When is a stallion "breed to race" vs "commer

[Rokeby Forever]

More and more it seems, the earlier a colt retires to stud, the more he seems to have "commercial value." But if that same colt runs 20+ times, he's labeled "breed to race."

Doesn't "breed to race" simply imply soundness? Here's an example:

Aptitude: A sound, hard knocking AP Indy - he's considered "breed to race."

Bernardini: Ran 8 times, is considered "commerical."

Had Bernardini raced until he was 5, ran 25 times, earned $10 Million, would he have become considered a "breed to race" sire? He's still the same horse...he just raced longer.

Sky Mesa is off to a great start as a "commercial sire"....but he ran only six times, got hurt at 2, and was never quite the same horse at 3. Suppose he ran 30 times and won $6 Million in purses. Would he be standing for $10,000 and getting weak mares?

Slew City Slew is a Seattle Slew out of a multiple Graded stakes winning mare - he earned over $1 Million and he raced 42 times...he's considered "breed to race." Had he run only 10 times, would he have been a "commercial" sire?

Interesting, huh?

[Heidilady]

I think you've got it a little backwards. A horse isn't commercial because of the number of starts they make, they make that number of starts because they're commercial. Same with breed-to-race really. It's about the pedigree and marketability of the yearlings, etc. Good pedigree + precocity = commercial. They only retire less commercial horses early if they get hurt because they have to have more on their resume or because they stand more of a chance to make money on the track. Also if a horse is commercial it usually means they can get good 2yos and if a horse had more success at 3 and/or 4 many conclude that so will their foals--less interest is generated in non-precocious sires ergo they can really only make the money if they surprise everyone with a breakout 2yo or if they make it breed-to-race. If they can't manage either, we don't hear about them til they end up in Korea.

Notice how old Cigar was before he went to stud (albeit unsuccessfully). They're putting Miesque's Approval back out there rather than send him. Invasor's HOY but he's going back out why? Not as commercial as Bernardini. Azeri was hardly a blue blood and while mares seem to go a little while longer I figure were she bred like Empire Maker she never would've gone another season after 2002.

[Rokeby Forever]

I understand your point. An interesting exception might be Mineshaft. He developed into a monster late, and yet, his first crop sold really, really well. Otherwise, we see the Officers and Jump Starts becoming "hot sires."

Not many "well bred" fillies race at 4 any more. The Grade 1s in 2006 for 4+ up were pretty much loaded with lesser bred fillies and mares. Look at this year's BC Distaff. You didn't see any full or half sisters to major winners.

[mikec]

Those are maybe the two best explanations / interpretations I've heard yet...& it still makes no sense to me. To me at least " breed to race " does in fact imply soundness & therefore, in a perfect world, should also enhance commercial value. I guess something like a War Admiral or Cigar ( big assumption ) would have been considered a commercial stud vs. breed to race ? It's an interesting determination.

[mikec]

Just noticed you covered my question re. Cigar...sorry 'bout that ! But still Rokeby does make a good point. I suppose the way to approach this would be to breed to a stud who crosses over well into both categories.

[Rokeby Forever]

Allen Paulson was a sportsman, so I think that's why Cigar ran as long as he did - and why Mrs Paulson raced Azeri just to let Dwayne screw her up totally. There's a BIG difference between breeders that race and the guys that spend Millions of $$$ looking for the next precocious young horse to shuttle off to stud.

Easy Goer was as well bred as they come and was a terrific 2 year old. Did Mr Phipps shuttle him off to stud? Again, Mr Phipps was a breeder...not a high end buyer.

HeidiLady makes several good points, but let's take the case of Smarty Jones. He wasn't a superstar 2 year old and not bred to be anything special, but he's commanding a $100,000 stud fee before a foal hits the track. Suppose Smarty Jones stayed sound, he or raced until he was 5 years old and made 30 career starts. Wouldn't he then have fallen into the "breed to race" category? But he made only 8 starts - and the "commercial" market loves him.

Let's suppose Funny Cide hadn't been gelded. I think right now, he'd fall into the "breed to race" category. But, let's suppose he was retired right after the Belmont Stakes, just like Smarty Jones. I think he would have been retired as a "commercial" sire. He may not have panned out to be one, but I think he could have stood for $50,000 off the bat and gotten it.

Bluegrass Cat didn't have any speed and almost won the Belmont Stakes. Is there a perception about him that he'll sire precocious 2 year olds? Um....no. But he ran only 10 or so times - and the "commercial" market likes him - hence, the $50,000 stud fee.

Ghostzapper wasn't a speedy two year old, and would have raced more than one time as a 5 year old had he not been injured. But he did get injured and wound up racing only 11 times...and got mares at a $200,000 fee in his first season. Had Mr Stronach raced him until he was 6 and he made 30 starts, would he still be a "commercial" type stallion, or would he have fallen into the "breed to race" category?

