Beyer and Ragozin for the Preakness

[Pete]

Hi Folks,

I don't put much stock in the numbers (though I think the Rags are more accurate) but a little game of guess the numbers for the Preakness.

My predictions:

Curlin gets a Beyer of 116, Street Sense 115.

Curlin gets a Ragozin of 0, Street Sense a tad higher.

I think Curlin deserves a 118 and Street Sense 117.

Regards,

Pete

[Rokeby Forever]

What was Flying First Class's number? Nice job, Dwayne!

Beyer numbers are bullshit...the guy wears glasses 3X as thick as mine. What was that original number he gave Summer Doldrums this spring? LOL!!!

[Pete]

Hi Rokeby,

Umm, this was a game of guessing the number, not commenting on it. Been there, done that. Care to venture a guess?

Regards,

Pete

[llbean]

I wouldn't be surprised by a 121 for Curlin and 121 for Street Sense.

So I guess those are my guesses.

-llbean

[Pete]

Hi Bean,

I'd be surprised to see Curlin get a 121 but there's a case to be made for such a lofty mark. The maintenance crew did a fine job keeping the dirt track fast all day and the times were good but not spectacular with the exception of the big race that had fast fractions and winning time.

Regards,

Pete

[TJ]

Hi Pete,
Thought you would like to know, Curlin and Street Sense both recieved a 111 beyer for the Preakness. TJ

[Rokeby Forever]

I just called a friend that's a Beyer guru, and he told me for the Preakness:

Smarty Jones 118
Funny Cide 117
Bernardini 113
Afleet Alex 112

Beyer will always discriminate against horses that don't win by open lengths.

In this Preakness, there were legitimate fractions and both horses tied the existing track record...why is it rated six points lower than Funny Cide's effort? Because Funny Cide beat a nobody field by 10 lengths?

[Pete]

Hi TJ,

Thanks for the update.

It's a sad state of affairs when a company is incompetent at creating their own product.

Horse, Time, Beyer
Hansel, 1:54.0, 117
Tabasco Cat, 1:56.2, 112
Silver Charm, 1:54.4, 118
Real Quiet, 1:54.3, 111
Point Given, 1:55.2, 111
Curlin, 1:53.2, 111

Foolish Curlin and Street Sense should have slowed down - they would have had a better Beyer.

Regards,

Pete

[Pete]

Hi Rokeby,

Beyer will always discriminate against horses that don't win by open lengths

I didn't know this and it makes sense, well, not that it makes sense it explains why the numbers are so screwed up.

Then in theory the winner of a walkover gets an infinity Beyer that is noted with the sideways 8?

Should we assume that Andy (Beyer) never saw Affirmed and Alydar or that he had no idea about what he was watching?

Regards,

Pete

[Rokeby Forever]

Pete,

Alysheba NEVER earned a good number. Why? Because he never ran faster than he had to.

Beyer HATED Alysheba going into the Derby because of his low numbers. Think about it.

Let's consider Bernardini and Invasor last year. Bernardini would demolish fields - Invasor was more workmanlike. Going into the BC Classic, which horse had the better numbers? What was the result?

About Affirmed...what was Affirmed's Beyer in the Preakness? If he could outgame Alydar, is there any reason to think he couldn't outgame Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, or anyone else that got a big Preakness number? I never heard about the number...have you? Probably only a 110 because he won by a head (just my guess).

While Affirmed was winning workmanlike races in California before the Derby, Alydar was demolishing fields in Florida and Kentucky. Alydar, despite losing to Affirmed 4 times, was the actual Derby betting favorite. Do you suppose Alydar's spring numbers might have been reason, and that they were inflated because of his margins of victory? Of course I'm assuming that Alydar had better numbers than did Affirmed that spring...but using the Bernardini/Invasor example, it's not farfetched, is it?

I've read lots of Beyer pertaining to Spectacular Bid numbers. Anything written about the number that Affirmed got in the JCGC when he beat The Bid? Probably no better than Affirmed's number when he lost to Seattle Slew.

Regards,
The Rok

[chicago78]

Beyer also often gives inflated numbers to horses that win wire to wire. Don't know why. I think the track was in perfect condition for a huge race, with the light rain shower about twenty minutes before they ran. The sheets are much better numbers to go off of for most races, no question.

[petersd]

Here's whyI don't trust Beyer numbers.
In November 2005, as a 2 year old, my filly broke her maiden by 11 at Bay Meadows in 1:09. The result - a sparkling 93 Beyer. Based partially off that, I sold half of her for a good chunk of money. For the record, Equibase scored it a 109, and Ragozin gave her a 6.
We ran her in the Cal Breeders Stakes the following month. She had the lead at the top of the lane, but tired to 9th. The DRF still showed the 93 the day of the race.
After that, we next ran her in an allowance race. Mysteriously, the Beyer from her maiden race had dropped to a 79 in the DRF. She won by 9, went 1:08 4/5, and got a 103 Beyer.
Next race (a minor stakes at Golden Gate), the Beyer from the original maiden race jumped back to an 84, where it stayed the rest of her career.
Beyer apparently has not problem changing past form to reflect the present. I completely understand changing a number right after the race becaue of a closer look at the track, average times for the day, etc. But this kind of revisionist history is ridiculous.
And since Beyer owns all the prior history, the only reason I knew of the changes was because I kept the old DRF's. The poor average bettor knew nothing.

[Rokeby Forever]

That's 100% right Peter, and thanks for adding that piont!

That's how Summer Douldrums got screwed up this winter. Beyer gave the horse a 106 off a win, and Rick Violette thought he'd have to ease up on the horse before its next start or it would bounce. The day before Summer Douldrums ran again, his number was changed to a 94...and Rick Violette wound up running a short horse in the Gotham Mile because of it - he would have trained the horse as he always had if he didn't think the horse would bounce.

Now, Rick Violette should know better than to train a horse according to numbers, but he does have a valid reason to punch Beyer in the nose.

I still don't know how Commendable's Belmont earned a 102. If the race was a 5K claimer and run just as fast, it would have earned a 50 - that Belmont could have been timed with an hourglass!

Beside, look at Beyer....I don't trust a guy that's uglier than I am. LOL!

[Foggytrip]

Violette should be the one punched in the nose for not knowing where his colt was at.

Beyers, Ragz, Equibase, any number should be taken with a grain of salt. Some horses just run as fast as they need to so how can you judge their talent on a set figure? Its impossible. The ragz are a good gauge, but you cannot apply a number to each horses and think its going to be replicated everytime the horse goes to the gate.

[Pete]

Hi Foggytrip,

I with you.

You get what you pay for with any numerical system that attempts to quantify horses.

Rokeby,
If Rick Violette trained based on a Beyer he should lose his license.

Regards,

Pete