lava Man, Invasor, Brother Derek, Strong Contender, Giacomo; and Andromeda's Hero, David Junior, Lawyer Ron, Perfect Drift, Premium Tap, Suave, Sun King and Super Frolic.

I haven't kept up on all the requirements but remind me about who draws in first. I presume points in the division is the first tie breaker? Where does that leave George Washington as far as his Euro races? I presume since he got a 2000 Guineas win he's in but it's only a mile. Who are the lowest rungs on the proverbial ladder here?

Which one or two would you like to tap on the shoulder and ask to move aside? I can think of a couple easy but since I asked it t'would be rude to also answer it ;) Still annoyed that I gotta wait to see Discreet Cat.
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Postby Dave C » Wed Oct 18, 2006 10:40 pm

I think the connections for a lot of these horses are playing poker. There trying to scare off a bunch of the other also rans by announcing early that they are definitely going to run in the hopes that on entry day the field actually comes up small and they have a shot at getting a piece. I don't think that too many of these trainers actually want to take a shot at the big dogs, especially in a big field. Expect to see a lot of bruised feet and wrenched ankles just before entries.

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Re: BC Classic looks to overdraw

Postby Sam » Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:21 pm

Heidilady wrote:Flower Alley's going as is Bernardini and here's the rest..it adds to 15 if I counted right but doesn't include George Washington which it's said he's pretty much going...make that 16.

Yeah, 16:

Brother Derek -- Not ready. Would be in his best interest to skip it and go for next year. If he'd had a few more weeks training/another prep I'd feel better about his chances.

Andromeda's Hero -- Why? Because he was a distanced 2nd to Bernardini in the JCGC? Doesn't belong in the field. He's just not good enough.

Premium Tap
Suave
Sun King
Super Frolic

None of the above have much of a chance. They should all pull up a bench.

Heidilady wrote:Still annoyed that I gotta wait to see Discreet Cat.

Only because you are willingly turning a blind eye to the colt's true ability (or rather, lack of it). He's just not as good as you want to believe he is. Don't fall for hype and horseshit.

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Postby Heidilady » Wed Oct 18, 2006 11:43 pm

Get this folks, Wild Desert was partially sold and his connections are considering the Clark and the BC Classic.

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/todays ... 0&subsec=2

Seriously people, what next? How about we take Toccet out of retirement and prep him for an entry into the Classic?
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Re: BC Classic looks to overdraw

Postby FOS » Thu Oct 19, 2006 8:33 am

hello Heidilady

Sam wrote:
Heidilady wrote:Still annoyed that I gotta wait to see Discreet Cat.

Only because you are willingly turning a blind eye to the colt's true ability (or rather, lack of it). He's just not as good as you want to believe he is. Don't fall for hype and horseshit.

Bull's-eye

Discreet Cat is being well-managed to the extent that his connections (to my way of thinking) understand exactly what they have...and that is a very good race horse that is NOT (right now) a top-dog or cut from the same cloth as (for example) an Invasor or a Bernardini. From my perspective...he is (right now) a cut or two below the top.

That's not to say that Discreet Cat won't, at some point, show up to run in a Grade 1...but, I sense that might not happen unless today's big-dogs are running elsewhere, are sidelined...or are retired. If Discreet Cat stays sound, attrition of the elite runners should enhance his chances of winning a big one.

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Postby Ill-bred » Thu Oct 19, 2006 9:01 am

I don't understand what Dicreet Cat has done wrong.

He's undefeatd in five starts with an average margin of victory seven lengths. He has huge speed figures. He's been visually impressive. He dusted Invasor in March.

Please explain the negatives on this horse.

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Postby Dave C » Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:41 am

Sam:

Have to disagree with you on Sun King. Invasor was all out to beat him by a head in the Whitney. If you think Invasor belongs then you gotta think Sun King is the dark horse that can steal it from the hyped big three.

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Postby FOS » Thu Oct 19, 2006 11:25 am

hi Ill-bred

Ill-bred wrote:I don't understand what Discreet Cat has done wrong.

He's undefeatd in five starts with an average margin of victory seven lengths. He has huge speed figures. He's been visually impressive. He dusted Invasor in March.

Please explain the negatives on this horse.

Arguably, Discreet Cat hasn't done anything wrong...but (from my perspective) right now he isn't (and possibly never will be) a threat to defeat the big boys in the 1 1/4 mile BC Classic (for example).

If Darley thought he was...I'm confident he'd be running.

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Postby Heidilady » Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:28 pm

FOS wrote:hi Ill-bred

Ill-bred wrote:I don't understand what Discreet Cat has done wrong.

