juvenile curses

[wallinga]

I've noticed there are a few similarities between the richest Juvenile races in the world, the slipper and the BC Juvenile.

On paper they are different. The slipper is a 1200m 2yo scamper on turf for both sexes in the middle of the two year old season at Rosehill. The BC Juvenile is a 1700m 2yo test on Dirt for males at the end of the season on a moveable feast of tracks.

But they both seem to have fallen into a 'curse' which ensures that the winners are rarely as dominant again, the Kentucky Derby aside, it's been a long time since a Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has continued to excel at grade one level. (years ago it happened more often). The same can be said of the slipper, Miss Finland aside, it is not un-common for a slipper winner never to win again.

I'd be interested in hearing from you esteemed americans on the reason for the Juvie's failure as a long time proving ground.

I have a few theories on the slipper. Many slipper winners are super precocious or hammered early to win the one race and have nothing left afterwards, (bearing in mind that many have had at least 6 runs prior to the slipper) Colts and Fillies are also super valuable stud prospects and so are retired when the tarnish starts to come off. The geldings don't seem to develope between two and three. Not to mention the fact that our entire industry is obsessed with winning the slipper and so we have a bunch of Slipper horses (ie: speedy squibs, retiring to stud and passing on their inadequacies.

I'd be interested to hear if there are any similarities with the Juvie

[wilf]

Funny you should bring up this thread as this year I do feel that this current bunch are so ordinary that Street Sense could finally break the hoodoo, he is a tough honest horse that loves Churchill Downs and will be a fair price after a narrow defeat on the polytrack. As far as the Slipper goes many horses have gone on to greatness after taking part including Baguette, Octagonal and Beau Zam, however all I really need to say are three words, Manikato, Manikato, Manikato!!!

[geowarrior]

You're sure they're really ordinary, Wilf? I vacillate between thinking they are really ordinary and that they include some great ones.

[wallinga]

Funny you should bring up this thread as this year I do feel that this current bunch are so ordinary that Street Sense could finally break the hoodoo, he is a tough honest horse that loves Churchill Downs and will be a fair price after a narrow defeat on the polytrack. As far as the Slipper goes many horses have gone on to greatness after taking part including Baguette, Octagonal and Beau Zam, however all I really need to say are three words, Manikato, Manikato, Manikato!!!

I agree they've both produced some greats in the past, particularly the slipper. The juvie has got some good grads too, what about the inaugural winner Chiefs Crown? Star

[Rokeby Forever]

This field is worse than ordinary when a horse that's run only three times and has never competed in a Grade I is one of the favorites.

There are past Derby losers that would have destroyed this field.

[geowarrior]

There are past Derby losers that would have destroyed this field.

I think it's far too early to say that. All you can say about Curlin is that he hasn't run much. He might be something really special or he might fold when the heat is on. Some of the others might be great but late maturing horses (e.g. Tiago).

[Rokeby Forever]

Geo...EVERYONE in the field should be late maturing - how much have they raced?

And, gimme a break! Alydar, Easy Goer, and even Empire Maker would have crushed this field.