I have to conclude that the commercial market really doesn't want a yearling that figures to run more than 10 times in its career. That's what makes a sire either "commercial" or "breed to race."

[mikec]

And here all along my Wife & I have been thinking we were absolutely the only nuts who felt that way.
You had me with Slew City Slew ! I need to revive that Bold Ruler line single handedly if I must.

[angelsprite]

Rockeby,
You are right about that consideration. It's an industry-wide misconception. Bloodstock agents are the ones who make these assessments. That's why I don't call myself a bloodstock agent. I'm a bloodstock "advisor." In my pedigree analysis, the more starts with good success, the more likely I am to recommend the stallion. I consider 30 starts to be an indication of soundness, especially if the horse is hitting the board in 50+% of those starts.
One racer in Captain Countdown's pedigree had more than 100 starts. Something like 130 starts.
The marketability of a stallion's progeny in this industry is based on graded wins, breeder's cup performances, top level stuff. Once the stallion gets progeny racing, if those babies don't perform in graded races, he's considered to be a less marketable stallion. Buyers at the sales aren't going to pay a million dollars for his babies. But how many babies are really going to go for a million anyway. If the stallion can manage a few horses that sell for 30K, I consider him to be marketable. The people who sold those babies made money on the deal.
People breeding for the track have more leeway. If they genuinely know they won't have to sell the foal, they can afford to breed a baby that they do not intend to sell, and that means they can have the pick of the good, reliable sires with many starts, etc. in their region.
The Prime Minister has had some high level performers, graded stakes performers, earners of several hundred thousand dollars, and he's the broodmare sire of Sinister Minister. But bloodstock agents view him as a claiming sire. Why? Because he's stuck here in Texas, mostly is bred to Mr. McDermott's stock, and Mr. McDermott races them with Bob Schults. Bob Schultz is not taking any horse anywhere but to SHRP or Lone Star for claimers and maybe allowance. Once in a blue moon he'll run a sprint stakes. He's older and he doesn't want to go to the war. He has a right to stay where he is and I'm not saying it's a bad thing. I'm saying, it creates a situation where we have a really nice stallion, 5 minutes from my farm, that I own a filly and a stallion by, and it didn't really cost all that much to buy one and breed the other. But, if I wanted to sell either one of them, I would be upside down on it. They just wouldn't be worth as much to anyone else.
If a stallion has fewer starts, a bloodstock agent will try to sell you on the idea that he was bred to breed, but I would say, that horse may not be the best one to keep in the gene pool. Of course, the faster they run, the more they tear themselves up, and people can infuse soundess with other lines. There are ways to work around the hype in this industry.

[George William Smith]

It's the quality of the pedigree.
It's the quality shown in quality races
It's the number of seasons presold or promised before retirement by the big players in the game for the first two seasons at stud

Did you know that many of these highly commercial horses are booked full before they have their retirement announced and money to pay the stud is often not enough to get you in on the action, no matter how much some players are willing to spend?

The value is set by the movers and shakers and then it becomes a matter of whether another year racing successfully will compensate for the loss of a foal crop.

There have been several big players that I have had as clients who could not get in on the action though they were made the Forbes List of the rich....and we are talking only July of the horse as a 3yo

[angelsprite]

George,
Yes, we know that Secretariat was syndicated at 2 years old for millions and Spectacular Bid was syndicated for 22,000,000 upon retirement. The syndicate members filled their books, etc. We're talking about stallions that breeders can breed to. Some KY stallions, many many regional stallions.
The movers and shakers have their playing field and the rest of the participants in the racing and breeding industry have their playing field. The two fields are separated by hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
I'm sure we would all love to play on their playing field, but I'm about 10 million dollars short of that in my bank account this year, so I have a tendency to think more along the lines of the 25th leading sire, rather than the #1 sire, or a regional sire that's doing pretty good.

[Rokeby Forever]

It's interesting how "breed to race" sires can become "commercial," but never the other way around. Examples:

Distorted Humor started off as a $10,000 "breed to race" sire. Now, he stands for $200,000 and the commercial market hopes he can sire some colts that can later sire precocious 2 year olds. Dynaformer was the ultimate "breed to race" sire. Many Dynaformers were gelded and he doesn't have many sons at stud, but now at $125,000, everyone wants a Dynaformer with a chance of making a son of his a stallion. They'll probably breed him more to speedier type mares now, forget what worked with him, and we'll wind up with Dynaformers being hyped all of a sudden.

On the other hand, hyped stallions like Exploit don't become "breed to race" when they don't sire precocious 2 year olds...they get shipped to Korea. Can you think of an overhyped stallion that is now considered "breed to race" and not toally discarded by the breeding world and/or banished to a place like Turkey?

[mikec]

Can't wait for The Green Monkey to run his six races, win a Gr. III along the way, and retire so I can rush my mares off to him for commercial purposes. Hope I can afford him !