He's undefeatd in five starts with an average margin of victory seven lengths. He has huge speed figures. He's been visually impressive. He dusted Invasor in March.

Please explain the negatives on this horse.

Arguably, Discreet Cat hasn't done anything wrong...but (from my perspective) right now he isn't (and possibly never will be) a threat to defeat the big boys in the 1 1/4 mile BC Classic (for example).

If Darley thought he was...I'm confident he'd be running.

Respectfully


Seriously you think the reason he's not running is because they don't think he's good enough right now? Hardly..they're avoiding Bernardini because if DC somehow isn't seasoned enough they don't wanna put him through the ringer and if he DID take it, well they've just diminished the stud value of the other horse. They're playing keep away because they figure they can get two Classics without having a horse run on afterwards--they wanna go out on a high note with each one so I can't really blame'em. You've seen his Beyers right? He's amongst the tops for the whole year on any surface. He's certainly earned it more than Super Frolic or some of those.

I base my opinion on him on watching his races and looking at the numbers and I don't think I'm blind or mistaken so if people disagree fine but I'll respectfully keep my opinion as we've seen the same performances. Since nobody here's on the training staff I have to assume we have access to the same info. There's so many reasons he's not running that have nothing to do with talent. Without Bernardini in the race it seems from their comments they totally would send DC whether or not he had any more seasoning so I'd have to assume they're just playing strategy games and that I don't appreciate.
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Postby Sam » Thu Oct 19, 2006 12:56 pm

Ill-bred wrote:I don't understand what Dicreet Cat has done wrong.

He's undefeatd in five starts with an average margin of victory seven lengths. He has huge speed figures. He's been visually impressive. He dusted Invasor in March.

Please explain the negatives on this horse.

He hasn't done anything wrong, but he hasn't done anything 'great' either.

It's easy to win off by 10 lengths when you throughly outclass all your competition. Most of the horses in his races have been little better than top allowance horses. As I said in another thread, there is a reason this horses is being so carefully managed.

He and Bernardini are both owned by the same outfit (more or less) and have made about the same amount of starts -- Bernardini has 4 stakes wins in G1 races like the Preakness, Travers, and JCGC to Discreet Cat's 2, one of which was in ANOTHER COUNTRY against a suspect field in a race that has yet to produce a really top echelon 3yo (and the older horses to come out of it -- save for Lido Palace and Invasor -- have been good in other countries). How long has he been here? And his only win was in the Jerome? He hasn't even SEEN Grade 1 competition yet. Other than him and Invasor, have ANY of the horses in this year's UAE Derby come back and run credible races, anywhere?

He's a Forestry -- this is not a sire known to get top notch 10 furlong horses. Hell, he's not a stallion known for getting 10f claimers. Discreet Cat's female family is and has produced nothing but hardcore sprinters for 3 generations. Why people think this colt is capable of running a 2 minute 10f is beyond me.

These guys are not stupid. They know what they have and what they have is a 3yo with a lot of talent who, RIGHT NOW, is just not good enough to run 10f against his peers, let alone his elders. He may NEVER be good enough to go 10 furlongs. I suspect 9 will be his limit and even then it's going to depend on the field he draws against.

As for his beating Invasor in March -- I'm not going to hold that against Invasor. A LOT of horses don't ship out there and run well just like a lot of them ship out, run well and never come back into form. Invasor is chronologically 4yos now (3yo when he won the Pimlico Special even though the US saw him as a 4yo). Even if you want to consider him a 3yo for all his races prior to August -- he was HERE, running in Grade 1s against older horses and WINNING. Discreet Cat has never seen anything but a handful of 3yo allowance horses with delusions of grandeur.

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Postby Sam » Thu Oct 19, 2006 1:03 pm

Heidilady wrote:Seriously you think the reason he's not running is because they don't think he's good enough right now? Hardly..they're avoiding Bernardini because if DC somehow isn't seasoned enough they don't wanna put him through the ringer and if he DID take it, well they've just diminished the stud value of the other horse.

Darley/Godolphin doesn't duck their own charges. Not often. The first half of your statement is most likely the correct one -- they know Discreet Cat isn't good enough to beat Bernardini right now, especially not at 10f.

Discreet Cat beating Bernardini would not adversely affect Bernardini's stud fee in any big way. He would STILL be the 3yo CH. for this year and he will still, most likely, go to Dubai next year for the World Cup.

You seem to be under the impression that both colts are going to retire after the Breeders' Cup. I seriously doubt that. If it were Ashford or Coolmore, maybe... but this is Darley/Godolphin. Baring something unforeseen, I bet good money BOTH colts are in the gate in Dubai next year -- Bernardini in the World Cup and Discreet Cat in the Golden Shaneen.

