I have a new fav track

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 4:09 pm

MOUNTINEER PARK!

I usually don't bet on races where I can not view the horses past video replays. i like to see the horses run.

Well up utnil I think a week ago I couldn't find them.. however racereplays just added all the "night tracks" to their program.. penn, CT, Mountineer.

I've always been intrigued by mountaineer..

No later than the first race today.. I saw a horse in a 5k claimer that was clearly on the up and up.. getting better and better.., just came in 2nd in a higher level.. AND JUST WENT OFF AT 14 TO 1! mainly because there was a storm cat gelding (imagine that.. a storm cat in a 5k claimer) and there was another horse who had great beyers... however every race he ran in he never passed anyone.

I promptly placed my bet... there was nothing else even remotely close to his form at least in my eyes... I liked another horse but the way he was moving on the track I threw him out...

I haven't had an easier winner all year long. won by 5 going away.

The track always intrigued me because beyer speed figure players have a hell of a time with the track because when you deal with claimers that ow.. it's not about how fast they can run.. all of them at one point where good enough to win the race.. it's how healthy are they going into the race.

HR LLC · Postby **HR LLC** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 5:05 pm

you will go broke playing that track on a consistent basis...I think its the hardest track to handicap in the world.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 5:21 pm

HR LLC wrote:you will go broke playing that track on a consistent basis...I think its the hardest track to handicap in the world.

I just hit J JACQUELINE in the 4th race... $14 bucks

I had Pie Corner in the 2nd.. came in 2nd.. didn't run to bad, and I thought the fav might win on the drop however I took a chance on if he would take to the turf.... he did

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 5:38 pm

BDW, best of luck at Mtr. I have Dish Network and get Mtr. on both HRTV and TVG.

Perhaps you can post a few of your picks prior to post time-you can wait till the last minute if you're concerned that you're letting the cat out of the bag.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 5:41 pm

i recently sold my house and I'm moving next week into an apartment until the end of the year so that thenI can move to SoCal... so I cut off my Dish NW (I miss MIlllie

) but i get live feeds..

in the 5th I liked Final Decision but I also can't throw out Mr. Lion's last win.. as hard as I tried.. and McGeever might be better than both but has had 2 years off... so I stayed out the race

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 5:44 pm

i took a stand against morethanrisque because her last race although at 8k instead of 5.. was horrible and wasn't even anywhere in contention any time of the race.. to me I didn't see value at 5/2.. usually I like to see a dropper contend at SOME point.

glad I stayed out... final decision almost had it

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 5:59 pm

man I have absolutely no clue in the 6th.. I can see 5 horses winning... See the thunder, rocketry, cheif assembly and ROYAL DUMAANI

I don't like any more than the others.. I wanted to lean towards See the thunder but ah..I just can't do it. If you put a gun to my head.. Rocketry.. simply because he is 4 and the others are 3 and he's on his game.. but I haven't seen any winning type perforaances out of this race.

i wouldn't completely throw out HERNON'S CULL

one thing about Mountaineer.. if you like a horse... you 9 out of 10 times can get a price you like.. however when I think half the field has a shot to win I don't bet.

KamiBrooks · Postby **KamiBrooks** » Sun Jul 22, 2007 11:19 pm

Are you going to do tomorrow night? I'd love to see what/who you pick. Can you post link to where you're able to watch them before the race?

I don't know anything about handicapping, but I'll look through the program and see who I would pick. I'd love to see who you pick just to learn/compare.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 12:06 am

i'm handicapping as we speak.

For the record, I had the horse that shipped from Golden Gate in It hink the 5th or 6th.. he didn't do to well. I wasn't oging to bet him.. that almoost 2 month layoff scared me, but when you can get 19 to 1 on a horse that won in the last race in pretty much the same condition.. you take him and run.

I had the 8th race winner.. but that was a 1 horse race if there ever was one.