[George William Smith]

George,
Yes, we know that Secretariat was syndicated at 2 years old for millions and Spectacular Bid was syndicated for 22,000,000 upon retirement. The syndicate members filled their books, etc. We're talking about stallions that breeders can breed to. Some KY stallions, many many regional stallions.
The movers and shakers have their playing field and the rest of the participants in the racing and breeding industry have their playing field. The two fields are separated by hundreds of millions of dollars a year.
I'm sure we would all love to play on their playing field, but I'm about 10 million dollars short of that in my bank account this year, so I have a tendency to think more along the lines of the 25th leading sire, rather than the #1 sire, or a regional sire that's doing pretty good.

Ah, the good old days of syndicating stallions and to which we have returned sort of in this century. Secretariat was a breed to race product. However, since Bold Ruler had no more foals coming and Secretariat was Horse of the Year, he was viewed as a great stallion prospect. Also, dad had died and had huge estate taxes to pay so he was syndicated for 6 million or a little more, don't remember.

Also you did not understand my post as I probably wrote it poorly. Sometimes makers and shakers don't have lots of $'s. More like real estate agents with the right connections [location all sown up for property development].

Give you a good example, get John Gaines to publicly say that this stallion prospect had lots of potential and that he was going to breed to him. They would then give John Gaines two shares in the horse/seasons. John Gaines really made no investment other than publicity and did breed to the horse, but then promptly sold the resultant foals / seasons / shares. When one of the guru's get in, then the investment heads commercial, but can later become breed to race when they fail to make almost everyone in the investment a good profit through sales of the foals.

[Rokeby Forever]

I don't think Secretariat was a "breed to race" product - I think they figured out too late with him that he needed a speedy type mare to cross well with him (Ribbon being the exception). Spectacular Bid was just a waste of time and money - what on his dam side made people think he'd ever become a successful sire?

Angelsprite....I don't mind playing on "our field" so much - I'll take my chances with a Cozzene, a Rahy, or even a Slew City Slew foal over an Unbridled's Song. Unbridled's Song had ONE Grade 1 winner in all of 2006 and people like his foals at a $343,000 average? Um....OK. I guess coming up with a Buddha or Songandaprayer is what they're looking for.

[George William Smith]

It's interesting how "breed to race" sires can become "commercial," but never the other way around. Examples:

Distorted Humor started off as a $10,000 "breed to race" sire. Now, he stands for $200,000 and the commercial market hopes he can sire some colts that can later sire precocious 2 year olds. Dynaformer was the ultimate "breed to race" sire. Many Dynaformers were gelded and he doesn't have many sons at stud, but now at $125,000, everyone wants a Dynaformer with a chance of making a son of his a stallion. They'll probably breed him more to speedier type mares now, forget what worked with him, and we'll wind up with Dynaformers being hyped all of a sudden.

On the other hand, hyped stallions like Exploit don't become "breed to race" when they don't sire precocious 2 year olds...they get shipped to Korea. Can you think of an overhyped stallion that is now considered "breed to race" and not toally discarded by the breeding world and/or banished to a place like Turkey?

Great point; Distorted Humor success initially came from Prather and Les I believe as they put the book together. Once the foals began to raceextremely well, I believe they played a much smaller, if any role. Clients who become successful OFTEN forget the major source of their success and do not share the success with their pedigree advisors. That's why we eat Kraft Dinner and bloodstock agents, golden tongued trainers, skillful vet continue to take their chunks out of the profit.

I never once thought of Exploit as commercial. The mover's and shakers were not in on Dynaformer so had nothing to gain. Happens a fair bit with good farms like Darby Dan that have lots of cash, but not as much respect as one would think in the business. Dynaformer was a decent 2yo but no blacktype and that worked against and like I say bred by Darby Dan who quite often had to make their own stallions.

Dynaformer was not a SW at two so this did not help him and really hurt him. Fortunately, did have a couple of clients that got really good foals after I got down on my knees and pleaded to breed to him. He was not commercial and performing at the sales. So even though money was not the problem, it is hard to get otherwise smart breeders to breed to a stallion that does not promise the huge backdoor of selling for a huge profit at the sales if the young stallion gets hot at the right time.

I tried for years to get Mrs. Payson to breed to Seattle Slew before he was gone, but it seemed everytime she went off the farm with a big mare, she came up empty. Finally, she relented and swung for three breedings, one of which was Vindication. Now that his first foals have sold really well, perhaps he will not only stay commercial but be a leading stallion and I can yell at the top of my lungs, A MATCHMAKER FOAL. Because that is all I will get to do. I have no part in him, nor was I offered any. That's the problem with my business. To her credit I did have lifetime breeding rights to Lac Ouimet, but when St. Jovite went off to stud [his full brother] and a few movers and shakers were on board, I was offered nothing, not even the screening his book for a paltry $35/mare.

Go Vindication Go!!!