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Postby Heidilady » Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:57 pm

Sam wrote:Discreet Cat beating Bernardini would not adversely affect Bernardini's stud fee in any big way. He would STILL be the 3yo CH. for this year and he will still, most likely, go to Dubai next year for the World Cup.

You seem to be under the impression that both colts are going to retire after the Breeders' Cup. I seriously doubt that. If it were Ashford or Coolmore, maybe... but this is Darley/Godolphin. Baring something unforeseen, I bet good money BOTH colts are in the gate in Dubai next year -- Bernardini in the World Cup and Discreet Cat in the Golden Shaneen.


Nope, reread what I've typed. Clearly I've said that I expect this to be Bernardini's only Classic and next year to be Discreet Cat's...ergo DC has to run at age 4. I don't think they'll have a Classic winner who'll go an entire season afterward even if they do the Dubai World Cup with Bernardini. I don't expect the two to face ever each other, even in Dubai--smells like ducking to me.

And I disagree that DC beating Bernardini would affect things. It says hey here's a horse that didn't have as much prep and yet talent was such that it beat their big horse ergo he wasn't as good as people thought he was. "Dini"s breeding and present accomlishments are such that they'll crawl all over each other trying to book a mare to him so not sure how to quantify that. I think they think he's deserving of a certain reputation and want to make sure it's not in any way hindered, even if it doesn't make an impact on their pocket book. They wanna spread the wealth and have two Classic winners instead of one and since they wanna run DC next year in this race they figure don't put all your eggs in one basket. It is what it is. Anybody else owned the horse they'd be running him and I don't think it's a positive reflection on anybody's virtue that Darley's not.
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Postby Sam » Thu Oct 19, 2006 3:42 pm

No. Just... no.

Not logical in any real world sense, Heidi. Sorry. I don't know what you think you are seeing that makes you believe this horse is capable of running 10f, but I will bet hard money it isn't there. Thankfully, the horse's owners don't appear to be caught up in BS hype. If he were half as talented as you believe he is, don't you think they would have found some G1 to picked off by now? You make it sound as if he's so talented he's scaring off the competition, the fact is he's DUCKING the real competition.

5 starts and TWO have been high level allowance races masquerading as stakes.

He's had one less race than Bernardini -- how is that 'less prep' time?

Bernardini has run in 5 straight stakes -- three of them G1s -- and has won them all by daylight. While the field in the JCGC was anemic, that certainly was not the case in the Preakness, Travers and Jim Dandy.

I agree, I don't expect Discreet Cat and Bernardini to ever face off BECAUSE DISCREET CAT ISN'T THAT GOOD at anything over a mile. You have one horse who's a talented miler and one that is a very talented 9-10f horse... why the hell would you put them in a race together?

Discreet Cat has distance limitations written all over him and his pedigree. What on EARTH makes you think this horse can run 10f? I don't give a damn what kind of stellar numbers he's throwing up... you know the numbers for a sprinter are naturally higher than they are for a distance horse. Do you really think he'd be blowing those numbers in 10f races? He'd barely get them at 9.

You're right, anyone else owned Discreet Cat they'd probably run him... and they'd get their asses handed to them.

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Postby Heidilady » Fri Oct 20, 2006 1:50 am

Sam wrote:No. Just... no.

Not logical in any real world sense, Heidi. Sorry. I don't know what you think you are seeing that makes you believe this horse is capable of running 10f, but I will bet hard money it isn't there.


I see the horse run, I see people more qualified than you or I gaping at him, I see the numbers, I see him beat Invasor...I see plenty. Sorry but whatever you see that's so clear and obvious isn't as obvious as you think it is. I'm sure disparaging remarks are there to be made against the hype and/or media but I heard plenty about First Samurai, Henny Hughes, and am currently hearing about Scat Daddy as it relates to distance questions. They don't tend to hold back on that and they're certainly extolling DC's virtues. Ergo one can assume they feel he can do it.

If he were half as talented as you believe he is, don't you think they would have found some G1 to picked off by now? You make it sound as if he's so talented he's scaring off the competition, the fact is he's DUCKING the real competition.


They have...it's just down the road-- the Cigar Mile. 2 G1s without making their two gems meet because one of them would have to lose and they'd only end up with 1 G1. I'm sure they're quite proud of themselves for doing the math.

So Invasor's not real competition? Hmm. Here's an article to read talking about who he faced and when. They seem excited enough to see him. The only doubts are what the connections will do, not what Bloodhorse believes him capable of. http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/ ... p?id=35598 I'm sure if they felt he's a miler they'd say as much when they write about him. Haven't seen it yet.