I had the 10th as well which was a little tricker, however I didn't place a bet because my GF called me complaining about not wanting to pick up something ot eat and I missed the post time. I am getting spoiled with these odds and I don't think i would have taken 7/2 anyway.

When I'm done I will post what i have.

handicapping is definattly my strong suit.. although I know 10x more about pedigrees than when I came here.. I still have a way to go to catch up with my handicapping ability. The ovbious I can spot... Rahy on the turf... Pretty much Rahy anything. who can sprint, who can go long, etc...

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 2:19 pm

Okay here you go

Race 1: There are a legit 4 horses that to me have just about equal ability..which I don't see a justifiable bet. I'm not going to get odds that I like or will take on any of them..so I am passing.

Race 2: I cannot bet against Saribiana in this race.

Race 3: Not going to make any money betting AGAINST CHANCE ROMANCE. You MIGHT and I do mean MIGHT win the battle but long term you will loose the war.

I don't bet on 2YO races.. so I skipped races 4 and 5

Race 6 : Suddenly Thrilled is the horse to beat. Jusandothernikita and Red Dress Devil are just going to have to beat me, class droppers who have should NOTHING in the past.

Race 7: For this race I'm going ot Assume that Kilkenny is just that much better.. even if Sing city is good enough...I wouldn't feel comfortable betting against Kilkenny. Kilkenney won by at least 9 in a Maiden 5k claimer 2 races ago, was jumped to allowence and had a valid excuse (off track... and didn't do ALL that bad)

Race 8: OH my gosh this was a tough race... there are 3 horsesw ho are good enough to win, but in the end only one doesn't have an excuse to be thrown out. I am going ot go with buccaneer Fever. He is the only consistent horse in the bunch. YOu are going to get a price on him, or at least you should.

Race 9:All and all.. too many options for this race.. PASS.. fy ou are just playing for fun ... take a stab at a price with collegeville kid. Good Versus Bad could win it but I think hte two have equal or darn near equal ability and collegeville kid is going to get better odds.

Race 10 tough race as well.. I see three horses that can win this race.... I am staying out.

All in all, because well.. I actually try to make money, there are only 2, maybe 3 races I will end up playing. I know I am going to get some action on the 8th race.. Imight get some on the 3rd and the 6th as well.

KamiBrooks · Postby **KamiBrooks** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 5:48 pm

I never got through them. Was going through tonights races with trainer on phone and you and she are pretty close in who you picked. The only one I knew for sure was Kilkenny in 6 because I know the owner.

Now I need to go through the book and compare your picks to see why you made them.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:11 pm

even though I lost the 2nd, i was spot on... Saribiana was the best horse.. jockey on the turf gave his best "stewart elliot/Mario Pino" impresination.. moved about 1/8th too early in front of a horse that had no chance in hell of winning and got nabbed by a nose.

the 3rd my horse got scratched

the race that just passed, the 6th... I had the 2nd palce finisher, but I'm not taken freaken even money on an 0 for 36 horse. you can forget that. with that said the horse that won I had figured COULD win (see above).. they were going to have to prove to me that they had run. more times htan not horses like that just don't like running.

I haven't been able to make a bet all day. you have to be patient to find a suitable race with the odds you like.. I got 3 yesterday.. I think I will have one in the 8th.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:14 pm

KamiBrooks wrote:I never got through them. Was going through tonights races with trainer on phone and you and she are pretty close in who you picked. The only one I knew for sure was Kilkenny in 6 because I know the owner.

Now I need to go through the book and compare your picks to see why you made them.

I"m glad you just ave me that vote of confidence because that is not a 2/5 horse and Sing City is not a 10/1 horse (what he is going to go off at).. so you just saved me a bet.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Mon Jul 23, 2007 6:34 pm

owww I saw that one coming... but I didn't have the winner. You don't drop a horse that won by 10 in for 5k claiming. he didn't embarass himself in allowence. I would have had sing city but I didn'tlike 6 to 1...