5 starts and TWO have been high level allowance races masquerading as stakes.

He's had one less race than Bernardini -- how is that 'less prep' time?

Bernardini has run in 5 straight stakes -- three of them G1s -- and has won them all by daylight. While the field in the JCGC was anemic, that certainly was not the case in the Preakness, Travers and Jim Dandy.


Oh and Bernardini's last one was against what? Secretariat? Discreet Cat's efforts began awhile back and since he's only got one more race than Bernardini that means more spread out. You'll notice he went from March to August with nothing. And you're arguing that all those G1s, even with smaller fields, don't count as more seasoning than Discreet Cat? You're contradicting yourself. Either those races are harder and lead to more seasoning or they're not and Bernardini isn't any more ready for the BCC than Discreet Cat.

Discreet Cat has distance limitations written all over him and his pedigree. What on EARTH makes you think this horse can run 10f? I don't give a damn what kind of stellar numbers he's throwing up... you know the numbers for a sprinter are naturally higher than they are for a distance horse. Do you really think he'd be blowing those numbers in 10f races? He'd barely get them at 9.

You're right, anyone else owned Discreet Cat they'd probably run him... and they'd get their asses handed to them.


First read this, http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/ ... id=2610391
Second he's run a 1 1/4 already. Kinda how I know he can run that far. Not the quality of the Travers you might say? The classiest horse Dini beat was Bluegrass Cat who came out of the race with a career ending injury. I guess Wanderin Boy and Andromeda's Hero are super tough horses to face in the JCGC *snorts* And these weren't 10f at Churchill. For all we know Dini hates it. A quote from the article on DC perhaps "I think he will stay a mile and a quarter," trainer Saeed bin Suroor said following the Jerome. "We need to see how the horse comes out of this race, talk to Sheikh Mohammad and figure out the best plan for this horse." Oh so the trainer thinks he can stay the distance. I guess they AREN'T convinced he's just a miler. Hmmm.. what's 'best for the horse' is not putting all your eggs in one basket. Totally understandable but if you feel the horse would acquit himself well in the race it's more sportsmanlike to run. I know you, Sam, do not feel he outta be there but should Bernardini not run they'd totally enter DC. Tells you everything right there. Same reason they don't run Ashkal Way. They figure they already have a shot and the horse can try later--not lack of talent/ability. Another tiny point, Discreet Cat's got more frequent flier miles than Bernardini--I'm sure travel time adding up was another factor considering Dini shacked up in NY all fall post Preakness.
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Postby Sam » Fri Oct 20, 2006 3:02 am

Heidilady wrote:They have...it's just down the road-- the Cigar Mile.

That is over a MONTH away. Again, if this colt had the ability you seem to think he has, don't you think they would have tested him before now?

Heidilady wrote:2 G1s without making their two gems meet because one of them would have to lose and they'd only end up with 1 G1.

There are plenty of G1s Discreet Cat could have run in and not hooked up with Bernardini. Why didn't he run in the Haskell? Super Derby? King's Bishop?

You really aren't making any sense and now you're just digging your heels in. The more people point out what's suspect with this colt, the more you want to believe he's something special. You've this kneejerk reaction to anyone downplaying any horse. It's the same nonsense you were doing right after the Preakness and claiming that the 3yo CH. was more or less over because Barbaro was a can't lose.

Heidilady wrote:So Invasor's not real competition?

He wasn't in March when he had to travel halfway across the world to an environment he didn't seem to care for. He's a FOUR YEAR OLD NOW.

Heidilady wrote:Here's an article to read talking about who he faced and when.

Now you know better than to quote me rubbish like that. That was the biggest piece of fluff I've seen recently. That wasn't talking about who he's faced other than Invasor and a pair of weak allowance horses. You think what he faced in the Jerome is better than was Bernardini faced in the Preakness, Jim Dandy and Travers? You made it sound as if that article went into great detail about all the horses he's beat.

How many more times do I have to remind you that reporters are all the same... it does no good to 'talk real' about the horse because it doesn't create the necesary drama needed to draw readers.

Heidilady wrote:
Sam wrote:Bernardini has run in 5 straight stakes -- three of them G1s -- and has won them all by daylight. While the field in the JCGC was anemic, that certainly was not the case in the Preakness, Travers and Jim Dandy.

Oh and Bernardini's last one was against what? Secretariat?

Please see bolded text where I specifically said the JCGC field was "anemic." Considering I was lambasting the race before it even went off because there was no competition, for you to act like I was playing it up as some great test is foolish.

Actually, let's be real here for a moment. Yes, I think the JCGC was anemic, but really that had more to do with it having just the four horses in it than anything else.

Dylan Thomas beat Ouija Board and Alexander Goldrun. Andromeda's Hero has chased the likes of Afleet Alex, Flower Alley and Invasor and run respectable races to all three. Wanderin' Boy had also chased Invasor to a respectable second in the Pimlico Special while beating West Virginia. ALL of those horses are proven graded performers. Yes, I thought they were aiming high in trying to take out Bernardini but if he hadn't been in the race, that would have been a very competitive field even with just those three (at least on paper -- DT proved otherwise by not taking to the track).

Again, other than Invasor, has ANYTHING come out of ANY of Discreet Cat's races and proved to be noteworthy?

Heidilady wrote:Discreet Cat's efforts began awhile back and since he's only got one more race than Bernardini

He has one LESS race than Bernardini. The level of competition Bernardini has faced -- save for the JCGC -- has been of much overall higher quality. In succession, Bernardini has thumped: Brother Derek, Sunriver, Bluegrass Cat and Dylan Thomas -- all of them highly regarded 3yos and proven G1 performers. Hell, even including the JCGC, the competion was at least graded proven, even if it was suspect.

Discreet Cat as beaten who, exactly? Invasor. Once, and for the same reason Bernardini beat Dylan Thomas -- he didn't take to the track/trip. Invasor is a remarkably different animal than he was back in March. I gaurantee you he doesn't do it again.

Heidilady wrote:And you're arguing that all those G1s, even with smaller fields, don't count as more seasoning than Discreet Cat?

Smaller fields? The only race Bernardini's been in that had less than 7 starters was the JCGC... which I've now stated a few times was a suspect race.

As for seasoning... there's competitive seasoning and there's racing seasoning. As far as number of races, neither colt has an edge beyond natural ability -- and Bernardini has more. Competition wise, Bernardini has seen tougher than Discreet Cat and come out on top each time so yes, he does have more 'seasoning' in that regard.

Heidilady wrote:ready for the BCC than Discreet Cat.

Ignoring the 'readiness' aspect, again I ask you , what the HELL makes you think a colt sired by a horse who can't even produce a 10f claimer and out of a mare with THREE GENERATIONS OF SPRINTERS with AWDs under 6.5f is going to be able to beat his peers at 10f, let alone beat his elders who've been facing REAL competition while he's been puddle ducking in the shallow end of the race pool?

Heidilady wrote:Second he's run a 1 1/4 already.

No he hasn't. The UAE Derby is 9 furlongs. Oh my god, you're quoting Bill Finley? There are idiots and there are jackasses... Finley is both.

Heidilady wrote:The classiest horse Dini beat was Bluegrass Cat who came out of the race with a career ending injury.

I take it you don't have much regard for Brother Derek or Dylan Thomas? shrug... I didn't think much of Bluegrass Cat (another colt you were quite high on earlier this year who failed to live up to his continual hype -- you really need to stop listening to reporters).

Heidilady wrote:I guess Wanderin Boy and Andromeda's Hero are super tough horses to face in the JCGC

Once again, please reference any of the number of posts I've made calling that race the equivelant of a high paid public work. Jesus christ, I was advocating throwing in a high level allowance horse to fill that race out. Use your head before you make those statements, please.

Heidilady wrote:Oh so the trainer thinks he can stay the distance.

How many trainers have you EVER heard say "Hell no, we aren't going, are you daft? He'd have a coronary before he'd run that far."

There is NOTHING in this horse's immediate family that says he can win going 10f at the highest level of competition while beating his elders. I've not seen anything that makes me think he's going to get that extra furlong either. Against the kind of horses he faced in the Jerome.. sure. Against Lava Man and Bernardini -- I've said it before and I'll say it again, there is a fine line between dream and delusion. Luckily his connections do not appear to be delusional.

Heidilady wrote:Totally understandable but if you feel the horse would acquit himself well in the race it's more sportsmanlike to run.

Jesus.. that's not even worth responding to.

Heidilady wrote:I know you, Sam, do not feel he outta be there but should Bernardini not run they'd totally enter DC.

You know this how?

Heidilady wrote:Another tiny point, Discreet Cat's got more frequent flier miles than Bernardini--I'm sure travel time adding up was another factor considering Dini shacked up in NY all fall post Preakness.

You're point... weren't you the one who once said a good horse should be able to travel and still win. He's traveled and he's being coddled. He could have run in any number of G1-G2 races and not been anywhere near Bernardini .. instead he's resting on his laurels and winning an allowance race followed by an allowance race masquerading as a stake while Bernardini is out racking up G1 after G1 against the ranked 3yos.